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    SpaceWeather updates

    Carol
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    Post  Carol Tue Oct 11, 2022 11:24 am


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDdmjDjK__Y
    10/09/2022 -- Whole Pacific Starts moving -- M6.2 strikes MID ATLANTIC -- and an EPIC RANT from me!
    ==

    COUNTING CMEs IS TRICKIER THAN YOU THINK: Space weather forecasters have a problem: Too many CMEs. Almost every day now, the sun is hurling multiple CMEs into space. Many are faint; some overlap; they go in all directions. Take yesterday for example:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 24hours_2

    It can be confusing. Play the movie again. How many distinct CMEs did you count? There are at least 4 and possibly as many as 7. It depends on how you interpret some of the overlaps and whether or not one very faint halo CME is in your imagination.

    Studies show that the sun typically produces anywhere from 4 to 10 CMEs per day during years around Solar Maximum. The rate can be so large that even seasoned observers can disagree about the number on any given day. Misidentifications throw off forecasting models and cause some CMEs to be overlooked altogether.

    Solar Cycle 25 is ramping up to that level now. Indeed, that's why some recent CMEs have taken us by surprise, producing unexpected geomagnetic storms, while other CMEs expected to hit Earth have failed to materialize. It's the kind of situation that calls for a CME Alert System.

    Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter

    SOLAR FLARES AND RADIO BLACKOUTS (UPDATED): Underachieving sunspot AR3112 finally exploded on Oct. 10th--twice--producing a pair of M-class solar flares. (Movies: #1, #2) Twin pulses of radiation ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere and caused radio blackouts over the South Pacific and South America:


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    Post  Carol Sat Oct 15, 2022 8:34 am

    GEOMAGNETIC UNREST: Earth's magnetic field is disturbed today as our planet moves into a high-speed stream of solar wind. A minor G1-class geomagnetic storm broke out during the early hours of Oct. 15th, then quickly subsided. Minor storm conditions could recur throughout the day. Solar wind
    speed: 534.6 km/sec


    A 'CANYON OF FIRE' JUST OPENED ON THE SUN: A plume of hot plasma more than 300,000 km long arced over the southwestern edge of the sun during the early hours of Oct. 15th. Beneath it, a 'canyon of fire' opened:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 Canyonoffire_strip

    This weird explosion hurled a bright CME into space. First-look images from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) do not yet rule out a glancing blow to Earth early next week.


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    Post  Carol Sun Nov 06, 2022 11:13 am

    ALL QUIET: Solar activity is low. There are plenty of sunspots, but they all have stable magnetic fields that pose no immediate threat for strong explosions. NOAA forecasters say there is a 5% chance of M-class flares and no more than a 1% chance of X-flares on Nov. 6th.

    21 YEARS AGO, A SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM: It could happen again--and soon. Twenty-one years ago today, a full-halo CME struck Earth's magnetic field, sparking a severe G4-class geomagnetic storm. "Skies over Central Europe glowed bright red and violet," recalls Heiko Ulbricht, who photographed the display from Saxony, Germany, on Nov. 6, 2001:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 Heiko-Ulbricht-Polarlicht_1667690000_strip

    "The shock front hit the Earth's magnetic field around 2 a.m. CET--good timing for sky watchers in Europe," says Ulbricht. From there, auroras spread around the world, descending as far south as Florida, Texas, and California in the United States. The storm persisted for more than 24 hours.

    The CME left the sun two days earlier, propelled by an X1-class solar flare from sunspot AR9684. SOHO coronagraph images of the CME were quickly overwhelmed by a "snowstorm" of energetic particles accelerated by shock waves in the approaching storm cloud

    The kind of explosion that produced this storm is, interestingly, not rare. Young Solar Cycle 25 has already produced 8 similar X-flares since 2021. None of the related CMEs delivered a direct hit, however.

    "If you look at the sun today, it could definitely produce a spectacle of this kind again," says Ulbricht. Browse the aurora gallery from 21 years ago to see what might be coming.



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    Post  Carol Sat Dec 10, 2022 9:53 am

    THIS EXPLOSION MIGHT HIT EARTH: Yesterday, Dec. 9th, a magnetic filament in the sun's southern hemisphere erupted, possibly hurling a fraction of itself into space: movie. SOHO coronagraph movies are inconclusive. A faint CME might have left the blast site. If so, it could jolt Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 12th. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

    THIS EXPLOSION DEFINITELY WON'T: The sun just shot an interestingly narrow stream of plasma into space. SOHO coronagraphs watched it jet away from the southwestern limb of the sun on Dec. 9th:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 Jet_crop_strip_opt

    This was no ordinary CME. The jet was less than 50 thousand km wide at its base, but it stretched more than 15 million km into space. Coherent blob-like structures can be seen traveling down the stream as the eruption progresses.

    The underlying physics of this event is a bit of a mystery. It might be a strangely skinny helmet streamer. Helmet streamers are magnetic arches rooted in the sun, which are sculpted and stretched by the solar wind. They're normally 10 to 100 times wider than this one, though.

    One thing is certain: It won't hit Earth. Maybe next time.


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    Post  Carol Tue Dec 20, 2022 6:20 am

    Mysterious shock wave CRACKS Earth's magnetosphere that protects our planet from dangerous space radiation

    A mysterious shock wave hit Earth last night and cracked the region that protects us from radiation. While scientists do not know its origin, they believe it came from a solar flare from the sun.

