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    SpaceWeather updates

    Carol
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    Post  Carol Tue Oct 11, 2022 11:24 am


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDdmjDjK__Y
    10/09/2022 -- Whole Pacific Starts moving -- M6.2 strikes MID ATLANTIC -- and an EPIC RANT from me!
    ==

    COUNTING CMEs IS TRICKIER THAN YOU THINK: Space weather forecasters have a problem: Too many CMEs. Almost every day now, the sun is hurling multiple CMEs into space. Many are faint; some overlap; they go in all directions. Take yesterday for example:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 24hours_2

    It can be confusing. Play the movie again. How many distinct CMEs did you count? There are at least 4 and possibly as many as 7. It depends on how you interpret some of the overlaps and whether or not one very faint halo CME is in your imagination.

    Studies show that the sun typically produces anywhere from 4 to 10 CMEs per day during years around Solar Maximum. The rate can be so large that even seasoned observers can disagree about the number on any given day. Misidentifications throw off forecasting models and cause some CMEs to be overlooked altogether.

    Solar Cycle 25 is ramping up to that level now. Indeed, that's why some recent CMEs have taken us by surprise, producing unexpected geomagnetic storms, while other CMEs expected to hit Earth have failed to materialize. It's the kind of situation that calls for a CME Alert System.

    Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter

    SOLAR FLARES AND RADIO BLACKOUTS (UPDATED): Underachieving sunspot AR3112 finally exploded on Oct. 10th--twice--producing a pair of M-class solar flares. (Movies: #1, #2) Twin pulses of radiation ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere and caused radio blackouts over the South Pacific and South America:


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    Post  Carol Sat Oct 15, 2022 8:34 am

    GEOMAGNETIC UNREST: Earth's magnetic field is disturbed today as our planet moves into a high-speed stream of solar wind. A minor G1-class geomagnetic storm broke out during the early hours of Oct. 15th, then quickly subsided. Minor storm conditions could recur throughout the day. Solar wind
    speed: 534.6 km/sec


    A 'CANYON OF FIRE' JUST OPENED ON THE SUN: A plume of hot plasma more than 300,000 km long arced over the southwestern edge of the sun during the early hours of Oct. 15th. Beneath it, a 'canyon of fire' opened:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 Canyonoffire_strip

    This weird explosion hurled a bright CME into space. First-look images from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) do not yet rule out a glancing blow to Earth early next week.


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    Post  Carol Sun Nov 06, 2022 11:13 am

    ALL QUIET: Solar activity is low. There are plenty of sunspots, but they all have stable magnetic fields that pose no immediate threat for strong explosions. NOAA forecasters say there is a 5% chance of M-class flares and no more than a 1% chance of X-flares on Nov. 6th.

    21 YEARS AGO, A SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM: It could happen again--and soon. Twenty-one years ago today, a full-halo CME struck Earth's magnetic field, sparking a severe G4-class geomagnetic storm. "Skies over Central Europe glowed bright red and violet," recalls Heiko Ulbricht, who photographed the display from Saxony, Germany, on Nov. 6, 2001:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 Heiko-Ulbricht-Polarlicht_1667690000_strip

    "The shock front hit the Earth's magnetic field around 2 a.m. CET--good timing for sky watchers in Europe," says Ulbricht. From there, auroras spread around the world, descending as far south as Florida, Texas, and California in the United States. The storm persisted for more than 24 hours.

    The CME left the sun two days earlier, propelled by an X1-class solar flare from sunspot AR9684. SOHO coronagraph images of the CME were quickly overwhelmed by a "snowstorm" of energetic particles accelerated by shock waves in the approaching storm cloud

    The kind of explosion that produced this storm is, interestingly, not rare. Young Solar Cycle 25 has already produced 8 similar X-flares since 2021. None of the related CMEs delivered a direct hit, however.

    "If you look at the sun today, it could definitely produce a spectacle of this kind again," says Ulbricht. Browse the aurora gallery from 21 years ago to see what might be coming.



