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    SpaceWeather updates

    Carol
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    Post  Carol Wed Nov 29, 2023 11:11 am


    Earth will be bombarded by intense solar storms next YEAR: Scientists predict we'll reach 'solar maximum' in 2024 - with flares strong enough to cripple the world's internet for WEEKS

    About every 11 years, the sun goes through what's known as 'solar maximum' - when many bizarre dark spots appear on its surface. These sunspots shoot out violent explosions of energy towards Earth, causing 'solar storms' that can potentially damage satellites and disrupt the internet. Unfortunately, a new study reveals that this solar maximum is coming sooner than expected - most likely in early 2024 but possibly as late as September.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-12804015/Earth-bombarded-intense-solar-storms-YEAR-Scientists-predict-reach-solar-maximum-2024-flares-strong-cripple-worlds-internet-WEEKS.html

    Researchers have discovered a new relationship between the Sun’s magnetic field and its sunspot cycle, that can help predict when the peak in solar activity will occur. This image from the Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the sun with multiple sunspots, which appear dark compared with their surroundings.

    'The most intense storms can sometimes result in catastrophic orbital decay of low Earth orbiting satellites and disrupt satellite based services such as communications and navigational networks,' he told MailOnline.

    'They can also induce strong disturbances in the geomagnetic field tripping electric power grids located in high latitude regions.

    'Of course, they also create beautiful auroras so we can expect 2024 to be a good year for aurora hunters.'

    Dr Nandi and his colleagues have managed to come up with a new way to detect the solar maximum, but understanding it requires some basic knowledge about our solar system's life-giving star.
    ==

    GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G3): Three and perhaps four CMEs are heading for Earth following a series of explosions on the sun this week. Estimated time of arrival: Nov. 30th and Dec. 1st. The biggest of the CMEs, launched on Nov. 28th, could sweep up some of the earlier, lesser ones, forming a Cannibal CME capable of sparking strong G3-class geomagnetic storms with mid-latitude auroras.

    ALMOST-X CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Sunspot AR3500 erupted on Nov. 28th (1950 UT), producing an M9.8-class solar flare (only percentage points below category X). NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the blast:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 11 M9_teal_anim_crop

    A pulse of extreme ultraviolet radiation blacked out shortwave radio communications across the South Pacific Ocean and parts of the Americas: map. Mariners and ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal at frequencies below ~20 MHz for as much as an hour after the flare.

    Of greater interest is the CME. The explosion hurled one directly toward Earth. This SOHO coronagraph movie shows a halo cloud expanding in our direction faster than 800 km/s (1.8 million mph):

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 11 Halocme_opt

    According to a NASA model, this CME will strike Earth midday (UT) on Dec. 1st. It might sweep up one of several slower CMEs ahead of it. If so, it could form a Cannibal CME capable of causing a strong G3-class geomagnetic storm.


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    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol

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    Carol
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    Post  Carol Sat Dec 02, 2023 6:30 am

    A HOLE IN THE SUN'S ATMOSPHERE: A huge hole has opened in the sun's atmosphere, and it is directly facing Earth. Solar wind flowing from the hole will reach our planet on Dec. 4th or 5th. Its arrival should spark G1-class geomagnetic storms.

    STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM:A Cannibal CME struck Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 1st, sparking a strong G3-class geomagnetic storm with auroras in both hemispheres. "We witnessed an incredible show on the Canterbury coastline overlooking the Pacific Ocean," reports Mike White from New Zealand. "The sound of waves crashing onto the beach and washing across the stony pebbles created the perfect soundtrack for these Southern Lights."

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 11 Nz_strip

    "The Cannibal CME arrived just as New Zealand skies were darkening. The resulting cloud of charged particles rained down Earth's magnetic field lines and delivered a light show that lasted for hours. It was easily visible to the naked eye."

    Meanwhile in the northern hemisphere, auroras descended as far south as Arizona and California. Marybeth Kiczenski was in rural Wisonsin when the Northern Lights raced overhead:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 11 Wi_strip

    This is my favorite tree in Wisconsin," says Kiczenski. "After five separate attempts for catch auroras at this location, it finally came together!"

    The storm is subsiding now, with minor G1-class activity in progress as Earth exits the CME's wake. High latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras through Dec. 2nd.


