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    SpaceWeather updates

    Carol
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    Post  Carol Thu Aug 05, 2021 8:06 pm

    HOLES IN THE SUN'S ATMOSPHERE: Two and possibly three holes in the sun's atmosphere are facing Earth today. Emerging streams of solar wind could reach our planet on Aug. 6-7, sparking minor geomagnetic storms and high latitude auroras. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

    THE PERSEID METEOR SHOWER IS UNDERWAY: Earth is entering a stream of debris from Comet 109P/Swift-Tuttle, source of the annual Perseid meteor shower. Although it won't peak until mid-next week, the shower is already active. Last night alone NASA cameras detected more than a dozen Perseid fireballs over the USA, and Petr Horálek photographed this beauty burning up over the Czech Republic:


    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 Perseid_strip

    "I captured our first Perseid of the year over Proseč on Aug. 3rd," reports Horálek. "Its rainbow hues were visible despite suburban light pollution."

    109P/Swift-Tuttle is a huge comet with a broad debris stream. It takes Earth weeks to cross it. The shower will probably be most intense on Aug. 11-12 (Wednesday night through Thursday morning) when our planet is closest to the stream's dusty core. Adjacent nights could be almost equally good.

    When should you look? Perseids may be seen any time after ~10 pm. Rates increase sharply after local midnight when the constellation Perseus is high in the sky (sky map). Observers in dark-sky sites can expect to count dozens of meteors during the moonless hours before sunrise.

    Pro tip: Get away from city lights! Light pollution kills meteors, as shown this composite image of last year's Perseid shower:


    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 Comparison_strip

    Tomáš Slovinský and Petr Horálek took the pictures last August from widely spaced locations in eastern Europe. "The left photograph comes from the darkest area of Slovakia – Dark Sky Park Poloniny with a Bortle 2 sky," explains Horálek. "The right image is from Seč lake in the Czech Republic, where you can find a less-dark Bortle 4 sky. The difference between these two classes of sky is about a thousand naked-eye stars and innumerable faint meteors."

    "To enjoy the 2021 Perseids," he urges, "find the darkest skies possible!"


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    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
    Carol
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    Post  Carol Thu Aug 12, 2021 7:53 pm

    PERSEID METEOR SHOWER: The staff of Spaceweather.com spent last night (Aug. 11-12) watching the Perseid meteor shower from Milky Way Meadows. Our conclusion: The shower hasn't peaked yet. Meteor rates were no more than 20 to 30 per hour, a fraction of the expected maximum. This means sky watchers should be alert for a delayed peak on Aug. 12-13. The hours before local sunrise on Friday may be best, after all. More: observing tips, sky map.

    "The night of Aug. 11-12 showed only a few dim meteors that traced back to Perseus," reports John Ashley of Marion, Montana. "The handful of brightest meteors that I saw came through at other angles, like this one."


    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 Notaperseid_strip


    "This was probably a sporadic--that is, a random meteor not associated with the Perseid debris stream. Jupiter and Saturn also appear in the left."


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    Post  Carol Thu Aug 12, 2021 8:20 pm

    "RARE NAKED-EYE NOVA: Every 20 years or so, a thermonuclear explosion occurs on the surface of RS Oph, a white dwarf in the constellation Ophiuchus. Yesterday it happened again. On Aug. 8th, the brightness of the tiny star increased 600-fold, from magnitude +12 to +5. Keith Geary of Ireland was the first to notice. Hours later, Italian astronomer Ernesto Guido and colleagues photographed the outburst using a remote-controlled telescope in Australia:"

    "GAMMA RAY BURST-SWARM" that had people pretty concerned it might effect the ELECTRIC GRID.

    If we are in a "SWARM" situation and not just isolated individual gamma ray bursts (we wouldn't know this unless the GRAPHS report the SOURCE--which they do not)--we could see WHY THE AUGUST 11TH "EMERGENCY BROADCAST SYSTEM" is on alert!

    We'll see. All I know is I'm feeling the "space weather sickies" that Ben Davidson's spaceweather 1-9 rating suggests (I'm at a "10!!")


    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 6706c7be07


    Gamma Ray Burst "physical symptoms" ramp up as the GRB DURATION (and proximity to the solar system) INCREASE.


    ===


    5 gamma bursts August 7

    noticed it on Schumann sensor sites

    multiple outtakes

    these go rarely down

    You can find this story at the Dr. Paul LaViolette website called "Etheric"--here's the link--wait for
    the topic "Galactic Superwaves" on the spinning menu then check "news": link to www.etheric.com


    Gamma Ray bursts are some of the most energetic of the invisible particles which strike our planet
    from space. Below is a great graphic to show the level of increase from just a campfire to a Gamma Ray Burst (luckily Earth's exposure is measured in only parts of SECONDS):


    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 Ce02734f8b
    Thing OF interest


    One of the longer-duration GRBs to hit Earth happened in December of 2004. This is reportedly one of the strongest known GRB "events" since records have been kept.

    The Dec. 2004 gamma ray burst event caused the great Sumatra Quake and Tsunami which killed over 1/2 million souls around the Pacific Ring of Fire. (Read about it at the link provided from Dr. LaViolette's web page)

    The 5 GRBs reported yesterday were extremely large and the graphics show the length of parts-of-seconds the GRB lasted.

    Hope that gives some context. I wouldn't be surprised to see at least a couple of large quakes this week.

    The Sumatra Quake response to the 12-2004 GRB was within 48 hours.


    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 LZsUQTXl
    Schumann Resonance==which is
    one effect on the planet (besides quakes) caused by
    gamma ray bursts.