    > While the shock wave's origin is unknown, scientists believe it came from a crackling sunspot that released eight solar flares on December 14
    > The crack can stay open for hours and allow solar winds to flow through
    > The ejection may have been released from sunspot AR3165, which launched at least eight solar flares into space on December 14 that caused blackouts over the Atlantic Ocean, according to Space Weather.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-11555663/Mysterious-shock-wave-CRACKS-Earths-magnetosphere.html
    ==

    CHANCE OF MINOR STORMS THIS WEEK: NOAA forecasters say there is a chance of minor G1-class geomagnetic storms on Dec. 21st when a side-by-side pair of solar wind streams are expected to graze Earth's magnetic field. The gaseous material is flowing from a double hole in the sun's atmosphere.

    UNIQUE PHOTO OF A SOLAR PROMINENCE: This may be the only photo of its kind. On Dec. 13th, Jamie Shepherd of Lochearnhead, Scotland, photographed a solar prominence--without a solar telescope, without a solar eclipse, and without a coronagraph. All it took was the edge of a mountain:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 Scottishprom_strip

    "Around the winter solstice, if I step outside my front door, I can see the sun rising from behind a large rocky outcrop, the lower summit of Stùc a' Chròin," explains Shepherd. "It's just the right shape and distance to cover the sun, like my own solar eclipse, every Christmas."

    "Other than a sunrise though, can any eclipse phenomena be seen? It's not easy to catch a clear sky at that time of day in December, but this year I was lucky. I took a burst of pictures with a hand-held telephoto just as the sun appeared. Amazingly, a pink prominence could be made out."

    "Just to be sure," continues Shepherd, "I stacked the pictures in a sequence to show the prominence tracking to the right as the sun rose. Confirmation came from an Australian National Solar Observatory image just 10 minutes prior. I have added it below in the stack."
    ==




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    Post  Carol Wed Dec 21, 2022 9:34 am

    Another crack has opened in earth’s magnetic field. G1 solar storm incoming

    According to an aurora alert from spaceweather.com, a minor crack is opening in earths magnetic field. This can be seen in the sharp drop in the red line in the first segment of the graph below

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 PZOFEpHl
    https://imgur.com/a/iBiPM1j

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind

    There is a G1 geomagnetic storm expected in the early hours of 12/21. What happens if this arrives when our magnetic field is breached?

    [imgur] https://imgur.com/a/ku2rVfQ[/imgur]

    https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/aurora-forecast.html

    There is a G1 geomagnetic storm expected in the early hours of 12/21. What happens if this arrives when our magnetic field is breached?

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 YjNqixIl

    https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/aurora-forecast.html

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 VAYoX24l

    Around 48 hours ago, a similar crack opened in the earths magnetic field:

    A shock wave in the solar wind hit Earth's magnetic field during the late hours of Dec. 18th. The impact opened a crack in our planet's magnetosphere, setting the stage for possible G1-class geomagnetic storms on Dec. 19th. (Source: spaceweather.com)

    There is also a G1 geomagnetic storm forecasted:

    NOAA forecasters say there is a chance of minor G1-class geomagnetic storms on Dec. 21st when a side-by-side pair of solar wind streams are expected to graze Earth's magnetic field. The gaseous material is flowing from a double hole in the sun's atmosphere (https://spaceweather.com/)

    A record 20+ M-class flares fired off from the sun 12/14-18

    A shock wave barreled into Earth's magnetic field and cracked its magnetosphere, which protects our planet from space radiation
    While the shock wave's origin is unknown, scientists believe it came from a crackling sunspot that released eight solar flares on December 14
    The crack can stay open for hours and allow solar winds to flow through

    Mysterious shock wave CRACKS Earth's magnetosphere that protects our planet from dangerous space radiation
    https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/12/19/21/65748507-11555663-image-m-84_1671485945624.jpg

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-11555663/Mysterious-shock-wave-CRACKS-Earths-magnetosphere.html
    ==

    Looks like the opening may be closing for now - BsubZ (red line in first section) back up from below -10. Will be interesting to watch the magnetic field as the solar wind arrives
    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind

    Planetary K index now at Kp = 3

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index
    Up to Kp = 5 expected later today



    ==

    -50 wind chill factor Billings, MT
    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 MjvloZ1l
    https://i.imgur.com/MjvloZ1l.jpg
    ==

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 NrSX6KZl
    4.3 earthquake today in Ferndale, CA after the 6.4 overnight
    ==

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 7sFE7oFl


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mlVhswYead4&feature=emb_logo
    Magnetic Pole Shift | The Most Important Disaster
    ==


    https://youtu.be/OwKaI8u464M
    Black Hole Blasts Earth's Magnetic Field


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    Post  Carol Wed Jan 04, 2023 11:31 am

    CME IMPACT JOLTS EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD: As predicted, a coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field on Jan. 4th (0254 UT). The impact jolted magnetometers around the world with the Canberra station in Australia registering a sudden impulse of 38 nT. It also ignited a G1-class geomagnetic storm. Pilot Matt Melnyk photographed the light show from 30,000 ft above Alberta, Canada:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 Redeye_strip
    https://spaceweather.com/images2023/04jan23/redeye_strip.jpg

    "We witnessed an amazing aurora display from the flight deck of a red-eye flight from Edmonton to Toronto!" says Melnyk. "The show lasted the entire flight."