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    Post  Carol Sat Dec 10, 2022 9:53 am

    THIS EXPLOSION MIGHT HIT EARTH: Yesterday, Dec. 9th, a magnetic filament in the sun's southern hemisphere erupted, possibly hurling a fraction of itself into space: movie. SOHO coronagraph movies are inconclusive. A faint CME might have left the blast site. If so, it could jolt Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 12th. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

    THIS EXPLOSION DEFINITELY WON'T: The sun just shot an interestingly narrow stream of plasma into space. SOHO coronagraphs watched it jet away from the southwestern limb of the sun on Dec. 9th:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 Jet_crop_strip_opt

    This was no ordinary CME. The jet was less than 50 thousand km wide at its base, but it stretched more than 15 million km into space. Coherent blob-like structures can be seen traveling down the stream as the eruption progresses.

    The underlying physics of this event is a bit of a mystery. It might be a strangely skinny helmet streamer. Helmet streamers are magnetic arches rooted in the sun, which are sculpted and stretched by the solar wind. They're normally 10 to 100 times wider than this one, though.

    One thing is certain: It won't hit Earth. Maybe next time.


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    Post  Carol Tue Dec 20, 2022 6:20 am

    Mysterious shock wave CRACKS Earth's magnetosphere that protects our planet from dangerous space radiation

    A mysterious shock wave hit Earth last night and cracked the region that protects us from radiation. While scientists do not know its origin, they believe it came from a solar flare from the sun.

    > While the shock wave's origin is unknown, scientists believe it came from a crackling sunspot that released eight solar flares on December 14
    > The crack can stay open for hours and allow solar winds to flow through
    > The ejection may have been released from sunspot AR3165, which launched at least eight solar flares into space on December 14 that caused blackouts over the Atlantic Ocean, according to Space Weather.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-11555663/Mysterious-shock-wave-CRACKS-Earths-magnetosphere.html
    ==

    CHANCE OF MINOR STORMS THIS WEEK: NOAA forecasters say there is a chance of minor G1-class geomagnetic storms on Dec. 21st when a side-by-side pair of solar wind streams are expected to graze Earth's magnetic field. The gaseous material is flowing from a double hole in the sun's atmosphere.

    UNIQUE PHOTO OF A SOLAR PROMINENCE: This may be the only photo of its kind. On Dec. 13th, Jamie Shepherd of Lochearnhead, Scotland, photographed a solar prominence--without a solar telescope, without a solar eclipse, and without a coronagraph. All it took was the edge of a mountain:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 Scottishprom_strip

    "Around the winter solstice, if I step outside my front door, I can see the sun rising from behind a large rocky outcrop, the lower summit of Stùc a' Chròin," explains Shepherd. "It's just the right shape and distance to cover the sun, like my own solar eclipse, every Christmas."

    "Other than a sunrise though, can any eclipse phenomena be seen? It's not easy to catch a clear sky at that time of day in December, but this year I was lucky. I took a burst of pictures with a hand-held telephoto just as the sun appeared. Amazingly, a pink prominence could be made out."

    "Just to be sure," continues Shepherd, "I stacked the pictures in a sequence to show the prominence tracking to the right as the sun rose. Confirmation came from an Australian National Solar Observatory image just 10 minutes prior. I have added it below in the stack."
    ==




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    Post  Carol Wed Dec 21, 2022 9:34 am

    Another crack has opened in earth’s magnetic field. G1 solar storm incoming

    According to an aurora alert from spaceweather.com, a minor crack is opening in earths magnetic field. This can be seen in the sharp drop in the red line in the first segment of the graph below

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 PZOFEpHl
    https://imgur.com/a/iBiPM1j

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind

    There is a G1 geomagnetic storm expected in the early hours of 12/21. What happens if this arrives when our magnetic field is breached?

    [imgur] https://imgur.com/a/ku2rVfQ[/imgur]

    https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/aurora-forecast.html

    There is a G1 geomagnetic storm expected in the early hours of 12/21. What happens if this arrives when our magnetic field is breached?