    Here is a partial quote on the gamma ray burst and SUMATRA QUAKE (Dec. 2004)--and what GRB "events" can mean for Earth: from Dr. Paul LaViolette's "etheric.com" site==SUMATRA QUAKE/GAMMA RAY BURST

    On December 26, 2004 a magnitude 9.3 earthquake occurred in the Indian Ocean off the coast of Sumatra in Malaysia. It caused a powerful tsunami which devastated coastal regions of many countries leaving over 240,000 people either dead or missing. It was the worst tsunami to affect this area since the 1883 explosion of Krakatao. The earthquake that produced it was so strong that it exceeded by a factor of 10 the next most powerful earthquake to occur anywhere in the past 25 years.

    Indonesian 9.3 Richter earthquake:
    December 26, 2004 at 00 hours 58 minutes (Universal Time)

    It is then with some alarm that we learn that just 44.6 hours later gamma ray telescopes orbiting the Earth picked up the arrival of the brightest gamma ray burst ever recorded!

    Gamma ray burst arrival:
    December 27, 2004 at 21 hours 36 minutes (Universal Time)

    This gamma ray blast was 100 times more intense than any burst that had been previously recorded, equaling the brightness of the full Moon, but radiating most of its energy at gamma ray wavelengths. Gamma ray counts spiked to a maximum in 1.5 seconds and then declined over a 5 minute period with 7.57 second pulsations. The blast temporarily changed the shape the Earth’s ionosphere, distorting the transmission of long-wavelength radio signals. See stories on Space.com, BBC News, NY TImes.

    and

    It was determined that the burst originated from the soft gamma ray repeater star, SGR 1806-20, a neutron star 20 kilometers in diameter which rotates once every 7.5 seconds, matching the GRB pulsation period. SGR 1806-20 is located about 10 degrees northeast of the Galactic center and about 20,000 to 32,000 light years from us, or about as far away as the Galactic center. (Originally, it had been thought to be 45,000 light years from us. but new results place it closer.) The outburst released more energy in a tenth of a second than the Sun emits in 100,000 years. Other gamma ray bursts have been detected whose explosions were intrinsically more powerful than this one at the source of the explosion, but since those explosions originated in other galaxies tens of thousands of times more distant, the bursts were not nearly as bright when they reached our solar system. What makes the December 27th gamma ray burst unique is that it is the first time that a burst this bright has been observed, one that also happens to originate from within our own Galaxy.
    END QUOTE


    ==

    if the source of the GRB swarm was from the Pleiades constellation we would have had MAJOR earthquakes immediately. The Dec. 2004 Sumatra Quake (caused by a record-breaking GRB) was from nearly the center of the Milky Way ecliptic...32,000 light years from us.) I believe the stars of the Pleiades are CLOSER than that 32,000 light year mark--so I'm not sure what you would have been observing. Anyways, probably NOT these 5 gamma ray bursts.

    This article from NASA says The Pleiades is only 434-436 light years from our solar system (lots closer than the Dec. 2004 GRB at 32,000 light years distance with MAJOR earth damage.)
    https://www.universetoday.com/9225/distance-to-pleiades-calculated/

    ===

    RARE NAKED-EYE NOVA: Every 20 years or so, a thermonuclear explosion occurs on the surface of RS Oph, a white dwarf in the constellation Ophiuchus. This week it happened again. On Aug. 8th, the brightness of the tiny star increased 600-fold, from magnitude +12 to +5. Keith Geary of Ireland was the first to notice. Hours later, Italian astronomer Ernesto Guido and colleagues photographed the outburst using a remote-controlled telescope in Australia:

    This is called a "recurrent nova," and it is rare. In the whole Milky Way galaxy, only 7 star systems are known to produce such explosions.



    https://youtu.be/zRbH_6fd5Fo
    Rare Nova Star Explosion is Visible to the Unaided Eye - Where to Look

    Depending upon the CURRENT STRENGTH and the DIRECTION that the gamma ray burst is pointing--it could be the source for the "swarm".

    Eruption of a "repeating nova" in the Constellation Ophiuchus. This is the same general direction Dr. Paul LaViolette suggested we could expect the NEXT cycle of Galactic Superwaves to source from as well.

    Nemesis Maturity does some really excellent presentations and updates very regularly with new material. In this video he shows where to look for the nova that ison-going since yesterday. Enjoy!

    .the 2004 event and what was learned about gravity waves and gamma ray bursts was a FIRST. Before 2004 there had been ZERO THEORIES about spaceweather causing geological changes in the Earth. So, scientifically speaking, the Sumatra Quake was a very big deal for BOTH geology and astronomy.

    Here is an announcement about "the first gravitational wave actually DETECTED on Earth--The LIGO Telescope" and what that means for science: https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/news/ligo20160211

    Here is a quote from the article:

    For the first time, scientists have observed ripples in the fabric of spacetime called gravitational waves, arriving at the earth from a cataclysmic event in the distant universe. This confirms a major prediction of Albert Einstein’s 1915 general theory of relativity and opens an unprecedented new window onto the cosmos.

    Gravitational waves carry information about their dramatic origins and about the nature of gravity that cannot otherwise be obtained. Physicists have concluded that the detected gravitational waves were produced during the final fraction of a second of the merger of two black holes to produce a single, more massive spinning black hole. This collision of two black holes had been predicted but never observed.

    The gravitational waves were detected on September 14, 2015 at 5:51 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time (09:51 UTC) by both of the twin Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) detectors, located in Livingston, Louisiana, and Hanford, Washington, USA. The LIGO Observatories are funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF), and were conceived, built, and are operated by Caltech and MIT. The discovery, accepted for publication in the journal Physical Review Letters, was made by the LIGO Scientific Collaboration (which includes the GEO Collaboration and the Australian Consortium for Interferometric Gravitational Astronomy) and the Virgo Collaboration using data from the two LIGO detectors.