    The storm has subsided now, but it could re-kindle itself as Earth passes through the CME's magnetized wake. Also, a solar wind stream is expected to arrive on Jan. 5th, which could extend storm conditions for the next 24 hours.


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    Post  Carol Mon Jan 09, 2023 3:31 pm

    INCREASING CHANCE OF FLARES: One X-class solar flare already happened today (see below) and more could follow. The sun now has two large, unstable sunspots capable of producing very strong explosions: AR3182 and AR3184. Both are turning to face Earth, increasing the odds of geoeffective flares this week. X-flare alerts: SMS Text.

    X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected an X1.9-class solar flare (Jan. 9th @ 1850 UT). The source is hyperactive sunspot AR3184, now emerging over the sun's southeastern limb. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the flare's extreme ultraviolet flash:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 X2_red_4096_strip

    Radiation from the flare ioniozed the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a shortwave radio blackout centered on the Pacific side of South America: blackout map. Mariners, aviators and ham radio operators may have noticed fadeouts and other unusual propagation effects at frequencies below ~25 MHz.

    This was an impulsive solar flare--intense but probably too brief to lift a coronal mass ejection (CME) out of the sun's atmosphere. It is too soon, however, to rule out the possibility of debris heading our way. Pending data from SOHO coronagraphs will reveal any CMEs in the hours ahead.

    Meanwhile, it is interesting to zoom out and see what the whole sun did around the time of the X-flare. There were 5 nearly simultaneous eruptions

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 Fivesites_lab_arrow

    Going off like popcorn, these five sites erupted in a time window shorter than 90 minutes despite some of them being separated by as much as a million kilometers. Coincidence? Maybe not. Researchers discovered long ago that magnetic instabilities can ignite rapidfire explosions across the entire face of the sun. This appears to be such a case.

    The collective effect of these disturbances may yet send a CME our way.


    _________________
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    Post  Carol Mon Jan 09, 2023 3:35 pm

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 Wolfmoon1_strip

    "I forgot my headlamp at home," he says. "No problem. The Wolf Moon provided all the illumination we needed. Watching the huskies' moon shadows race across the snow was a magical experience."


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    Post  Carol Sat Jan 21, 2023 8:20 am

    CHANCE OF FLARES: NOAA forecasters say there is a 60% chance of M-class solar flares and a 15% chance of X-flares today. The most likely source is giant sunspot AR3190, which is directly facing Earth. Solar flare alerts: Solar wind speed: 497.0 km/sec

    GIANT SUNSPOT: There's a big dark spot in the middle of the sun. David J Kriegler saw it last night at sunset over Gulf Shores, Alabama:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 Sunset_strip

    This is AR3190, one of the largest sunspots of surging Solar Cycle 25. "It's almost five times the diameter of Earth, and could be seen through the thick humid atmosphere over the Gulf of Mexico," says Kriegler.

    The scale of AR3190 makes it an easy target for amateur astronomers. You don't even need a solar telescope. Eclipse glasses work, too. You might have some old ones left over from 2017; if not, here's where you can get a new pair.

    Caution: Sunset photos like Kriegler's are possible, but be careful. Even when the sun is dimmed by low clouds or haze, looking directly through the camera can damage your eyes. Always use the LCD screen for viewfinding.


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    Post  Carol Sat Feb 11, 2023 2:18 pm

    A DANGEROUS SUNSPOT: Sunspot AR3217 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Indeed, it just unleashed one (see below). The sunspot is turning toward Earth so any flares this weekend are likely to be geoeffective. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text.

    SOLAR FLARE AND RADIO BLACKOUT: Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected an X1.1-class solar flare from sunspot AR3217 (Feb. 11th @ 1548 UTC). Extreme UV radiation ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a strong shortwave radio blackout over South America:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 X1_red_anim_strip

    Ham radio operators, aviators, and mariners may have noticed unusual propagation effects at frequencies below 30 MHz for as much as an hour after the flare.

    This was an impulsive flare, intense and fast. It may not have lasted long enough to lift a CME out of the sun's atmosphere. Confirmation awaits fresh data from SOHO coronagraphs.


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    Post  Carol Fri Mar 03, 2023 6:48 am

    GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on March 4th and 5th in response to an incoming CME. Hurled into space by the M8.6-class flare of Feb. 28th, the CME is not heading directly for Earth. Instead it will deliver only a glancing blow when it arrives. Solar wind speed: 587.6 km/sec

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 Sunspotcounts_strip

    SOLAR CYCLE UPDATE: February was another strong month for Solar Cycle 25. According to NOAA, the average sunspot number was among the highest of the past 10 years:

    Originally, forecasters thought Solar Cycle 25 would be about the same as Solar Cycle 24, one of the weakest solar cycles in a century. February's sunspot numbers are the latest sign that Solar Cycle 25 will exceed predictions. In fact, Solar Cycle 25 has outperformed the official forecast for more than 24 months in a row.

    Solar Maximum is not expected until 2024 or 2025, so the solar cycle has plenty of time to strengthen even more, bringing additional X-flares, geomagnetic storms and auroras.