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 YjNqixIl

    https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/aurora-forecast.html

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 VAYoX24l

    Around 48 hours ago, a similar crack opened in the earths magnetic field:

    A shock wave in the solar wind hit Earth's magnetic field during the late hours of Dec. 18th. The impact opened a crack in our planet's magnetosphere, setting the stage for possible G1-class geomagnetic storms on Dec. 19th. (Source: spaceweather.com)

    There is also a G1 geomagnetic storm forecasted:

    NOAA forecasters say there is a chance of minor G1-class geomagnetic storms on Dec. 21st when a side-by-side pair of solar wind streams are expected to graze Earth's magnetic field. The gaseous material is flowing from a double hole in the sun's atmosphere (https://spaceweather.com/)

    A record 20+ M-class flares fired off from the sun 12/14-18

    A shock wave barreled into Earth's magnetic field and cracked its magnetosphere, which protects our planet from space radiation
    While the shock wave's origin is unknown, scientists believe it came from a crackling sunspot that released eight solar flares on December 14
    The crack can stay open for hours and allow solar winds to flow through

    Mysterious shock wave CRACKS Earth's magnetosphere that protects our planet from dangerous space radiation
    https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/12/19/21/65748507-11555663-image-m-84_1671485945624.jpg

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-11555663/Mysterious-shock-wave-CRACKS-Earths-magnetosphere.html
    ==

    Looks like the opening may be closing for now - BsubZ (red line in first section) back up from below -10. Will be interesting to watch the magnetic field as the solar wind arrives
    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind

    Planetary K index now at Kp = 3

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index
    Up to Kp = 5 expected later today



    ==

    -50 wind chill factor Billings, MT
    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 MjvloZ1l
    https://i.imgur.com/MjvloZ1l.jpg
    ==

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 NrSX6KZl
    4.3 earthquake today in Ferndale, CA after the 6.4 overnight
    ==

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 7sFE7oFl


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mlVhswYead4&feature=emb_logo
    Magnetic Pole Shift | The Most Important Disaster
    ==


    https://youtu.be/OwKaI8u464M
    Black Hole Blasts Earth's Magnetic Field


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    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Wed Jan 04, 2023 11:31 am

    CME IMPACT JOLTS EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD: As predicted, a coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field on Jan. 4th (0254 UT). The impact jolted magnetometers around the world with the Canberra station in Australia registering a sudden impulse of 38 nT. It also ignited a G1-class geomagnetic storm. Pilot Matt Melnyk photographed the light show from 30,000 ft above Alberta, Canada:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 Redeye_strip
    https://spaceweather.com/images2023/04jan23/redeye_strip.jpg

    "We witnessed an amazing aurora display from the flight deck of a red-eye flight from Edmonton to Toronto!" says Melnyk. "The show lasted the entire flight."

    The storm has subsided now, but it could re-kindle itself as Earth passes through the CME's magnetized wake. Also, a solar wind stream is expected to arrive on Jan. 5th, which could extend storm conditions for the next 24 hours.


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    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Mon Jan 09, 2023 3:31 pm

    INCREASING CHANCE OF FLARES: One X-class solar flare already happened today (see below) and more could follow. The sun now has two large, unstable sunspots capable of producing very strong explosions: AR3182 and AR3184. Both are turning to face Earth, increasing the odds of geoeffective flares this week. X-flare alerts: SMS Text.

    X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected an X1.9-class solar flare (Jan. 9th @ 1850 UT). The source is hyperactive sunspot AR3184, now emerging over the sun's southeastern limb. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the flare's extreme ultraviolet flash:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 X2_red_4096_strip

    Radiation from the flare ioniozed the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a shortwave radio blackout centered on the Pacific side of South America: blackout map. Mariners, aviators and ham radio operators may have noticed fadeouts and other unusual propagation effects at frequencies below ~25 MHz.

    This was an impulsive solar flare--intense but probably too brief to lift a coronal mass ejection (CME) out of the sun's atmosphere. It is too soon, however, to rule out the possibility of debris heading our way. Pending data from SOHO coronagraphs will reveal any CMEs in the hours ahead.