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    Post  Carol Mon Dec 04, 2023 6:29 am

    GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G2): Earth's magnetic field is about to receive a double blow. First, on Dec. 4th, a high-speed stream of solar wind flowing from a coronal hole will arrive. Then, on Dec. 5th, an off-target CME could deliver a glancing blow. Their combined effect is expected to cause G1 (Minor) to G2-class (Moderate) geomagnetic storms with photographic auroras at mid-latitudes. Solar wind increase: speed: 550.0 km/sec

    A HOLE IN THE SUN'S ATMOSPHERE: A huge hole has opened in the sun's atmosphere, and it spewing a stream of solar wind directly toward Earth. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed the structure, which stretches almost 800,00 km along its long axis:


    SpaceWeather updates - Page 11 Ch_strip


    This is a coronal hole--a region in the sun's atmosphere where magnetic fields have opened up, allowing solar wind to escape. The hole looks dark because hot glowing gas normally contained there is missing. The gaseous material is on its way to Earth.

    The solar wind is due to arrive Dec. 4th or 5th. Together with a glancing-blow CME, also en route, it could spark G1 (Minor) to G2-class (Moderate) geomagnetic storms.


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Tue Dec 05, 2023 8:24 am

    UPDATED GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G1): NOAA forecasters have downgraded the current geomagnetic storm watch from G2 (Moderate) to G1 (Minor). This is in response to the weaker-than-expected impact of solar wind flowing from a huge coronal hole. High-latitude sky watchers should nevertheless remain alert for auroras on Dec. 5th. A glancing-blow CME may yet provide a light show. Aurora alerts: SMS Text

    DAYTIME AURORAS OVER 'THE ISLAND OF POLAR BEARS': It's not easy to see auroras in the middle of the day when the sky is suffused with sunlight. Yet that is exactly what happened to Marjan Spijkers on Dec. 1st when she looked up at noon and saw the Northern Lights:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 11 Svalbard3_strip

    There's something else unusual about these auroras: They are caused by solar particles entering our atmosphere from the dayside of the magnetosphere. Most aurora watchers get only the nightside mix. Is there a difference? There are too few sightings to know. Daytime auroras are that rare.


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
    Carol
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    Post  Carol Wed Dec 06, 2023 6:19 pm


    Magnetic Pole Shift | Response to Dr. Cohen

    ==


    Solar Flares, Iceberg, Atmospheric River | S0 News Dec.6.2023

    ==


    Space Weather Lessons | Sunspots & Coronal Holes



    Mr Pool: "It's going to be biblical."
    THE SUN IS ABOUT TO SPLIT …


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    Post  Carol Sat Dec 09, 2023 10:47 am

    SOLAR FLARE AND RADIO BLACKOUT (UPDATED): Sunspot AR3511 erupted on Dec. 8th (2307 UT), producing an M5-class solar flare (movie) and a shortwave radio blackout over the South Pacific ocean (map). First-look images from SOHO coronagraphs suggest that the flare did *not* produce a significant CME despite the intensity of the explosion.

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 11 Impulsive-M5.4-solar-flare-december-8-2023

    Impulsive M5.4 solar flare erupts from Region 3511, multiple filament eruptions - December 9, 2023

    There were no radio signatures detected that would suggest a coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced. Even if it was, the location of the source region — close to the Sun’s western limb — does not favor Earth-directed CMEs.

    This was the largest event in 24 hours to 00:30 UTC on December 9.

    Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over the Pacific Ocean at the time of the flare.

    Regions 3511 and 3513 (N19E27, Eai/beta-gamma) were responsible for the bulk of the C-class flare activity observed during this period. Slight decay was observed in the trailing spots of Regions 3507 (N07W53, Cso/beta), 3510 (S15W48, Hax/alpha), and 3513. Slight growth occurred in the leader spots of Region 3511.

    Additionally, two new spots rotated onto the SE limb and were numbered 3515 (S15E74, Hax/alpha) and 3516 (S19E74, Hsx/alpha).

    During the same period, several filament eruptions were recorded. The first was a 40-degree filament near N40E50 that started at 01:00 UTC on December 8. Its associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), observed off the northwest limb at 04:28 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery, is not expected to impact Earth.

    Another filament eruption near S20E05 occurred at 05:07 UTC, but no discernible CME was observed in coronagraph imagery. An asymmetric halo CME observed at 16:24 UTC was determined to be backsided, indicating no Earth-directed threat.

    Furthermore, the CME emanating from the southwest limb at 21:24 UTC on December 7, linked to a large prominence eruption at 19:36 UTC on the same day, was analyzed and deemed not to have an Earth-directed component.

    Solar activity over the next three days is expected to be low, with a 40% chance for M-class flares.

    Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a notable peak flux of 1 400 pfu observed at 15:20 UTC on December 8. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels during this period.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is forecasted to be at moderate to high levels on December 9 and 10, influenced by the coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). On December 11, moderate electron flux levels are expected. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is anticipated to persist at background levels from December 9 through 11.