    A HUGE AURORA, SWIRLING LIKE CRAZY: This was not in the forecast. During the early hours of March 3rd, a crack opened in Earth's magnetic field. Solar wind poured through the gap, sparking a light show over Kemi, Finland:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 Crazy_strip

    "I was spending the night in a cabin in the forest," says photographer Giorgio Baldi. "I went outside at 2 a.m. and saw this huge aurora swirling like crazy!"

    This was an isolated episode--the kind of auroral outburst that will become more common as we move deeper into March. Researchers call it the "Russell-McPherron effect." During weeks around equinoxes, cracks form in Earth's magnetic field. Even weak streams of solar wind can penetrate to spark a good display.


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    Post  Carol Tue Mar 07, 2023 9:51 am

    THE SOLAR WIND IS BLOWING FAST: Earth has entered a stream of solar wind blowing faster than 600 km/s (1.3 million mph). This could cause geomagnetic unrest or even a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm around the poles today. Arctic sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

    SUNSPOT MEITOSIS: Sunspot AR3245 is splitting in two. This 24-hour movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the sunspot's primary core dividing like a eukaryotic cell as it turns toward Earth:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 Splitup

    The bright, linear gap between the sunspot's two halves is known as a "light bridge." It measures 20,000 km from end to end.

    The nature of light bridges is not fully understood. They often herald the break-up of a sunspot, with jets of plasma shooting up from the chasm as the sunspot decays. Some research suggests that magnetic fields at the base of a light bridge are busy cross-crossing and reconnecting--the same explosive process that sparks solar flares.

    Does this mean sunspot AR3245 will explode--or quietly fall apart? No one can say.


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    Post  Carol Sun Mar 12, 2023 1:53 pm

    POSSIBLE GLANCING-BLOW CME TODAY: NOAA forecasters say that a CME might deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field today, March 12th. It left the sun on March 8th, taking at least 4 days to cross the sun-Earth divide. This makes it a slow-mover. Even slow, off-target CMEs, however, can spark bright auroras around the Arctic Circle; sky watchers at high latitudes should be alert for Northern Lights.

    DARK PLASMA PROMINENCE ERUPTION (UPDATED): Yesterday, a huge tube of magnetism filled with dark plasma erupted from the southwestern limb of the sun. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the prominence hurling itself into space:

    "Dark plasma" is not a special kind of plasma; it's just cooler and less luminous than the background sun. It is also denser than gas in the surrounding solar atmosphere.

    This relatively dark material formed the core of a CME, which was seen flying away from the sun by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). NOAA analysts have modeled the CME and determined that it could graze Earth's magnetic field on March 15th, producing a G1-class geomagnetic storm.


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    Post  Carol Wed Mar 22, 2023 8:22 pm

    GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: NOAA forecasters say that G2-class (Moderate) geomagnetic storms are possible on March 24th when solar wind flowing from a large hole in the sun's atmosphere is expected to reach Earth. During such storms, auroras have been seen in the USA as far south as, e.g., New York and Idaho. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

    A SOLAR RADIO BURST AT NIGHT: Something rare and strange happened last month. On Feb. 23rd, growing sunspot AR3234 produced an M-class solar flare. It was nearly midnight in Florida when the explosion occurred, so you'd expect no one there to notice. On the contrary, in the community of High Springs, FL, amateur radio astronomer Dave Typinski recorded a strong shortwave radio burst.

    "You CAN see the sun at midnight in Florida... sometimes," says Typinski. This is what his instruments recorded while the flare was underway:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 Dynspec_strip

    A double wave of static washed over Florida, filling the radio spectrum with noise at all frequencies below 25 MHz. "The Sun was 69° below the horizon when this happened," he marvels.

    How is this possible? The entire body of our planet was blocking the event from Typinski's antenna. It's called "antipodal focusing." First postulated by Marconi more than 100 years ago, antipodal focusing is a mode of radio propagation in which a signal starts out on one side of the planet, gets trapped between Earth's surface and the ionosphere, and travels to the opposite hemisphere. Waves converging at the antipode can create a surprisingly strong signal.



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    Post  Carol Sun Mar 26, 2023 12:33 pm

    MINOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: NOAA forecasters say that minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are likely on March 26th as Earth passes through a stream of high-speed solar wind. The gaseous material is flowing from a large hole in the sun's atmosphere. Arctic sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

    SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM: On March 23-24, auroras spread into the United States as far south as New Mexico (+32.8N) during a severe (category G4) geomagnetic storm--the most intense in nearly 6 years. The cause of the storm is still unclear; it may have been the ripple effect of a near-miss CME on March 23rd. Solar wind speed: 577.0 km/sec

    "For about 30 minutes we watched as auroras danced and simmered in the sky above Yellowstone National Park," says Michael Underwood, who photographed the light show from the Mammoth Hot Springs at latitude +45 degrees:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 Mammoth_strip

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 Steve_in_washington_strip

    This remarkable and surprising storm began on March 23rd when magnetic fields in the space around Earth suddenly shifted. In the jargon of space weather forecasting "BsubZ tipped south." South-pointing magnetic fields can open a crack in Earth's magnetosphere and, indeed, that's what happened. Earth's "shields were down" for almost 24 hours, allowing solar wind to penetrate and the storm to build to category G4.

    These developments may have been caused the close passage of an unexpected CME. The storm cloud could have left the sun on March 20-21 when SOHO coronagraph data were unusually sparse. We didn't know it was coming. For aurora watchers, it was a welcome surprise.