    More at this GLP thread: https://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message4872572/pg2


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    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
    Carol
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    Post  Carol Sun Aug 15, 2021 10:31 am

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 Coronalhole_sdo_200
    Coronal Holes: 15 Aug 21

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 Prom_strip2
    Solar wind speed: 438.4 km/sec

    HUGE SOLAR PROMINENCE: Around the world, astronomers are monitoring a huge prominence on the sun's northeastern limb. Clayton Hare sends this picture from Newfoundland, Canada:

    "The prominence was very active," says Hare. "It seemed to be streaming downwards ... not toward the sun actually ... but drifting away like tendrils of smoke from a fire."

    Solar prominences are clouds of hydrogen gas held up by magnetic fields. This one is 10 times taller than Earth and at least 25 times as wide. The dynamics observed by Hare suggest instability. The next photo of this huge structure, whoever takes it, might capture an explosion.


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
    Carol
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    Post  Carol Mon Aug 16, 2021 3:02 pm

    FARSIDE EXPLOSION: Yesterday, Aug. 15th (0508 UT), a gigantic filament of magnetism erupted from the farside of the sun: movie. SOHO saw a CME fly away from the blast site, but it will not hit Earth. The explosion is interesting because it signals the presence of an active region on the farside of the sun, which could turn to face us later this week.

    GIANT SOLAR PROMINENCE: For the 3rd day in a row, a fiery prominence is dancing along the sun's northeastern limb. The shapeshifting structure has grown taller each day. Today, says photographer Maximilian Teodorescu, "it looks like a ghost rider on a horse."


    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 Ghostrider_strip

    A really, really big horse. It's almost 10 times taller than Earth and 15 times as wide. These dimensions make it an easy target for backyard solar telescopes.

    Solar prominences are clouds of hydrogen gas held up by magnetic fields. The dynamics of this one suggest it is unstable. The next photo of this prominence, whoever takes it, might capture an explosion.   Solar wind speed: 476.9 km/sec


    ==

    PERSEID METEOR SMOKE: Photographer James W. Young was watching the sky on Aug. 13th when a fragment of Comet 109P/Swift-Tuttle hit the atmosphere over Oregon traveling 130,000 mph. This is what happened:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 Perseid_smoke_strip

    "This -6 magnitude Perseid fireball disintegrated in front of my camera and left a smokey trail that lingered for nearly 3 minutes," says Young.

    The comet fragment was probably the size of a pebble or, at most, a golf ball. Slicing through the atmosphere, its surface rapidly ablated, vaporizing to form a trail of dust-sized specks and molten microdroplets almost 30 km long. As Young watched, the "Perseid smoke" diffused into the mesosphere where, one day, it might catch a wisp of water vapor and turn into a noctilucent cloud.


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    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Fri Aug 27, 2021 8:40 am

    WEAK IMPACT: As predicted, a CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Aug. 27th (0100 UT). The impact was weak, lifting the solar wind speed by less than 50 km/s; it did not cause a geomagnetic storm. The CME was hurled in our direction by an unstable solar filament on Aug. 23rd.

    SOLAR TSUNAMI AND CME: Sunspot AR2859 erupted on Aug. 26th, producing a C3-class solar flare. The flare, however, was not the main attraction. The eruption also caused a massive "solar tsunami." Watch the shadowy wave ripple across the sun in this false-color ultraviolet movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:


    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 Tsunami_strip


    The expanding circular shadow is a wave of hot plasma and magnetism. Based on the time it took to reach the next sunspot, halfway around the sun, the tsunami was traveling 110,000 mph.

    Solar tsumanis always herald a CME, and this one was no exception. Soon after the tsunami broke, SOHO coronagraphs detected a CME: movie. The storm cloud appears to be heading for Earth. NOAA analysts are looking at the CME now, using computer models to determine its arrival time. Our guess: Aug. 30th.


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Sun Aug 29, 2021 2:23 pm

    MINOR STORM WARNING: A CME hurled into space by Thursday's solar tsumani is expected to strike Earth later today (Aug. 29th) or tomorrow (Aug 30th). NOAA forecasters say there is a chance of minor G1-class geomagnetic storms when the CME arrives. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

    AFTERGLOW OF A CME: On Aug. 27th, skies over Canada filled with color. It was the afterglow of a CME:


    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 Afterglow_strip

    "What a great show," says photographer Jocelyn Blanchette, who took the picture from Fermont, Quebec.

    The source of the display was a CME that struck Earth's magnetosphere the day before. At first the impact had little effect. But then Earth entered the CME's strongly-magnetized wake. Our planet's magnetic field is linked up with the CME's, sparking a G1-class geomagnetic storm and a lovely auroral afterglow.


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Fri Sep 03, 2021 9:45 am

    QUIET WITH A CHANCE OF UNREST: Following yesterday's complete miss by two CMEs, Earth's magnetic field is calm and quiet. The next episode of unrest is due on Sept. 5th when a stream of solar wind is expected to reach our planet. The gaseous material is flowing from an equatorial hole in the sun's atmosphere. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

    THE DANGER OF SUNSPOTS THAT DON'T FACE EARTH: Big sunspot AR2860 is about to disappear over the sun's western limb. This makes it uniquely dangerous. Scroll past this image of the departing sunspot taken by Romanian astronomer Maximilian Teodorescu to find out why:


    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 Partingspot_strip

    Sunspots located near the sun's western limb are magnetically connected to Earth. The sun's magnetic field spirals around like a lawn sprinker--a shape known as the "Parker spiral." Look at this diagram. Lines of magnetic force coming out of the western limb curve around and touch our planet.

    If there is an eruption today while AR2860 is passing through this danger zone, the debris will be funneled back to Earth. The resulting radiation storm could pepper satellites with high-energy protons, fogging cameras and causing reboots of onboard electronics. At such times, shortwave radio propagation can become difficult to impossible. During extreme storms, passengers and crew in commercial aircraft may be exposed to radiation.