    Solar wind parameters continued to decline over the period. The solar wind speed decreased from about 485 km/s to nearly 425 km/s. The total field ranged from 1 to 4 nT, with the Bz component oscillating between +/-3 nT. The Phi angle was predominantly negative.

    Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at or near nominal levels on December 9 and 10. A weak enhancement is likely on December 11, attributed to the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.

    The geomagnetic field was quiet and is expected to remain mostly quiet on December 9 and 10. On December 11, quiet to unsettled levels are expected, likely due to CH HSS activity.

    References:

    1 Forecast Discussion – Issued: 2023 Dec 09 0030 UTC – Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

    https://watchers.news/2023/12/09/impulsive-m5-4-solar-flare-erupts-from-region-3511-multiple-filament-eruptions/

    EXTREMELY RARE OCCULTATION OF BETELGEUSE: For years, astronomers have worried that Betelgeuse might explode. Instead, it's about to disappear. On Dec. 11th (USA) and 12th (Europe), main belt asteroid Leona will pass directly in front of Betelgeuse, a first-magnitude star in the shoulder of Orion. Millions of people in a narrow path stretching from South Florida to Italy and Greece can look up and see the red giant dim or even vanish.


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    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
    Carol
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    Post  Carol Thu Dec 14, 2023 8:43 pm

    Major X2.8 solar flare erupts from Region 3514
    Thursday, December 14, 2023

    https://watchers.news/2023/12/14/major-x2-8-solar-flare-erupts-from-region-3514/

    ==

    GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on Dec. 15th and 16th in response to an incoming solar wind stream with a stealthy CME embedded in it. Storm levels could escalate to category G2 (Moderate) or G3 (Strong) on Dec. 17th if yesterday's X2.8-class solar flare also hurled a CME in our direction. Stay tuned for updates in this forecast.CME alerts: SMS Text

    (UPDATED) STRONGEST FLARE OF THE CURRENT SOLAR CYCLE: Sunspot 3514 erupted on Dec. 14th (1702 UT), producing a strong X2.8-class solar flare. This is the strongest flare of Solar Cycle 25 (so far) and the most powerful eruption the sun has produced since the great storms of Sept. 2017. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:

    Radiation from the flare has caused a deep shortwave radio blackout over the Americas: blackout map. Ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal at all frequencies below 30 MHz for more than 30 minutes after the flare.

    This explosion probably launched a fast-moving coronal mass ejection (CME) Soon after the blast, the US Air Force is reported a Type II solar radio burst, which typically comes from the leading edge of a CME. Based on the drift rate of the radio burst, the CME's velocity could exceed 2100 km/s (4.7 million mph).

    Confirmation: Low-resolution images from NASA's STEREO-A spacecraft show a CME apparently with an Earth-directed component:

    We are still awaiting higher-quality data from SOHO to firm up the details. Solar flare alerts:


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    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
    Carol
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    Post  Carol Sun Dec 17, 2023 8:46 am

    WAITING FOR THE SOLAR STORM: A CME expected to hit Earth on Dec. 16th has not yet arrived, but NOAA forecasters believe it is still coming. The storm cloud was hurled in our direction by last Thursday's X2.8-class solar flare. An overdue impact on Dec. 17th could cause G1 (Minor) to G2-class (Moderate) geomagnetic storms with auroras across northern-tier US states.

    THIS IS WHAT A RADIO BLACKOUT SOUNDS LIKE: On Dec. 14th, the sun silenced radio transmissions on Earth. An X2.8-class solar flare (the strongest flare of the current solar cycle, so far) ionized the top of our atmosphere, disrupting shortwave transmissions across the Americas. In rural New Mexico, amateur radio astronomer Thomas Ashcraft recorded the blackout:

    "As my dynamic spectrum shows, all terrestrial shortwave radio transmissions coming into New Mexico faded for 10 to 15 minutes after the flare," says Ashcraft. "The blackout affected all frequencies below 30 MHz."

    The blackout was not completely silent, however. Minutes after it began, the sun filled the quietude with a roar of static. It was a Type II solar radio burst caused by shock waves in the leading edge of a CME emerging from the blast site.

    "The shock wave packed a punch!" says Ashcraft. "You can hear what it sounded like in this 90 second audio file."
    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/16dec23/AshcraftX2Dec142023_22.21MHZTypeIISW_01.mp3


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9iAtO_QRUI
    Solar Wind Impacts Begin, Health Impacts, Zuck is Prepping | S0 News Dec.17.2023
    ==


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RlRrzINrUA
    The Biggest Solar Flares (SDO & SOHO) - 12/16/23
    ==


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mFMjrEYNI0s
    Solar Storm Tonight, Dark Electromagnetism | S0 News Dec.16, 2023 -


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Sun Dec 17, 2023 9:26 am

    Dutchsinse Earthquake Updates

    Large X-class and multiple upper M-class solar flares.  Things might start to get seismically busy again within a few days.
    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

    Has anyone ever seen black forecast on the back side of Earth from the Sun from a Solar storm set to hit?