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    Post  Carol Tue Mar 28, 2023 8:23 am

    SOLAR WIND, INCOMING: A minor stream of solar wind is heading for Earth. ETA: April 1st. The gaseous material is flowing from a relatively small hole in the sun's atmosphere, now facing our planet. Arctic auroras are likely when the solar wind arrives. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

    RED AURORAS OVER FLORIDA (AND ELSEWHERE): This hasn't happened in nearly 20 years. On March 24th, auroras descended all the way to Florida. Bill Williams photographed their red glow from the Chiefland Astro Village:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 Florida_strip

    What in the world? Normally, we have a very dark horizon looking out over the Suwannee River Basin and Gulf of Mexico," says Williams. "But my 26-minute exposure taken to capture the Winter Milky Way showed an unusual red glow."

    "The mystery was solved the next day as Spaceweather.com described a severe geomagnetic storm well-seen in the U.S. As far as I know, at 29.4 degrees north latitude, we are the farthest south this aurora has been witnessed, and is the first I have seen here in Florida since 2003 and 1989!"

    Most auroras are green, yet when auroras spread to low latitudes, the sightings are almost always red. There's a simple reason. Ordinary green auroras come from oxygen atoms about 150 km above Earth's surface. Red auroras are also caused by oxygen, but much higher up, between 150 km and 500 km.

    Note: Unrelated to auroras, another red glow called "airglow" can also be seen sometimes at low latitudes. Indeed, on any other night, airglow would be a leading explanation for what Williams photographed. But on March 24, 2023, during an extreme geomagnetic storm, with other red auroras being seen only a few degrees away, auroras are the most likely explanation.


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    Post  Carol Thu Mar 30, 2023 9:54 am

    Two giant ‘holes’ appear on sun and could send 1.8 million-mph solar winds toward Earth According to James Gilliland the last CME was a 4 out of a 5 - a Carrington Event - Schumann resonance is off the charts. These types of solar conditions tend to affect people's behavior and health where they feel more irritable and tired.

    The Carrington Event was the most intense geomagnetic storm in recorded history, peaking from 1 to 2 September 1859 during solar cycle 10. It created strong auroral displays that were reported globally[1] and caused sparking and even fires in multiple telegraph stations. The geomagnetic storm was most likely the result of a coronal mass ejection (CME) from the Sun colliding with Earth's magnetosphere.[2]

    The geomagnetic storm was associated with a very bright solar flare on 1 September 1859. It was observed and recorded independently by British astronomers Richard Christopher Carrington and Richard Hodgson—the first records of a solar flare.

    A geomagnetic storm of this magnitude occurring today would cause widespread electrical disruptions, blackouts, and damage due to extended outages of the electrical power grid.

    ==

    SOLAR WIND, INCOMING (UPDATED): A minor stream of solar wind is heading for Earth. ETA: April 1st. The gaseous material is flowing from a relatively small hole in the sun's atmosphere, now facing our planet. Arctic auroras are likely when the solar wind arrives. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

    ANOTHER X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: This is becoming routine. The sun just produced another X-class solar flare, the 7th of 2023. The X1.2-category explosion came from sunspot AR3256 near the sun's southwestern limb:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 X1p2_teal_anim_crop2
    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 Blackoutmap_strip2

    Radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a strong shortwave radio blackout over southeast Asia, Australia and New Zealand. Ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal and other propagation effects below 30 MHz for as much as an hour after the peak of the flare (March 29th @ 0233 UT).

    A faint CME left the sun after the explosion. NOAA analysts have determined that it will miss Earth--no impact.

    The real significance of this flare may be the number "7." That's the total number of X-flares in all of 2022. With today's flare, the sun has already matched that total in 2023--and it's only March.

    This is yet another sign that Solar Cycle 25 is rapidly intensifying. If the trend continues, we could have nearly 30 X-flares by the end of 2023, an order-of-magnitude greater activity than only two years ago. Official forecasts are calling for Solar Maximum to arrive in 2024 or 2025. If so, there is plenty of time for the solar cycle to intensify even more; X-flares could become routine, indeed.

    Cosmic Rays Solar Cycle 25 is intensifying, and this is reflected in the number of cosmic rays entering Earth's atmosphere. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth are slowly declining--a result of the yin-yang relationship between the solar cycle and cosmic rays.


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    Post  Carol Thu Mar 30, 2023 10:01 am


    Two giant ‘holes’ appear on sun and could send 1.8 million-mph solar winds toward Earth

    For the second time in a week, a giant hole has appeared on the surface of the sun and could produce solar winds reaching speeds over a million miles per hour.

    This type of opening is called a coronal hole and it is enormous, measuring 20 times the size of Earth, Sky News reported.

    Experts say there could be more such events involving a giant hole on the surface of the sun
    According to experts, we are currently experiencing a phase of intensified solar activity. This could lead to an increase in events such as flares, coronal mass ejections, and geomagnetic storms.

    NASA‘s Solar Dynamics Observatory has identified a coronal hole. It may release solar winds moving at an astonishing speed of 1.8 million miles per hour. These winds are anticipated to hit our planet by Thursday.

    The European Space Agency’s Solar Orbiter spacecraft has already detected these winds. And they are moving at a pace of 700 kilometers per second as of Wednesday.