    Hurry through the danger zone, AR2860!


    _________________
    What is life?
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    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Fri Sep 10, 2021 5:10 pm

    A LOPSIDED CME IS COMING: Last week, 3 CMEs missed Earth. Will this week be different? Another CME is on the way following an explosion in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2864 on Sept. 8th. NOAA analysts believe Earth could experience a glancing blow or near miss late on Sept. 11th.


    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 Sunrise2_strip2


    SUNSPOT SUNRISE: Sunrise on Sept. 9th was something special. "This is how the sun came up over the Sierra del Cid--with a sun full of spots and mountaineers surrounded by pines," says photographer Jordi L. Coy of Spain.

    Yes, this picture is real. Coy took it using a Canon 5D MK IV digital camera and a safe solar filter. "It is only one exposure," he says.

    It's been years since images like this were possible. The last time the sun had so many spots was Sept. 2017 at the tail end of old Solar Cycle 24. New Solar Cycle 25 is matching and could soon exceed its predecessor. Stay tuned for more weird sunrises.


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    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Sun Sep 12, 2021 12:36 pm

    STILL WAITING FOR THE CME: Hope is fading that an aurora-producing CME might strike Earth this weekend. The storm cloud left the sun on Sept. 8th, propelled by an explosion in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2864. NOAA analysts thought it might graze our planet late on Sept. 11th, but it has not yet arrived. Two options remain: Tardy or off-target. Either way, a geomagnetic storm is unlikely.

    A PROMINENCE BLOWS ITS TOP: The photo-op is over. A huge solar prominence that astronomers around the world have been photographing this weekend has blown its top.NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the eruption:


    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 Eruption_strip_opt


    Prominences are giant clouds of hydrogen held above the surface of the sun by magnetic fields. This was one of the biggest in years. At its apex yesterday it curled around almost 20% of the sun's circumference. Such large structures made of plasma and magnetism rarely last long and, as expected, the prominence collapsed on Sept. 12th, hurling part of itself into space.

    A CME might be forthcoming. Confirmation awaits fresh data from SOHO coronagraphs. If so, the cloud is unlikely to strike Earth (another miss!) because of the prominence's location on the far eastern limb of the sun.


    _________________
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    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:48 pm

    SOLAR WIND FROM THE SUN'S NORTH POLE: Earth is inside a minor stream of solar wind leaking from a far-northern hole in the sun's atmosphere. Geomagnetic storms are not expected. Nevertheless, the action of the stream could spark auroras around the Arctic Circle on Sept. 13-14. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

    TWILIGHT AURORAS: It's that time of year. Inside the Arctic Circle, the summer sun is receding as autumn approaches. With this transition comes a rare mixture of colors: twilight blue and aurora green. Rayann Elzein photographed the mash-up over Utsjoki, Finland on Sept. 10th:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 Twilight_strip

    "Auroras appeared during evening twilight, way before the sky became completely dark," says Elzein. "It was the strongest show in quite a while, possibly even one of the strongest of this 2021 calendar year--a night to remember!"

    The display was caused by a CME that almost hit Earth. The storm cloud passed by our planet, a near-miss that pushed aside ambient solar wind, shoving some into Earth's magnetosphere. It was just enough of an "impact" to illuminate the Arctic circle with twilight auroras.


    _________________
    What is life?
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    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Fri Sep 17, 2021 4:53 pm

    GEOMAGNETIC STORM IN PROGRESS: Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are underway on Sept. 17th as Earth passes through the wake of a CME (described below) that struck earlier in the day. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras after local nightfall. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

    THE AFTERGLOW OF A 'WEAK' CME: A CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Sept. 17th at ~0200 UT. The impact was very weak, lifting the solar wind speed by a measly 40 km/s. Despite such a feeble blow, the CME managed to stir geomagnetic activity hours later when Earth encountered magnetic fields in the CME's wake. Marketa Murray sends this picture from Fairbanks, Alaska:


    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 Mm_strip


    "After waiting all night long for a storm, the skies filed up with reds, purples, pinks, greens and were dancing 'til sunrise," says Murray. "Absolutely amazing!"

    Her picture shows why even weak CMEs are eagerly anticipated by aurora photographers. The magnetized storm clouds have a knack for opening cracks in Earth's magnetic field, allowing solar wind to enter the magnetosphere. Just imagine what a strong CME could do.


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Thu Sep 23, 2021 6:04 pm

    SOLAR ACTIVITY INTENSIFIES: So far today, sunspot AR2871 has produced two M-class solar flares, an M2 (1528 UT) and an M3 (0442 UT). The more powerful of the two flares is detailed below. Both explosions hurled CMEs into space, but perhaps not directly toward Earth. Glancing blows are possible on Sept. 26-27. Stay tuned for updates as more data become available. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

    M-CLASS SOLAR FLARE AND CME (UPDATED):[/b] Sunspot AR2871 exploded on Sept 23rd (0442 UT), producing a strong M3-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:


    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 M3_anim_strip


    USAF observatories report Type II and Type IV solar radio bursts in the flare's immediate aftermath. This suggests that a CME was produced as well (because such radio bursts typically come from shock waves in a CME's leading edge). If so, the CME is probably heading toward Earth.

    UPDATE: Newly-arriving coronagraph images from SOHO confirm that the explosion hurled a CME into space. However, the CME is not heading as directly toward Earth as originally suspected. This first-look movie shows a storm cloud traveling mainly to the south and east of our planet. A glancing-blow might be possible on Sept. 26-27. Stay tuned for additional analysis.