    Meanwhile, it is interesting to zoom out and see what the whole sun did around the time of the X-flare. There were 5 nearly simultaneous eruptions

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 Fivesites_lab_arrow

    Going off like popcorn, these five sites erupted in a time window shorter than 90 minutes despite some of them being separated by as much as a million kilometers. Coincidence? Maybe not. Researchers discovered long ago that magnetic instabilities can ignite rapidfire explosions across the entire face of the sun. This appears to be such a case.

    The collective effect of these disturbances may yet send a CME our way.


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Mon Jan 09, 2023 3:35 pm

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 Wolfmoon1_strip

    "I forgot my headlamp at home," he says. "No problem. The Wolf Moon provided all the illumination we needed. Watching the huskies' moon shadows race across the snow was a magical experience."


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    Post  Carol Sat Jan 21, 2023 8:20 am

    CHANCE OF FLARES: NOAA forecasters say there is a 60% chance of M-class solar flares and a 15% chance of X-flares today. The most likely source is giant sunspot AR3190, which is directly facing Earth. Solar flare alerts: Solar wind speed: 497.0 km/sec

    GIANT SUNSPOT: There's a big dark spot in the middle of the sun. David J Kriegler saw it last night at sunset over Gulf Shores, Alabama:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 Sunset_strip

    This is AR3190, one of the largest sunspots of surging Solar Cycle 25. "It's almost five times the diameter of Earth, and could be seen through the thick humid atmosphere over the Gulf of Mexico," says Kriegler.

    The scale of AR3190 makes it an easy target for amateur astronomers. You don't even need a solar telescope. Eclipse glasses work, too. You might have some old ones left over from 2017; if not, here's where you can get a new pair.

    Caution: Sunset photos like Kriegler's are possible, but be careful. Even when the sun is dimmed by low clouds or haze, looking directly through the camera can damage your eyes. Always use the LCD screen for viewfinding.


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    Post  Carol Sat Feb 11, 2023 2:18 pm

    A DANGEROUS SUNSPOT: Sunspot AR3217 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Indeed, it just unleashed one (see below). The sunspot is turning toward Earth so any flares this weekend are likely to be geoeffective. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text.

    SOLAR FLARE AND RADIO BLACKOUT: Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected an X1.1-class solar flare from sunspot AR3217 (Feb. 11th @ 1548 UTC). Extreme UV radiation ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a strong shortwave radio blackout over South America:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 X1_red_anim_strip

    Ham radio operators, aviators, and mariners may have noticed unusual propagation effects at frequencies below 30 MHz for as much as an hour after the flare.

    This was an impulsive flare, intense and fast. It may not have lasted long enough to lift a CME out of the sun's atmosphere. Confirmation awaits fresh data from SOHO coronagraphs.


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    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Fri Mar 03, 2023 6:48 am

    GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on March 4th and 5th in response to an incoming CME. Hurled into space by the M8.6-class flare of Feb. 28th, the CME is not heading directly for Earth. Instead it will deliver only a glancing blow when it arrives. Solar wind speed: 587.6 km/sec

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 Sunspotcounts_strip

    SOLAR CYCLE UPDATE: February was another strong month for Solar Cycle 25. According to NOAA, the average sunspot number was among the highest of the past 10 years:

    Originally, forecasters thought Solar Cycle 25 would be about the same as Solar Cycle 24, one of the weakest solar cycles in a century. February's sunspot numbers are the latest sign that Solar Cycle 25 will exceed predictions. In fact, Solar Cycle 25 has outperformed the official forecast for more than 24 months in a row.

    Solar Maximum is not expected until 2024 or 2025, so the solar cycle has plenty of time to strengthen even more, bringing additional X-flares, geomagnetic storms and auroras.