    Check it out ... December 17 2023 at 400utc (projected time of this occurring tomorrow - later today international time already the 17th)

    Earth is the green dot:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 11 Latest
    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Sun Dec 24, 2023 7:33 am

    LARGE FARSIDE SUNSPOT: There is a sunspot on the farside of the sun so large it is affecting the way the whole sun vibrates. Helioseismologists have pinpointed its echo, right here. The active region is about one week from rotating onto the Earthside of the sun. Meanwhile, stay tuned for some impressive farside halo CMEs.

    RECORD-COLD WEATHER IN THE STRATOSPHERE: Now we know why polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) have suddenly exploded. According to NASA's MERRA-2 climate model, temperatures in the Arctic stratosphere just hit a 40-year record low for the month of December:


    SpaceWeather updates - Page 11 Recordlow_strip


    Cold air in the stratosphere is exactly what PSCs require. Normally, the stratosphere has no clouds at all. But when the temperature drops to a staggeringly-low -85 C, widely-spaced water molecules coalesce into ice crystals and PSCs begin to form. Their aurora-like colors make them the most beautiful clouds on Earth.

    PSCs are normally confined to the Arctic where the stratosphere is coldest. During this week's extreme cold wave, the clouds descended all the way to mid-latitudes. Here they are over Locarno,Switzerland (+46N):


    SpaceWeather updates - Page 11 Switzerland_strip


    "I saw these clouds for the first time on Dec. 22nd," says photographer Branca Cristina. "The colors were amazing!"

    At the same time, the clouds were sighted in Torun, Italy (+45N); the next morning they appeared again in Lausanne, Switzerland (+47N). These are extraordinary excursions from normal PSC habitat.

    The season for PSCs usually starts in January. The current cold wave has given the season an early start, and could herald many more clouds in the weeks to come. To help sky watchers catch these rare clouds, we will henceforth publish daily predictions of temperatures in the Arctic stratosphere. When the air is cold,



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    What is life?
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    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Sun Dec 24, 2023 7:43 am


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cvPo08JEeFk
    Lost Civilization, Filament Destabilizing | S0 News Dec.24.2023
    ==


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cVAwXer8ejw
    Important Notes | X Flares, Magnetic Pole Shift
    ==


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_Wy1DKLPTw
    US Government Plan, Galactic Current Sheet | S0 News Dec.23.2023


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Tue Dec 26, 2023 3:51 pm

    MINOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on Dec. 27th when multiple CMEs launched two days ago might graze Earth's magnetic field. Misses are equally likely as hits, so this is a low-confidence forecast. CME impact alerts: SMS Text

    A SUNSPOT BIG ENOUGH TO SEE FROM MARS: Every day, NASA's Mars Perseverence rover looks at the sun to check the air for dust. It just saw a large sunspot:

    Perseverance's images of the sun come from its MASTCAM (stereo mast camera), which puts about 90 pixels across the solar disk. It takes a large sunspot to show up in these low-resolution images. Today's sunspot is a behemoth, measuring at least 200,000 km from end to end.

    Because Mars is orbiting over the farside of the sun, Perseverance can see approaching sunspots more than a week before we do. Consider this your 1-week warning: A really big sunspot is coming.

    Cosmic Rays Solar Cycle 25 is intensifying, and this is reflected in the number of cosmic rays entering Earth's atmosphere. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth are slowly declining--a result of the yin-yang relationship between the solar cycle and cosmic rays.
    ==


    Solar Eruptions, Earthquake Forcing, Science Problem | S0 News Dec.25.2023
    ==


    Big Coronal Hole, Pre-Earthquake Signals | S0 News Dec.26.2023


    _________________
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    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Wed Dec 27, 2023 9:33 am

    MINOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on Dec. 27th when multiple CMEs launched two days ago might graze Earth's magnetic field. Misses are equally likely as hits, so this is a low-confidence forecast. CME impact alerts: SMS Text

    WIDESPREAD POLAR STRATOSPHERIC CLOUDS: Last week, Dec. 17th-24th, temperatures in the Arctic stratosphere dipped to a 40-year low. The result was a widespread outburst of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). Normally confined inside the Arctic circle, the aurora-like clouds descended all the way to Italy and the south of France:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 11 Pscmap_strip

    Spaceweather.com reader Jamie McBean created this map of sightings drawing on a variety of sources: "I used the SpaceWeather Photo Gallery, Twitter, Facebook and other forums such as Netweather for the UK and 3B Meteo for most of the sightings from Italy," says McBean.