    _________________
    What is life?
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    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Fri Sep 24, 2021 12:58 pm

    MINOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: NOAA forecasters say there is a 40% chance of minor G1-class geomagnetic storms on Sept. 26th when a high-speed stream of solar wind is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. The gaseous material is flowing from an equatorial hole in the sun's atmosphere. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

    OFF-TARGET CMEs: Sunspot AR2871 erupted twice yesterday, producing two significant M-class solar flares. Each explosion hurled a CME into space. Click to set the storm clouds in motion:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 Cme_splash2

    When it exploded, the sunspot was almost-directly facing Earth, yet the CMEs are off-target. They are not heading our way. Why not? A large hole in the sun's atmosphere located west of AR2871 is spewing solar wind into space. The emerging stream of gas may have deflected the CMEs.

    There is still a chance that Earth might feel the effects of these CMEs when they pass near our planet on Sept. 27th. A glancing blow or even a near-miss could be enough to unsettle Earth's magnetic field.


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    Post  Carol Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:41 pm

    Saturday, Sep. 25, 2021

    UPGRADED GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Earth's magnetic field might receive a double blow this weekend. First, a stream of solar wind is expected to hit on Sept. 26th. Next, a CME might graze Earth during the early hours of Sept. 27th. The combined effect could produce geomagnetic storms as strong as category G2 with auroras visible in northern-tier US states during the night of Sept. 26-27. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

    A GIGANTIC JET WITH FIREBALLS: Lightning on Earth is getting weirder and weirder. On the evening of Sept. 20th, Puerto Rican photographer Frankie Lucena pointed his Sony A7s camera at an offshore electrical storm. This is what he saw:


    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 Carrotjet_strip_anim

    This Gigantic Jet plasma event occurred over a very powerful thunderstorm near the Virgin Islands just ahead of Tropical Storm Peter," says Lucena.  "I can't believe I was able to capture such amazing details."

    Indeed, this is one of the best-ever photos of a Gigantic Jet. Sometimes called "Earth's tallest lightning," because they reach the ionosphere more than 50 miles high, the towering forms were discovered near Taiwan and Puerto Rico in 2001-2002. Since then, only dozens of Gigantic Jets have been photographed. They seem to love storms over water and are famous for surprising passengers onboard commercial aircraft.
    In 2017 and 2018, lightning researcher Oscar van der Velde of the Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya set up high speed cameras on the northern coast of Colombia in a dedicated campaign to capture Gigantic Jets. In three months of observing time he managed to capture only 12. That's how elusive they are.


    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 Weathermap_strip

    "Frankie has photographed a rare Gigantic Jet with 'carrot' morphology, first reported by Su et al (2003)," notes van der Velde. "The other, more common type of jet has a 'tree' morphology." Here is a comparison: trees vs. carrots.

    "Carrot jets" are remarkable for their internal beads--that is, bright balls of light hundreds of meters wide. Lucena caught dozens of them illuminating the jet's midsection. They might be places where streamers inside the jet are intersecting, or regions of enhanced heating.

    "We don't know," says van der Velde. "Gigantic Jets are not easily placed in front of a spectrograph."

    Meanwhile, Lucena is still marveling at what happened. "This is the brightest Gigantic Jet I have ever seen. It was truly remarkable."


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    Post  Carol Sun Sep 26, 2021 7:44 pm

    Geomagnetic Storm Watch Issued for Earth for Sunday


    BY WEATHERBOY TEAM METEOROLOGIST - SEPTEMBER 24, 2021
    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 CMEimagehttps://weatherboy.com/geomagnetic-storm-watch-issued-for-earth-for-sunday/

    Artist’s depiction of an active sun that has released a coronal mass ejection or CME. CMEs are magnetically generated solar phenomenon that can send billions of tons of solar particles, or plasma, into space that can reach Earth one to three days later and affect electronic systems in satellites and on the ground. Credit: NASA


    9/25/21 Update: Geomagnetic Storm Watch Upgraded for G2 Storm: Details here in new article: https://weatherboy.com/geomagnetic-storm-watch-now-upgraded-to-g2-level-storm-northern-lights-heading-south/


    The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) , a unit of the U.S. Department of Commerce under  NOAA,which sits alongside its terrestrial National Weather Service,  has issued a Geomagnetic Storm Watch for all of Earth for Sunday, September 26 for the possibility of G1 or G2 storm conditions.


    On Thursday, a sunspot, known as AR2871, experienced two explosive eruptions, each producing a significant M-class solar flare. Solar flares are classified according to their strength, on a B-C-M-X scale. B flares are the smallest while X are the largest. Similar to the Richter scale used to help quantify earthquakes, each letter represents a ten-fold increase in energy output. Within each letter class, there is also a finer scale that usually extends from 1-9. Within the powerful X class of flares, the number could exceed 9 to reflect a massive flare event.

    While there are fears that a future blast from the sun will disrupt electricity, communication, and internet lines for weeks, this event does not seem to have that type of potential with it. However, some impacts, including an electrified display of the Northern Lights at northern latitudes, are expected.

    Dark regions on the Sun known as coronal holes are one of the main drivers of space weather now. According to the Space Weather Prediction Center, coronal holes appear as dark regions on the Sun because they are cooler than the surrounding plasma and are open magnetic field lines. The Sun’s outermost part of its atmosphere, which is known as the corona, is where these dark regions appear. The solar corona was also one of the main features of the Sun scientists were most excited to study during the past solar eclipse. You are able to notice these features in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and soft x-ray solar images.