    A HUGE AURORA, SWIRLING LIKE CRAZY: This was not in the forecast. During the early hours of March 3rd, a crack opened in Earth's magnetic field. Solar wind poured through the gap, sparking a light show over Kemi, Finland:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 Crazy_strip

    "I was spending the night in a cabin in the forest," says photographer Giorgio Baldi. "I went outside at 2 a.m. and saw this huge aurora swirling like crazy!"

    This was an isolated episode--the kind of auroral outburst that will become more common as we move deeper into March. Researchers call it the "Russell-McPherron effect." During weeks around equinoxes, cracks form in Earth's magnetic field. Even weak streams of solar wind can penetrate to spark a good display.


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    Post  Carol Tue Mar 07, 2023 9:51 am

    THE SOLAR WIND IS BLOWING FAST: Earth has entered a stream of solar wind blowing faster than 600 km/s (1.3 million mph). This could cause geomagnetic unrest or even a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm around the poles today. Arctic sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

    SUNSPOT MEITOSIS: Sunspot AR3245 is splitting in two. This 24-hour movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the sunspot's primary core dividing like a eukaryotic cell as it turns toward Earth:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 Splitup

    The bright, linear gap between the sunspot's two halves is known as a "light bridge." It measures 20,000 km from end to end.

    The nature of light bridges is not fully understood. They often herald the break-up of a sunspot, with jets of plasma shooting up from the chasm as the sunspot decays. Some research suggests that magnetic fields at the base of a light bridge are busy cross-crossing and reconnecting--the same explosive process that sparks solar flares.

    Does this mean sunspot AR3245 will explode--or quietly fall apart? No one can say.


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    Post  Carol Sun Mar 12, 2023 1:53 pm

    POSSIBLE GLANCING-BLOW CME TODAY: NOAA forecasters say that a CME might deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field today, March 12th. It left the sun on March 8th, taking at least 4 days to cross the sun-Earth divide. This makes it a slow-mover. Even slow, off-target CMEs, however, can spark bright auroras around the Arctic Circle; sky watchers at high latitudes should be alert for Northern Lights.

    DARK PLASMA PROMINENCE ERUPTION (UPDATED): Yesterday, a huge tube of magnetism filled with dark plasma erupted from the southwestern limb of the sun. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the prominence hurling itself into space:

    "Dark plasma" is not a special kind of plasma; it's just cooler and less luminous than the background sun. It is also denser than gas in the surrounding solar atmosphere.

    This relatively dark material formed the core of a CME, which was seen flying away from the sun by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). NOAA analysts have modeled the CME and determined that it could graze Earth's magnetic field on March 15th, producing a G1-class geomagnetic storm.


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    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Wed Mar 22, 2023 8:22 pm

    GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: NOAA forecasters say that G2-class (Moderate) geomagnetic storms are possible on March 24th when solar wind flowing from a large hole in the sun's atmosphere is expected to reach Earth. During such storms, auroras have been seen in the USA as far south as, e.g., New York and Idaho. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

    A SOLAR RADIO BURST AT NIGHT: Something rare and strange happened last month. On Feb. 23rd, growing sunspot AR3234 produced an M-class solar flare. It was nearly midnight in Florida when the explosion occurred, so you'd expect no one there to notice. On the contrary, in the community of High Springs, FL, amateur radio astronomer Dave Typinski recorded a strong shortwave radio burst.

    "You CAN see the sun at midnight in Florida... sometimes," says Typinski. This is what his instruments recorded while the flare was underway:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 Dynspec_strip

    A double wave of static washed over Florida, filling the radio spectrum with noise at all frequencies below 25 MHz. "The Sun was 69° below the horizon when this happened," he marvels.

    How is this possible? The entire body of our planet was blocking the event from Typinski's antenna. It's called "antipodal focusing." First postulated by Marconi more than 100 years ago, antipodal focusing is a mode of radio propagation in which a signal starts out on one side of the planet, gets trapped between Earth's surface and the ionosphere, and travels to the opposite hemisphere. Waves converging at the antipode can create a surprisingly strong signal.



    _________________
    What is life?
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    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol

      Current date/time is Sat Mar 25, 2023 12:57 pm