    Winds may have an impact on the Earth’s magnetic field, as well as satellites and technology, Indy100 reported.

    Coronal holes are not necessarily a sign of trouble as they are quite common in the sun’s corona
    In fact, NASA even shared an image last year of three coronal holes that made it appear as if the sun was smiling. These features are a regular occurrence in the sun’s outer atmosphere.

    Daniel Verscharen, an associate professor of space and climate physics at University College London, has confirmed their normality.

    “This one is special because it is near the sun’s equator,” he told Sky News. “Since the sun rotates, an equatorial coronal hole can point towards the Earth at some point.”

    The recent rise in solar activity, as observed in the past week, is an indication of a more active sun. These periods of heightened solar activity, known as solar maximums, occur approximately every 11 years.

    They result in an increase in the number of coronal holes and more remarkable phenomena such as coronal mass ejections. Professor Verscharen compared this phenomenon to the sun “waking up.”

    https://insiderpaper.com/two-giant-holes-appear-on-sun/


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    Post  Carol Sat Apr 22, 2023 8:28 am

    Spaceweater.com

    EARTH-DIRECTED EXPLOSION ON THE SUN: Earth is definitely in the strike zone. Yesterday (April 21st), a large magnetic filament snaking across the sun's southern hemisphere exploded, hurling a cloud of debris in our direction. This movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows what happened:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 Filament_anim_purple_strip

    Soon after the eruption, the US Air Force reported strong Type II and Type IV solar radio bursts. These are natural shortwave emissions produced by shock waves preceding the CME as it passes through the sun's atmosphere. Drift rates in the Type II burst suggested a CME velocity of about 580 km/s (1.3 million mph).

    Images from SOHO coronagraphs have since confirmed the CME. It is a 'halo CME' heading straight for Earth:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 Halo_cme_crop_opt

    A preliminary NASA model of the CME shows it reaching Earth around 00:00 UT on April 24th. A refined forecast will become available this weekend when NOAA forecasters finish analyzing the CME.
    ==

    WHAT A SOLAR ECLIPSE SOUNDS LIKE: A solar eclipse happens when the Moon glides in front of the sun. It's a silent process; there is no sound in space. Yet when Joerg Schoppmeyer observed Thursday's total eclipse over Exmouth, Australia, he heard something. Turn up the volume and click play:




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    Post  Carol Mon Apr 24, 2023 8:04 am

    https://spaceweather.com/

    SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM:
    Arriving earlier than expected, a CME hit Earth's magnetic field on April 23rd at 1737 UT, sparking a severe G4-class geomagnetic storm. Auroras spread across Europe with sightings as far south as France. Bright red auroras were also reported in China.

    The storm is still going on and it is producing visible auroras across North America. Mid-latitude sightings include North Carolina, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, California and Oklahoma. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

    "My pulse is still racing!" says Heiko Ulbricht, who watched the aurora show from Saxony, Germany. "There were bright green spots dancing across the sky all the way up to the zenith." This is what he saw:


    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 Saxony_strip


    "This was a display not to be forgotten," he says. Similar green blobs were photographed in Poland and France. These are unusual structures, which we will discuss further after the storm is over.

    The auroras in Europe were so bright, they could be seen even from brightly-lit urban areas. Thomas Hunger sends this report from Berlin, Germany: "I run Northern Lights tours in Tromsø, Norway, but would have never dreamt of seeing auroras from my home town of Berlin. I stepped on the balcony and enjoyed a sight that in a city of 4 million inhabitants might just have been a once-in-a-lifetime experience."

    As the storm moved from Europe to the Americas, Todd Bush knew it was coming and set up his camera in the Blue Ridge Mountains of North Carolina. This was his first shot:


    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 Nc_strip


    "I uploaded this snapshot, now I am going back for more as the auroras are looking better and better," he says. "Wowzah!"

    More images are pouring in from all around the USA. We estimate that auroras will have been sighted in more than 30 states before the night is over.
    ==

    High Kp values continue
    Between 6.5 and 8




    https://observatornews.ro/eveniment/aurora-boreala-fenomen-specific-zonelor-nordice-a-putut-fi-vazuta-si-din-romania-cum-a-fost-posibil-520760.html
    Aurora Borealis was seen from Romania - east Europe. Is the first time that is possible this phenomenon. Amazin nature...But I am afraid of some earthquakes, too, probably in Vrancea.

    https://twitter.com/_/status/1650406831519596545

    7.1 quake New Zealand

    Back to back quakes in the 5.0 range on the Indonesian fault that caused the great 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.
    Watching if this unzips



    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 FudsQ7baAAAmVOH?format=jpg&name=medium


    Can’t believe this happened IN CALIFORNIA!!!! What a night 4/23/23

    UPDATED) TONIGHT'S AURORA FORECAST:
    Based on current data, we've moved our possible Northern Lights viewing farther south. A moderate, strong, or severe geomagnetic storm is possible.
    Aurora viewing is likely in the United States tonight as Earth is impacted by a strong solar…


    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 FuaZu3MWwAAMDsR?format=jpg&name=medium


    3-DAY GEOMAGNETIC FORECAST
    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/3-day-geomagnetic-forecast

    Proton flux dropping
    Magnetic field returning to normal




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    Post  Carol Fri May 05, 2023 9:40 am

    METEORS FROM HALLEY'S COMET: Earth is entering a stream of debris from Halley's Comet, source of the annual eta Aquariid meteor shower. Peak rates of 10 to 30 meteors per hour are expected on the night of May 6-7. Glare from a nearly full Moon will reduce visibility, but this could be offset by an extra dose of meteoroids nudged toward Earth by the gravity of Jupiter. Full Story.