    Solar wind is always flowing from the Sun and towards Earth but coronal holes are known for releasing enhanced solar wind. Coronal holes can develop anywhere on the sun and are more common during solar minimum. One solar rotation of the Sun occurs every 27 days and coronal holes are sometimes able to last several of these. It is common to see persistent coronal holes at the north and south pole of the Sun but sometimes they can expand towards the equator of the Sun resulting in a larger region. Normally, coronal holes located near the Sun’s equator, result in faster solar wind arriving at Earth. It is common to see coronal holes produce G1-G2 geomagnetic storming levels and sometimes on rare occasions, upwards to G3 levels have been met.
    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 ACE-Coronal-Hole-Data-300x225

    This is an example of the data forecasters will look at to determine when the coronal hole effects are arriving. Image: NASA/Aurorasaurus

    Geomagnetic storms are rated on a 1-5 scale, with 1 being the weakest and 5 having the most potential for damage. Even a  G1 geomagnetic storm could create issues:  there could be weak power grid fluctuations and minor impacts on satellite operations. Aurora, also known as the “Northern Lights”, could be visible at high latitudes from northern Michigan and Maine to points north. Impacts and aurora change as the geomagnetic storm scale increase.
    NOAA forecasters analyze these features and have to take them into account during each forecast. If Earth is experiencing the effects of a coronal hole and a coronal mass ejection is forecasted to impact Earth, the combined effects could result in a more significant impact and more intense geomagnetic storming. Analyzing data from the DSCOVER and ACE satellite is one way forecasters can tell when the enhanced solar wind from a coronal hole is about to arrive at Earth. A few things they look for in the data to determine when the enhanced solar wind is arriving at Earth:


    Solar wind speed increases
    • Temperature increases
    • Particle density decreases
    • Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength increases



    While these solar events can help illuminate the sky with stunning aurora, they can also do considerable harm to electronics, electrical grids, and satellite and radio communications. That isn’t expected this week, but such an event could happen in the future.


    On September 1-2 in 1859, a powerful geomagnetic storm struck Earth during Solar Cycle 10. A CME hit the Earth and induced the largest geomagnetic storm on record.  The storm was so intense it created extremely bright, vivid aurora throughout the planet: people in California thought the sun rose early, people in the northeastern U.S. could read a newspaper at night from the aurora’s bright light, and people as far south as Hawaii and south-central Mexico could see the aurora in the sky.

    The event severely damaged the limited electrical and communication lines that existed at that time; telegraph systems around the world failed, with some telegraph operators reporting they received electric shocks.



    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 SolarProbe-300x264

    Artist rendering of the Parker Solar Probe in space, one of the assets scientists use to better understand solar activity and their impacts to Earth . Image: NASA

    A June 2013 study by Lloyd’s of London and Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) in the U.S. showed that if the Carrington event happened in modern times, damages in the U.S. could exceed $2.6 trillion, roughly 15% of the nation’s annual GDP.


    While typically known for their weather forecasts, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and its National Weather Service (NWS) is also responsible for “space weather.” While there are private companies and other agencies that monitor and forecast space weather, the official source for  alerts and warnings of the space environment is the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). The SWPC is located in Boulder, Colorado and is a service center of the NWS, which is part of NOAA. The Space Weather Prediction Center is also one of nine National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) as they monitor current space weather activity 24/7, 365 days a year.


    AR2871 initially produced a  M1.8 flare and a subsequent coronal mass ejection (CME). According to the SWPC, initial analysis and model run indicate an overtaking of the slightly slower CME that was also produced by region 2871 earlier on the 23rd with an arrival anticipated for the first half of  September 27.


    A coronal hole high speed stream, known as CH HSS for short, is due to hit the Earth by midday on the 26th. The National Weather Service’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) says,  “Isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely 26 September as a positive polarity CH HSS extension from the Northern crown becomes geoeffective.” A previous Space Weather Forecast Discussion released by the SWPC also says G2 conditions are also a possibility.


    Right now, the SWPC says there is a 30% chance of only active geomagnetic activity on the 26th, a 40% chance of a “minor storm”, a 25% chance of a “moderate storm”, and a 1% chance of a “strong-extreme storm.”


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    Post  Carol Thu Sep 30, 2021 9:18 am

    GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are likely on Oct. 1st when a CME is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. The incoming CME was hurled in our direction by a C1.6-class solar flare from decaying sunspot AR2871 on Sept. 28th. There is a chance that the CME will sweep up another, less massive CME en route to Earth. The combined impact could boost storm levels to category G2


    EARTH CAN MAKE ITS OWN AURORAS: No solar storms? No problem. Earth has learned to make its own auroras. New results from NASA's THEMIS-ARTEMIS spacecraft show that a type of Northern Lights called "diffuse auroras" comes from our own planet--no solar storms required.

    Diffuse auroras look a bit like pea soup. They spread across the sky in a dim green haze, sometimes rippling as if stirred by a spoon. They're not as flamboyant as auroras caused by solar storms. Nevertheless, they are important because they represent a whopping 75% of the energy input into Earth's upper atmosphere at night. Researchers have been struggling to understand them for decades.

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 Peasoup_strip
    Above: Diffuse auroras and the Big Dipper, photographed 
    by Emmanuel Masongsong in Fairbanks, AK


    "We believe we have found the source of these auroras," says UCLA space physicist Xu Zhang, lead author of two papers reporting the results in the Journal of Geophysical Research and Physics of Plasmas.

    It is Earth itself. Earth performs the trick using electron beams. High above our planet's poles, beams of negatively-charged particles shoot upward into space, accelerated by electric fields in Earth's magnetosphere. Sounding rockets and satellites discovered the beams decades ago. It turns out, they can power the diffuse auroras.

    The video, below, shows how it works. The beams travel in great arcs through the space near Earth. As they go, they excite ripples in the magnetosphere called Electron Cyclotron Harmonic (ECH) waves. Turn up the volume and listen to the waves recorded by THEMIS-ARTEMIS:


    Above: The electrical circuit in space, which powers diffuse auroras. ECH waves were sonified by NASA's HARP (Heliophysics Audified: Resonances in Plasmas) software.