    " I've almost certainly missed out on some locations as I can't have scoured *everything,*" says McBean. "For example, you can see that with big gaps in Germany. Cloud cover has been pretty extensive in NW Europe recently, so I am sure more locations would have seen these amazing clouds if not."

    The outburst is over--for now. PSCs typically appear two or three times every winter in response to cold waves in the stratosphere. If this first apparition is a sign of outbursts to come, we could be in for a great season.
    ==


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Fri Dec 29, 2023 1:20 pm


    They Demand Sacrifice, Magnetic Field Signal,
    Filament Destabilizing | S0 News Dec.29.2023

    ==


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rx6c_LgWCSc
    Forecasting the Fate of a Filament - Dec.28.2023
    ==


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6Z2O7o2dUU
    Sun, Earthquake, Magnetic Field Biology
    | S0 News Dec.28.2023


    _________________
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    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Sat Dec 30, 2023 5:43 pm

    GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G1): 2024 could begin with a geomagnetic storm. NOAA forecasters say that G1-class storms are possible on Jan. 1st when a co-rotating interaction regioon (CIR) is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. CIRs are transition zones between fast- and slow-moving solar wind streams. They contain CME-like shock waves that do a good job sparking auroras. Aurora alerts: SMS Text

    DESERT ICE HALOS: You don't have to travel to the Arctic Circle to find ice in the air. Arizona has it, too. Yesterday, Scott Tucker looked up from the desert outside Tucson and saw multiple ice halos around the sun:


    SpaceWeather updates - Page 11 Desertice_strip


    "The heck with freezing in Scandinavia," says Tucker. "I can get a nice halo display here in Arizona when the temperature is 70 degrees."

    How can there be ice in the air when the temperature is so far above freezing? Actually, cirrus clouds floating over the warm desert are freezing. Kilometers above the desert floor, millions of ice crystals caught the rays of Arizona's winter sun, producing a 22-degree halo, a pair of sundogs https://old.atoptics.co.uk/halo/dogfm.htm, and a "rainbow-smile" circumzenithal arc. https://old.atoptics.co.uk/halo/cza.htm

    ==


    Top 5 Pole Shift News


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol

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    Post  Carol Mon Jan 01, 2024 8:08 am


    X5 Solar Flare - Long Duratiom

    Major X5.0 solar flare erupts from Region 3536 — the strongest flare of Solar Cycle 25 - January 1, 2024
    https://watchers.news/2024/01/01/major-x5-0-solar-flare-erupts-from-region-3536-the-strongest-flare-of-solar-cycle-25/
    ==

    6 GRBs (Gamma Ray Bursts) in the last week
    https://gcn.gsfc.nasa.gov/swift_grbs.html

    I've watched/tracked them on and off for years. I have no idea how to read the intensity of them, but I do think they have a huge impact on my miagraines vs the solar weather which symptoms manifest a little differently for me.

    These coupled with the solar flare from yesterday will lead to an interesting couple of weeks as the planet and our bio-electrical systems work to integrate higher levels of particles incoming!
    ==

    THIS WAS POSTED ON NOVEMBER 13, 2023 Fortunately the quake was only 7.6, not a 10. However, this is a wait and see warning of what may be ahead.



    Culebra Event Fast Approaching -
    Major Global Quake Event Predicted (10.5 Japan).
    Beginning of Sorrows


    His predictions of foreshocks are coming true.

    Take this seriously. 9 major earthquakes may occur before rupture around the planet, 10s of thousands of kilometers. Rupture will run around the Pacific. World Wide Earthquakes.

    Canadian-earthquake-researcher
    @mxdondevivo

    "I have a very bold outlook on what I expect to happen with earthquakes in Japan. The plates are so tightly stuck with this being the middle of a huge blockage, I have fully determined earthquakes are in a total slowdown around Japan and it will stay quiet until the Culebra Event."
    https://twitter.com/_/status/1723142358080819362

    One of the predicted foreshocks just occurred
    M 6.1 - 135 km WNW of Rabaul, Papua New Guinea
    2023-11-13
    https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000lali/executive


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    Post  Carol Mon Jan 01, 2024 12:55 pm


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oSbaWHYxgTY
    X5 Solar Flare, Big Earthquake Japan, Top Stories | S0 News Jan.1.2024


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    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

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    Post  Carol Wed Jan 03, 2024 10:16 am