    SOLAR FLARE AND CME (UPDATED): Reversed-polarity sunspot AR3296 (described below) exploded on May 4th (0844 UT), producing an M3.9-class solar flare. The extreme ultraviolet flash lasted for nearly 3 hours:



    The explosion also hurled a CME into space. In fact, multiple overlapping CMEs flew into space shortly after the explosion. Take a look. Each CME is debris from a different blast--only one came from AR3296. But which one?

    NOAA analysts have taken a stab at disentangling the storm clouds. They believe that a halo CME originally thought to be Earth-directed is actually a farside event; it could be heading directly away from us. Of greater interest is a CME at the 9 o'clock position, which appears to be debris from the M3.9-flare. This CME might pass close to Earth on May 7th, with either a near miss or a glancing blow.

    In summary, there is much uncertainty about this event. CME impacts this weekend could range from none at all -- to a glancing blow (most likely) -- to a direct hit. Just in case, high-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on Sunday. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

    REVERSED-POLARITY SUNSPOT: New sunspot AR3296 is breaking the law: Hale’s Law. The sunspot's magnetic field is reversed compared to other nearby sunspots in the sun's northern hemisphere. This magnetogram from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) shows the situation:

    According to Hale's Law, Solar Cycle 25 sunspots in the sun’s northern hemisphere should have a -/+ polarity (negative on the left, positive on the right). AR3296 is reversed; its polarity is +/-.

    Studies show that about 3% of all sunspots violate Hale’s Law. In most ways, reversed polarity sunspots are totally normal. They have about the same lifespan and size as ordinary sunspots. In one important way, however, they are different. According to a 1982 survey by Frances Tang of the Big Bear Solar Observatory, reversed polarity sunspots are more than twice as likely to develop complex magnetic fields, in which + and – are mixed together. Reversed polarity sunspots are therefore more likely to explode.
    ==

    Something strange is going on with the Weather -- Gravity waves? Undulating storms? 5/05/2023
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvmH2qL6fa

    dutchsinse: IDK what to tell you. NBC local meteorologist here in St. Louis Missouri confirmed on morning news this morning (May 5, 2023) that this is not a glitch or RADAR translation issue. That the storms really moved this way overnight from May 4th into sunrise on May 5th.

    The 'undulation' of all the storms in North America ceases around Sunrise East Coast time (530am ET) Multiple views in the video come from:

    https://www.ksdk.com/radar
    and
    https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=continental-conus-comp_radar-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

    Since it is not a glitch (per the meteorologist on television), and it is not happening on other continents, I'm vexxed about all of this.

    I have no prior examples of this to go on, and have never seen anything like this before.

    Getting confirmation that this is not a glitch is what is prompting me to make this video now.

    I don't know what (if anything) to watch out for after this. But since it falls under "RADAR anomalies" this is right up my alley when it comes to documenting and looking for anything to happen afterwards.

    Best case scenario its some kind of oddity that has no effect afterwards. Worst case scenario the planet is wobbling out of the ordinary magnetically on one side of the planet (the USA side currently).

    The antipode is worth mentioning.. which I show in this video ... it can't be chance that the antipode (opposite side of the planet) is the tip of the antarctic plate (starfort shape) which I've shown in several videos previously.


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    Post  Carol Mon May 22, 2023 10:47 am

    CHANCE OF FLARES TODAY: Unstable sunspot AR3311 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong solar flares. NOAA forecasters say there is a 75% chance of M-class flares and a 30% chance of X-flares on May 22nd. Solar wind speed: 551.2 km/sec

    SUPERNOVA IN THE PINWHEEL GALAXY (UPDATED): Astronomers are scrambling to photograph a new supernova in the Pinwheel Galaxy (M101). "This is best supernova in a decade," says Eliot Herman of Tucson, Arizona. "It has tripled in brightness in only 24 hours."


    At this rate, it will soon rival or outshine the spiral galaxy's core.

    Astronomer Yvette Cendes of Harvard's Center for Astrophysics says the supernova should continue to brighten for another day or so. "We think it will peak around magnitude +10, although it is hard to be certain."

    Discovered by amateur astronomer Koichi Itagaki on May 19th, this is a Type II supernova caused by the core collapse of a massive star. A shock wave has broken out of the dying star, creating a fireball as it plows into circumstellar material. That's what we are seeing now.


    The Pinwheel Galaxy is an popular target for amateur astronomers, easy to find in the constellation Ursa Major (finder chart). Many observers know how it looks and will immediately notice the "extra star" in one of its spiral arms.

    "If amateur astronomers have any data from the last few days, particularly right before discovery, it might prove useful for science and end up in some scientific papers!" says Cendes. "Sending the data to the AAVSO is probably the best way to contribute."