    ECH waves, in turn, knock other electrons out of their orbits, forcing them to fall back down onto the atmosphere. This rain of secondary electrons powers the diffuse auroras.


    "This is exciting," says UCLA professor Vassilis Angelopoulos, a co-author of the papers and lead of the THEMIS-ARTEMIS mission. "We have found a totally new way that particle energy can be transferred from Earth's own atmosphere out to the magnetosphere and back again, creating a giant feedback loop in space."

    According to Angelopoulos, Earth's polar electron beams sometimes weaken but they never completely go away, not even during periods of low solar activity. This means Earth can make auroras without solar storms.

    The sun is currently experiencing periods of quiet as young Solar Cycle 25 sputters to life. Pea soup, anyone?


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    Post  Carol Tue Oct 05, 2021 10:04 am

    SOLAR CYCLE UPDATE: Solar Cycle 25 continues to overperform. Sunspot counts for Sept. 2021 were the highest in more than 5 years. And, for the 11th month in a row, the sunspot number has significantly exceeded the official forecast.

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 Progression_strip

    The plot above shows sunspot counts vs. time. The red curve traces the forecast issued by the NOAA/NASA Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel in 2019. It calls for a relatively weak solar cycle peaking in July 2025.

    The sun has a mind of its own, though. Higher-than-expected sunspot counts suggest a stronger cycle, with a peak occurring in late 2024 instead of mid-2025. This is good news for aurora watchers, but maybe not so good for the Internet.




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    Post  Carol Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:37 pm

    HUGE Solar Storm Could Hit Earth Any Moment Now

    UK and US meteorologists are predicting a possible ejection of plasma from the sun any moment that could cause havoc with already struggling power grids and spacecraft navigation systems.

    Spectacular auroras may be visible in New York and northern England, with effects likely to last into Tuesday.

    The potential solar storm comes as the UK’s National Grid warned the gap between energy supply and demand is at its worst in six years, with blackouts possible “if we have a very cold winter”.

    GEOMAGNETIC STORM, SLIGHTLY DELAYED: A CME expected to hit Earth on Oct. 11th is running late. As a result, NOAA forecasters have shifted their prediction of a possible G2-class geomagnetic storm from Oct. 11th to Oct. 12th. G2-class storms are moderately strong, and can produce naked-eye auroras in northern-tier US states. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

    DEPARTING SUNSPOT EXPLODES, MISSES EARTH: Yesterday, Oct. 10th (2302 UT), an active region on the western edge of the sun exploded, producing a C2-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured a plume of hot plasma flying out of the blast site:


    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 Cflare_anim_strip

    The debris will not hit Earth. Shortly after the blast, SOHO coronagraphs detected a CME emerging from the blast site, but it was narrow and moving outside the Earth strike zone. Modeling by NOAA analysts has ruled out even a glancing blow.


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    Post  Carol Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:24 am

    Volcano Eruptions, Earthquakes and Floods. 'NOW' expecting HUGE Solar Storm: Could Hit Earth Any Moment Now

    UK and US meteorologists are predicting a possible ejection of plasma from the sun any moment that could cause havoc with already struggling power grids and spacecraft navigation systems.

    Spectacular auroras may be visible in New York and northern England, with effects likely to last into Tuesday.

    The potential solar storm comes as the UK’s National Grid warned the gap between energy supply and demand is at its worst in six years, with BLACKOUTS possible “if we have a very cold winter”.

    CME IMPACT SPARKS GEOMAGNETIC STORM: As predicted, a CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 12th. The impact at approximately 02:30 UT sparked a G2-class geomagnetic storm. Auroras spread across northern Europe, Iceland, Canada, and multiple northern-tier US states.


    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 Shockfront_strip


    Abruptly, the solar wind speed increased by 120 km/s. At the same time, the plasma density tripled, and the temperature increased almost 10-fold: more data. These are signs of a classic direct hit by a CME.

    The storm's G2-category apex may be over now, but lesser G1-class storms are likely for the rest of Oct. 12th. High-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras.

    In Maine, the auroras were so bright, meteorologist James Sinko was able to photograph them using nothing more than his cell phone:


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    Post  Carol Fri Oct 15, 2021 7:02 am

    Volcano Eruptions, Earthquakes and Floods. 'NOW' expecting HUGE Solar Storm: Could Hit Earth Any Moment Now
    https://news.sky.com/story/geomagnetic-storm-warning-as-solar-flare-expected-to-directly-hit-earth-today-12431243


    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 Skynews-solar-flare-nasa_5003717


    UK and US meteorologists are predicting a possible ejection of plasma from the sun any moment that could cause havoc with already struggling power grids and spacecraft navigation systems.

    Spectacular auroras may be visible in New York and northern England, with effects likely to last into Tuesday.

    The potential solar storm comes as the UK’s National Grid warned the gap between energy supply and demand is at its worst in six years, with BLACKOUTS possible “if we have a very cold winter”.


    AURORA FORECAST: Another CME is coming, but this one might miss. A magnetic filament connected to sunspot AR2882 erupted during the early hours of Oct. 12th. The debris is expected to pass in front of Earth on Oct. 15th. The near-miss could spark Arctic auroras, but probably no geomagnetic storm. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

    A VOLCANIC COMET BLOWS ITS TOP: So you think you know what a comet is? Think again. Comet 29P/Schwassmann-Wachmann is challenging old ideas. Astronomers call it a comet, but, really, "giant space volcano" might be a better description. It's a 60-km-wide ball of ice orbiting the Sun beyond Jupiter, and it appears to be one of the most volcanically active bodies in the entire Solar System.