    Polar Radiation, Strange Clouds, SkyScholar | S0 News Jan.3.2024
    ==



    GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH--CANCELED: A CME expected to graze Earth's magnetic field on Jan. 2nd has either missed or it is approaching more slowly than expected. Either way, a geomagnetic storm is now unlikely. The CME was hurled into space by the strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25, an X5-class explosion on New Year's Eve. If Earth had been directly in the line of fire, we might now be experiencing strong-to-severe geomagnetic storms. CME impact alerts: SMS Text

    STRANGELY-MAGNETIZED SUNSPOT: There's something strange about sunspot AR3536. Its magnetic field is cockeyed. This magnetic map from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows what we mean:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 11 Latest_4096_HMIBC_lab_strip

    All sunspots have two magnetic poles, plus (+) and minus (-). They're supposed to be oriented side-by-side, like this: . Instead, the magnetic field of AR3536 is perpendicular to normal: . This twist may explain why the sunspot is so active. Twisted magnetic fields harbor extra energy for solar flares. In the past 2 days, AR3636 has unleashed four M-class flares and an X5-class flare that ranks as the most powerful explosion of Solar Cycle 25 (so far).

    If this strange magnetization persists, more flares may be in the offing. Stay tuned! Solar flare alerts: SMS Text

    THE FIRST AURORAS OF THE YEAR: On Jan. 1st, a crack opened in Earth's magnetic field. Solar wind poured through the gap and fueled the first auroras of 2024. Northern lights tour guide Chris Percival photographed the display over Vesterålen, Norway:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 11 Firstauroras_strip

    "Our guests had a fantastic display here tonight in Arctic Norway," says Percival. "Shortly after the Moon rose and lit up the landscape, the aurora borealis decided to make a powerful appearance."

    The "crack" was formed by the impact of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR). CIRs are transition zones between fast- and slow-moving streams of solar wind. They contain CME-like shocks that open cracks and spark strong Arctic auroras.


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Tue Jan 16, 2024 11:39 am

    INEFFECTUAL SUNSPOTS: Solar activity remains low depite a relatively large number of sunspots. For the past five days, more than a dozen sunspot groups have failed to produce anything stronger than a minor C-class solar flare. All of today's sunspots have stable magnetic fields, so the situation is unlikely to change on Jan. 16th.

    WHAT ARCTIC AIR DOES TO THE SUN: This week, the polar vortex spilled into the USA, blanketing the midwest with air as cold as -20°F. This is changing the way the sun looks. Michael Lash sends this picture from Humboldt, Iowa:



    "We got a great view of sundogs and a 22-degree halo here in north central Iowa," says Lash. "The high temperature was -9°F."

    Lash's photo also captured a parhelic circle with a hint of an upper tangent arc. The sun itself has a diamond shape, no longer circular. All of these phenomena are caused by ice crystals floating in the misplaced Arctic air.

    If you live in the area, and dare to go outside, look up at the sun. It may not be as you expect.


    Solar Storm Heart Connection, Albedo, Sunspots | S0 News Jan.16.2024 Earth's magnetic field is weakening.
    ==


    Sun Targets Mercury, Volcano, High Risk Area, Isotope Fiasco | S0 News Jan.15.2024 The halting of the Chandler Wobble. New Zealand will be one of the first places that will go down in a solar blackout.
    ==


    This Storm Continues to Cause Big Disruptions


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    What is life?
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    Post  Carol Wed Jan 24, 2024 8:32 pm

    GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G1): NOAA forecasters say there is a chance of minor G1-class geomagnetic storms for the next 3 days. This is in response to multiple CMEs expelled by the sun, some of them approximately aimed at Earth. Glancing blows could disturb our planet's magnetic field on Jan. 24th, 25th and 26th.

    HYPERACTIVE SUNSPOT: The sun is crackling with solar flares, and almost all of them are coming from hyperactive sunspot AR3561. There have been more than a dozen M-class eruptions in the past day and a half:

    The profusion of flares since the late hours of Jan. 22nd directly tracks the rapid growth of AR3561, which didn't exist when the week began. It is now a sprawling sunspot group 100,000 km wide with more than 20 dark cores. It has a mixed-polarity magnetic field that makes it naturally prone to frequent eruptions.

    NOAA forecasters estimate a 75% chance of more M-class flares on Jan. 24th. Make that 100%. We've already observed two. How many will there be when the day is over?
    ==


    When Will a Sunspot Flare? | Space Weather Lesson
    ==


    Solar Watch, Earthquake Watch, Compound Disasters | S0 News Jan.24.2024
    ==


    The Earth Will Turn Over | POLE SHIFT


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    Post  Carol Fri Jan 26, 2024 8:26 am


    Dazzling shot of full wolf moon setting behind the Colorado Rocky Mountains. The first full moon of 2024 will shine bright in the sky this week.

