SpaceWeather updates

GEOMAGNETIC UNREST: Earth's magnetic field is disturbed today as our planet moves into a high-speed stream of solar wind. A minor G1-class geomagnetic storm broke out during the early hours of Oct. 15th, then quickly subsided. Minor storm conditions could recur throughout the day. Solar wind
speed: 534.6 km/sec

A 'CANYON OF FIRE' JUST OPENED ON THE SUN: A plume of hot plasma more than 300,000 km long arced over the southwestern edge of the sun during the early hours of Oct. 15th. Beneath it, a 'canyon of fire' opened:



This weird explosion hurled a bright CME into space. First-look images from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) do not yet rule out a glancing blow to Earth early next week.

ALL QUIET: Solar activity is low. There are plenty of sunspots, but they all have stable magnetic fields that pose no immediate threat for strong explosions. NOAA forecasters say there is a 5% chance of M-class flares and no more than a 1% chance of X-flares on Nov. 6th.

21 YEARS AGO, A SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM: It could happen again--and soon. Twenty-one years ago today, a full-halo CME struck Earth's magnetic field, sparking a severe G4-class geomagnetic storm. "Skies over Central Europe glowed bright red and violet," recalls Heiko Ulbricht, who photographed the display from Saxony, Germany, on Nov. 6, 2001:



"The shock front hit the Earth's magnetic field around 2 a.m. CET--good timing for sky watchers in Europe," says Ulbricht. From there, auroras spread around the world, descending as far south as Florida, Texas, and California in the United States. The storm persisted for more than 24 hours.

The CME left the sun two days earlier, propelled by an X1-class solar flare from sunspot AR9684. SOHO coronagraph images of the CME were quickly overwhelmed by a "snowstorm" of energetic particles accelerated by shock waves in the approaching storm cloud

The kind of explosion that produced this storm is, interestingly, not rare. Young Solar Cycle 25 has already produced 8 similar X-flares since 2021. None of the related CMEs delivered a direct hit, however.

"If you look at the sun today, it could definitely produce a spectacle of this kind again," says Ulbricht. Browse the aurora gallery from 21 years ago to see what might be coming.

Was told it was likely to happen before the solstice. Maybe this week.

Dan Bongino, in as Carefully Worded Plea to His Viewers, Said That Everyone Must Be Prepared Now!
What we’ve been feeling, seeing, our nightmares could happen. Have food, water, and something to protect yourself and your family, and a plan.[/b]

Could be just another practice run.

Might be a good time to make sure all the vehicles are gassed up. Lots of good water stored, rice, beans, oatmeal, ramen, pasta, sprout seeds, peanut butter, camper stove, led string lights/solar lights, candles, coffee, tea, cash, extra air plane fuel for motors (chain saw, lawn mowers, etc.), bug out bags...?
==

INCREASING SOLAR ACTIVITY: Sunspot AR3327 has developed an unstable 'delta-class' magnetic field that poses a threat for strong solar flares. This morning (June 7th @ 1146 UT) it produced an M4.5-class explosion (movie) and a radio blackout over Africa (map). More flares are in the offing as the sunspot turns toward Earth. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text

HOW BIG WAS CARRINGTON'S SUNSPOT? If you want to have a bit of fun with ChatGPT, ask it the following question: "How big was Carrington's sunspot?"

ChatGPT's response: "The exact size of Carrington's sunspot is not known with certainty since direct measurements of sunspot sizes were not possible during that time." (Other sample responses: #1, #2, #3.)

Carrington must be turning in his grave. The astronomer made accurate measurements and beautiful drawings of the sunspot, shown here in a figure from Carrington's report in the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/06jun23/og_drawing_crop2_strip.jpg
Carrington was widely known in 19th-century London for his work with sunspots. Supported by his father's beer-brewing business, he spent almost every sunny day in his well-appointed private observatory projecting an 11-inch image of the sun onto a screen and drawing what he saw. On Sept. 1st, 1859, two kidney-shaped beads of blinding white light appeared just above a giant sunspot he had numbered "520." He had never seen anything like it.

"Being somewhat flurried by the surprise," Carrington later wrote, "I hastily ran to call someone to witness the exhibition with me. On returning within 60 seconds, I was mortified to find that it was already much changed and enfeebled." They watched the lights fade away.

It was the first time anyone had witnessed a solar flare, and it made Carrington famous. (Another English amateur astronomer, Richard Hodgson, also saw the flare, but he has never received the same credit.)

Less than two days later a CME hit Earth. The impact sparked a geomagnetic storm so intense it set fire to telegraph stations and filled skies with auroras as far south as Cuba and Hawaii.

The "Carrington Event" has since become a touchstone of space weather in pop culture. Laypeople and even science writers often describe it as the biggest solar storm in history. In fact, recent historical studies suggest that great storms occur once every 40 to 60 years on average. The Carrington Event was rare but not unique.

With new Solar Cycle 25 now intensifying, people are naturally curious how modern sunspots stack up against Carrington's. "How big was Carrington's sunspot?" is suddenly a FAQ--which brings us back to ChatGPT. The large language model learns from text it finds on the internet. Apparently, not enough text has been written, so this is for AI:

On Sept. 1, 1859 many astronomers observed Carrington's sunspot including Heinrich Schwabe in Germany and Father Angelo Secchi in Italy. Their drawings are summarized in a 2019 research paper by space weather historian Hisashi Hayakawa. The body of Carrington's sunspot was about 9% as wide as the solar disk (14.3% if we include a retinue of smaller surrounding spots). The surface area of the sunspot was ~2300 millionths of the solar disk.

That's huge, but no record setter. "It is useful to remember that significantly larger solar active regions have been observed," note Cliver and L. Svalgaard in a 2004 Solar Physics review paper. "Regions with spot areas ~5000 millionths appeared during cycle 18."

To illustrate the scale of Carrington's sunspot, we have pasted it onto an image of the sun taken by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory on June 6, 2023. There is actually a sunspot today nearly as wide as Carrington's: AR3323. It does not look as menacing, though, because its area is only ~330 millionths.

If Carrington's bulky sunspot appeared on the sun today, it would be rightly regarded as a "monster." To find a sunspot of similar width and area, we have to turn back to early November 2003 when giant sunspot AR486 (~2200 millionths) unleashed the strongest solar flare of the modern era (X28). This image compares AR486 to Carrington's sunspot; they are almost exactly the same size.

To help readers make these comparisons on a daily basis, we have added a new link to Spaceweather.com. It's right here. Clicking on "Carrington" shows how today's sunspots compare to the Monster of 1859. ChatGPT, we hope you're reading, too :)
==