    Comet 29P just blew its top ... again. In late September 2021, 29P erupted four times in quick succession, blowing shells of "cryomagma" into space. Arizona amateur astronomer Eliot Herman has been monitoring the debris:


    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 Expansion2b_strip


    "Initially it looked like a bright compact object," says Herman. "Now the expanding cloud is 1.3 arcminutes wide (bigger than Jupiter) and sufficiently transparent for background stars to shine through."

    When this object was discovered in 1927, astronomers thought they had found a fairly run-of-the-mill comet, unusual mainly because it was trapped in a nearly circular orbit between Jupiter and Saturn. 29P quickly proved them wrong as it began to erupt over and over again. Modern observations show that outbursts are happening as often as 20 times a year.

    "The current outburst, which began on Sept. 25th, appears to be the most energetic of the past 40 years," says Dr. Richard Miles of the British Astronomical Association (BAA). "Within a span of only 56 hours, four eruptions took place in quick succession, creating a 'superoutburst.'"

    Miles has developed a theory to explain what's happening. The "comet," he believes, is festooned with ice volcanoes. There is no lava. Instead, the volcanoes are powered by a mixture of liquid hydrocarbons (e.g., CH4, C2H4, C2H6 and C3H8) akin to those found in the lakes and streams of Saturn's moon Titan. In Miles's model, the cryomagma contains a sprinkling of dust and it is suffused with dissolved gases N2 and CO, all trapped beneath a surface which, in some places, has the consistency of wax. These bottled-up volatiles love to explode when a fissure is opened.


    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 Lesseroutbursts_strip

    Above: A time series of previous outbursts from June 2020 - April 2021. These are all small compared to the current superoutburst. Source: Mission 29P.

    In a seminal paper published 5 years ago, Miles studied more than a decade's worth of eruptions, and he found some patterns. The data suggest that 29P rotates every 57.7 days. The most active vents are concentrated on one side of the ice-ball in a range of longitudes less than 150 degrees wide. At least 6 discrete sources have been identified.

    While most outbursts fade within a week or so, this superoutburst is still visible. The rat-a-tat-tat eruption in September boosted the comet's brightness 250-fold, and it hasn't declined much since then. With an integrated magnitude between +10 and +11, the expanding cloud is well within reach of backyard telescopes.

    "Comet 29P can be seen with an 8 inch 'scope," says Herman. "In smaller instruments it will appear to be a bright dot. To resolve the cloud and photograph individual stars shining through it, I used the big half-meter iTelescope T11."

    Ready see something weird? 29P is located in the constellation Auriga, easy to find high in the sky at midnight. Visit Sky&Telescope for observing tips. Also, for the latest news check out the BAA's MISSION 29P website.


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    Post  Carol Sat Oct 16, 2021 7:31 am

    CO-ROTATING INTERACTION REGION: Geomagnetic unrest is possible on Oct. 18th when a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) hits Earth's magnetic field. CIRs are transition zones between fast- and slow-moving streams of solar wind. Sharp, shock-like density gradients and enhanced magnetic fields in CIRs often do a good job sparking Arctic auroras.


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    Post  Carol Sun Oct 24, 2021 8:28 am

    FARSIDE SUNSPOTS: The sunspot number is about to increase. NASA's STEREO-A spacecraft is monitoring three active regions on the farside of the sun. All three are poised to rotate over the sun's eastern limb in the next 2 to 3 days. A fourth, AR2887, described below, is already here. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text.

    THE STRANGE MAGNETISM OF SUNSPOT AR2887: Something does not add up. New sunspot AR2887 has two primary cores, each about the size of Earth. Usually when a sunspot looks like this, the two cores have opposite magnetic polarities, positive (+) and negative (-). In this case, however, they're the same.

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 Strangemagnetism_crop_strip
    Pictured above is a magnetic map of AR2887 from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory. It shows the primary poles of double sunspot AR2887 are both negative (-). Surrounding patches of positive (+) magnetic flux provide balance.

    Perhaps AR2887 is not one but actually two sunspots jammed together in close proximity. We'll get a better view of its magnetic architecture as AR2887 turns toward Earth in the days ahead.


    Last edited by Carol on Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:46 am; edited 1 time in total


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    Post  Carol Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:45 am

    SOMETHING FLARE-Y THIS WAY COMES: Suddenly, the northeastern limb of the sun is bursting with activity. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded this frenetic 5-hour sequence during the early hours of Oct. 26th:


    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 Insane_strip_opt2


    At least half a dozen explosions occured during that brief movie. The blast site is hidden just behind the edge of the sun. It's almost certainly an unstable sunspot. The sun's rotation will bring it into view within the next 24-48 hours, creating a geoeffective source of solar activity.


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    Post  Carol Fri Oct 29, 2021 6:00 pm

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 SDO_X1_Flare_10-28_304-171Blend
    An X1.0 class solar flare flashes in the lower center of the Sun on October 28, 2021

    THE SUN launched a massive solar flare yesterday that's headed in Earth's direction – the strongest storm seen in the current weather cycle.

    The volley of radiation may trigger the northern lights if it collides with our atmosphere, and could cause major issues for power grids, experts suggest.

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 2 SDO_X1_Flare_10-28-21_131

    NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory, which tracks the Sun's activity, captured an image of the event at 11:35 a.m. EST (4:35 p.m. BST) on Thursday.

    It has already caused a temporary, but strong, radio blackout in parts of South America, according to the U.S. Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC).

    The flare is the result of a coronal mass ejection (CME) – a huge expulsion of plasma from the Sun's outer layer, called the corona.

    In a blog post, Nasa said that the "significant" flare has been classified an X1.

    Flares are ranked by letter, with the biggest labelled as "X-class." The smallest flares are "A-class."

    Higher numbers designate more intense flares. Nasa logged an X28 in 2003, though an X1 is still a significant eruption.


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      Current date/time is Sun Jun 23, 2024 6:47 am