    January's full moon, also known as the wolf moon, will reach its peak at 12:54 p.m. Eastern on Thursday afternoon, Jan. 25, according to NASA. The space agency explains that the moon will appear full in the sky for about 3 days, from early Wednesday through early Friday morning.

    January's full moon is nicknamed the wolf moon because in some parts of the world wolves are active in January and howl on cold nights, EarthSky explains. Other names for January's full moon reference the winter cold, such as the ice moon and the cold moon.
    ==


    Coronal Holes, Solar Forcing, Land Lifted | S0 News Jan.26.2024

    GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH--CANCELED: Although the official NOAA forecast still calls for a G1-class geomagnetic storm today, the odds of such a storm are rapidly declining. A veritable blizzard of CMEs expelled by the sun earlier this week appears to have been 100% off target. There's still a slight chance of a tardy CME strking Earth on Jan. 26th; if so, NOAA forecasters will be proved correct. CME impact alerts: SMS Text

    THE STRATOSPHERE IS GETTING COLD AGAIN: Yesterday in Europe, sky watchers in several countries saw colorful forms in the sky strongly resembling Type II polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). For example, these iridescent bands appeared over Slovenia:

    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2024/26jan24/psc_slovenia_strip.jpg

    "I saw them at sunset over the Planina disappearing lake, and thought they might be PSCs," says photographer Giorgio Rizzarelli. "The colors were unusual." Similar displays were seen in Switzerland and Italy.

    Normally the stratosphere has no clouds at all. But on rare occasions when the temperature drops to a staggeringly low -85 C, widely-spaced water molecules in the stratosphere coelesce to form icy clouds. Because of their vivid iridescent colors, PSCs are considered to be the most beautiful clouds on Earth.

    Is the stratosphere actually cold enough to make these clouds? Maybe. NASA's MERRA2 climate model suggests that the north polar stratosphere has indeed been cooling this week. However, according to the model, it's still a few degrees to warm for the icy clouds to form.

    Sky watchers may be seeing something else. There is another type of PSC made of nitric and sulphuric acids: Type I PSCs form at a slightly warmer temperature (-78 C) and, while colorful, are not as beautiful as the colder Type II PSCs. Or--here's a completely different alternative--this might be an episode of unusually intense iridescence in the troposphere.


    _________________
    What is life?
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    Post  Carol Tue Feb 06, 2024 7:56 am


    Solar Flare and CME, Eruption Watch, Galactic Fields | S0 News Feb.6.2024

    ANOTHER CME HAS MISSED EARTH: A potentially storm-causing CME missed Earth yesterday. It's the second time this month this has happened (Feb. 1st and 5th). Eventually one will hit. In fact, another CME may be on the way.

    SOLAR FLARE AND CME: Unstable sunspot AR3575 erupted on Feb. 6th (0330 UT), producing a strong M4-class solar flare. A hot plume of plasma lept away from the blast site faster than 400 km/s (900,000 mph):

    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2024/06feb24/m6_red_anim_crop.gif

    That plume ripped through the sun's atmosphere and created a CME. We haven't seen it yet in SOHO coronagraphs, but it's there. Moments after the flare, the US Air Force reported a Type II radio burst caused by shock waves in the leading edge of an unseen CME. Will it hit Earth? Fresh data from SOHO coronagraphs in the hours ahead will allow forecasters to start making models of the CME's trajectory.

    A flash of extreme ultraviolet radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a shortwave radio blackout over Australia:

    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2024/06feb24/blackoutmap_strip.jpg

    Ham radio operators and mariners in the area may have noticed loss of signal at frequencies below 30 MHz for as much as an hour after the flare's peak.

    Sunspot AR3575 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for even stronger X-class solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% chance of such an explosion on Feb. 6th.


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    Post  Carol Wed Feb 07, 2024 8:53 am


    Full Halo CME | Eruption Analysis

    ==


    M5 Solar Flare, Category 6 Hurricanes, Major Snow | S0 News Feb.7.2024

    POSSIBLE GLANCING-BLOW CME: A CME that left the sun on Feb. 6th might graze Earth's magnetic field on Feb. 9th. If it does not, it will be the 3rd CME in a row that narrowly misses Earth. Third time's the charm? Even a glancing blow could cause a G1-class geomagnetic storm. CME impact alerts: SMS Text

    A "FULL HALO" EXPLOSION ON THE FARSIDE OF THE SUN: Yesterday, SOHO coronagraphs recorded a remarkable CME. It was a full halo event:

    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2024/06feb24/haloCME.gif

    "Full halo" means the CME completely surrounds the sun. For comparison, here's a CME that is not a full halo.