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    Post  Carol Thu Jun 01, 2023 10:18 am

    MINOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: NOAA forecasters say that minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on June 2nd when a stream of solar wind is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. The gaseous material is flowing from a pair of holes in the sun's atmosphere. Aurora alerts: SMS Text

    SOLAR FLARE AND RADIO BLACKOUT: A new sunspot is emerging over the sun's SE limb. It announced itself on May 31st with a long-duration M4-class solar flare:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 Slowflare_strip_opt

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 9 Blackoutmap_strip

    A pulse of extreme ultraviolet radiation ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a shortwave radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean almost perfectly centered over Hawaii. Mariners and ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal below 30 MHz for as much as an hour after 2252 UT.

    Designated AR3323, the sunspot is now turning toward Earth, and it appears to be growing more complex. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of more M-flares on June 1st.


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    Post  Carol Wed Jun 07, 2023 6:09 pm

    Was told it was likely to happen before the solstice. Maybe this week.

    Dan Bongino, in as Carefully Worded Plea to His Viewers, Said That Everyone Must Be Prepared Now!
    What we’ve been feeling, seeing, our nightmares could happen. Have food, water, and something to protect yourself and your family, and a plan.
    [/b]

    Could be just another practice run.

    Might be a good time to make sure all the vehicles are gassed up. Lots of good water stored, rice, beans, oatmeal, ramen, pasta, sprout seeds, peanut butter, camper stove, led string lights/solar lights, candles, coffee, tea, cash, extra air plane fuel for motors (chain saw, lawn mowers, etc.), bug out bags...?
    ==

    INCREASING SOLAR ACTIVITY: Sunspot AR3327 has developed an unstable 'delta-class' magnetic field that poses a threat for strong solar flares. This morning (June 7th @ 1146 UT) it produced an M4.5-class explosion (movie) and a radio blackout over Africa (map). More flares are in the offing as the sunspot turns toward Earth. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text

    HOW BIG WAS CARRINGTON'S SUNSPOT? If you want to have a bit of fun with ChatGPT, ask it the following question: "How big was Carrington's sunspot?"

    ChatGPT's response: "The exact size of Carrington's sunspot is not known with certainty since direct measurements of sunspot sizes were not possible during that time." (Other sample responses: #1, #2, #3.)

    Carrington must be turning in his grave. The astronomer made accurate measurements and beautiful drawings of the sunspot, shown here in a figure from Carrington's report in the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society:

    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/06jun23/og_drawing_crop2_strip.jpg
    Carrington was widely known in 19th-century London for his work with sunspots. Supported by his father's beer-brewing business, he spent almost every sunny day in his well-appointed private observatory projecting an 11-inch image of the sun onto a screen and drawing what he saw. On Sept. 1st, 1859, two kidney-shaped beads of blinding white light appeared just above a giant sunspot he had numbered "520." He had never seen anything like it.

    "Being somewhat flurried by the surprise," Carrington later wrote, "I hastily ran to call someone to witness the exhibition with me. On returning within 60 seconds, I was mortified to find that it was already much changed and enfeebled." They watched the lights fade away.

    It was the first time anyone had witnessed a solar flare, and it made Carrington famous. (Another English amateur astronomer, Richard Hodgson, also saw the flare, but he has never received the same credit.)

    Less than two days later a CME hit Earth. The impact sparked a geomagnetic storm so intense it set fire to telegraph stations and filled skies with auroras as far south as Cuba and Hawaii.

    The "Carrington Event" has since become a touchstone of space weather in pop culture. Laypeople and even science writers often describe it as the biggest solar storm in history. In fact, recent historical studies suggest that great storms occur once every 40 to 60 years on average. The Carrington Event was rare but not unique.

    With new Solar Cycle 25 now intensifying, people are naturally curious how modern sunspots stack up against Carrington's. "How big was Carrington's sunspot?" is suddenly a FAQ--which brings us back to ChatGPT. The large language model learns from text it finds on the internet. Apparently, not enough text has been written, so this is for AI:

    On Sept. 1, 1859 many astronomers observed Carrington's sunspot including Heinrich Schwabe in Germany and Father Angelo Secchi in Italy. Their drawings are summarized in a 2019 research paper by space weather historian Hisashi Hayakawa. The body of Carrington's sunspot was about 9% as wide as the solar disk (14.3% if we include a retinue of smaller surrounding spots). The surface area of the sunspot was ~2300 millionths of the solar disk.

    That's huge, but no record setter. "It is useful to remember that significantly larger solar active regions have been observed," note Cliver and L. Svalgaard in a 2004 Solar Physics review paper. "Regions with spot areas ~5000 millionths appeared during cycle 18."

    To illustrate the scale of Carrington's sunspot, we have pasted it onto an image of the sun taken by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory on June 6, 2023. There is actually a sunspot today nearly as wide as Carrington's: AR3323. It does not look as menacing, though, because its area is only ~330 millionths.

    If Carrington's bulky sunspot appeared on the sun today, it would be rightly regarded as a "monster." To find a sunspot of similar width and area, we have to turn back to early November 2003 when giant sunspot AR486 (~2200 millionths) unleashed the strongest solar flare of the modern era (X28). This image compares AR486 to Carrington's sunspot; they are almost exactly the same size.

    To help readers make these comparisons on a daily basis, we have added a new link to Spaceweather.com. It's right here. Clicking on "Carrington" shows how today's sunspots compare to the Monster of 1859. ChatGPT, we hope you're reading, too :)

    ==


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      Current date/time is Sun Jun 23, 2024 1:44 pm