    When space weather forecasters see a halo CME, they always feel a frisson of excitement. Half of all halo CMEs are heading directly toward Earth--they are bulls-eyes likely to produce a geomagnetic storm. The other half are heading directly away from Earth. Either geometry can make a halo.

    This particular halo is heading away from Earth. It was propelled into space by an unseen explosion on the farside of the sun, diametrically opposite our planet. A NASA model of the CME shows it will hit the Parker Solar Probe before splitting in two near the orbit of Mars. No planet is in the line of fire. Maybe next time...


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    Post  Carol Thu Feb 08, 2024 7:27 am


    Micronova Outbursts, Magma Ascent, Space Weather | S0 News Feb.8.2024


    The Earth-Facing Solar Quiet | The Sun Seems Shy


    M5 Solar Flare, Category 6 Hurricanes, Major Snow | S0 News Feb.7.2024

    ==

    GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G1): Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on Feb. 9th when a CME is expected to pass close to Earth. The storm would require not just a near miss, but an actual glancing blow. The asymmetric shape of the CME suggests either outcome is possible, making this a coin-flip forecast. CME impact alerts: SMS Text

    THE MARTIAN SUNSPOT IS FACING EARTH: A sunspot so big it was seen last week as far away as Mars has now turned to face Earth. NASA's Perseverance rover photographed it from Jezero crater, and it has only grown bigger since then. Here's how AR3576 looked yesterday from Argentina:

    In fact, the sunspot is bigger than the picture suggests. There's even more of it visible in Poupeau's full frame image. From end to end, the sunspot group stretches more than 200,000 km with at least 4 dark cores larger than Earth. You can see it using ISO-approved eclipse glasses--no magnification required.

    AR3576 is big, yes, but of even greater interest is the sunspot's magnetic complexity. This magnetic map from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows a mixture of polarities in the sunspot's core:

    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2024/07feb24/latest_4096_HMIBC_lab_crop_strip.jpg

    In the circled region, positive and negative magnetic polarities are so closely-packed, you may need to look at this unlabeled map to see them clearly. Opposite polarities bumping together can cause explosive magnetic reconnection. Indeed, NOAA forecasters say this sunspot poses a threat for strong X-class solar flares--and Earth is directly in the line of fire.

    ==


    Lava destroys hot water pipes, leaving thousands in Keflavik without hot water, heating. 08.02.25


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    Post  Carol Sat Feb 10, 2024 8:16 am


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnKuqpriwEg
    Three Solar Eruptions, Galactic Core Risk, AMOC Collapse | S0 News


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uk8w-10H6FM
    X3.3 Solar Flare | Full Analysis & ForecastLevel - 2 proton storm


    Starlink Storm, Climate Goofs, Water World | S0 News Feb.9.2024

    ==

    25% CHANCE OF X-FLARES TODAY: Yesterday, the sun unleashed a powerful X3.4-class solar flare. NOAA forecasters say there is a 25% chance it could happen again today. The most likely source is big sunspot AR3576, which has an unstable delta-class magnetic field and is directly facing Earth. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text

    SOLAR RADIATION STORM IN PROGRESS: For the second day in a row, energetic protons from the sun are raining down on Earth. This is called a "solar radiation storm," and it is currently a category S2 event. A data-plot from NOAA's GOES-18 satellite shows how protons surged around our planet just after yesterday's X-class solar flare:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 11 Radiationstorm_strip

    The colored lines count the number of energetic protons streaming past GOES-18 en route to Earth. Green and blue are of special interest because they trace "hard protons" capable of upsetting spacecraft electronics, e.g., causing reboots of onboard computers. These particles can even reach all the way down to aviation altitudes, boosting dose rates for passengers and crews flying commercial planes over Earth's polar regions.

    We can actually *see* some of these protons. Take a look at this SOHO coronagraph movie of the sun hours after the flare:

    SpaceWeather updates - Page 11 Snow_opt

    The "snow" is this movie is caused by the radiation storm. Each speckle is a solar proton striking the spacecraft's digital camera. This is a good example of how radiation storms can temporarily interfere with orbital imaging systems.

    Another effect of the radiation storm is an ongoing blackout of shortwave radio transmissions around Earth's poles. This is called a "polar cap absorption event." Earth's magnetic field is guiding many of the incoming protons towards the poles, where they ionize the upper atmosphere; this, in turn, wipes out radio signals below 30 MHz. Many shortwave radios inside the Arctic Circle simply won't work until the radiation storm is over.


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol

      Current date/time is Mon Nov 04, 2024 2:58 pm