INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL PROGRESS REPORT - part 1

Goldman Sachs is doing something that would have been unthinkable before 2008

Investment-banking powerhouse Goldman Sachs Inc. is doing something that would have been unthinkable before the financial crisis.

The banker to the biggest companies around the world is offering online savings accounts to ordinary Americans with as little as $1 to deposit, as it moves to diversify its funding base and satisfy regulators.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is scheduled to review new rules on the amount of liquidity lenders are obliged to have on handat a meeting Tuesday. The net stable funding ratio will require all banks to reduce their reliance on short-term funding that can be volatile, in favor of more stable long-term funding that is more expensive. The new rules are part of a broader effort to prevent a repeat of the 2008 crisis.
 
In a sign that it is serious about attracting depositors, Goldman is offering a 1.05% annual interest rate on deposits, which is far higher than rates currently available at other big U.S. banks. It comes after its New York State–chartered bank, Goldman Sachs Bank USA, acquired about $16 billion of U.S. deposits from General Electric Co GE, -0.26% .

That deal gave Goldman GS, -1.00% about 145,000 retail depositors, and it will now work to expand that base, the Financial Times reported over the weekend. Stephen Scherr, Goldman’s chief strategy officer, reportedly told the FT that tapping regular retail clients gives it “a different avenue to use, with a different orientation and a different tenor.”

On the bank’s earnings conference call with analysts last week, Chief Financial Officer Harvey Schwartz said the move should be viewed as part of the bank’s liability-management strategy.

Goldman Sachs has traditionally funded GS Bank operations in the wholesale markets and by buying brokered deposits, large deposits that represent investment clients seeking strong returns.

“We always ... look to have a diversified funding base,” Schwartz said on the call, according to a FactSet transcript. “This is just an extra tool kit for us in the financing, and so we’ll view it over time.”

The new funds are also expected to support Mosaic, the bank’s online lending arm, which is projected to start originating loans later this year, according to the FT

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/story?guid=410ec4c2-0b04-11e6-bba4-78cedcde329c

Aussie Dollar Plunges As Inflation Slumps To Record Low

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/26/2016 - 23:53
Despite surging commodity prices in China - which must be real and represent demand growth and price increases, right? - Aussie core inflation slowed to the weakest on record as headline prices unexpectedly fell last quarter (CPI -0.2%). RBA Rate-cut odds tripled instantly sending AUD down over 1.2% (its biggest drop in 2 months). Perhaps, just perhaps, that collossal credit injection in Q1 via China did not make it into the AsiaPac economy after all and merely fueled a speculative frenzy in commodities that merely "looks" like a recovery?
The Reserve Bank of Australia looks at two core inflation measures -- trimmed mean and weighted median -- and Wednesday’s report showed:

• Trimmed mean CPI rose 0.2% QoQ vs. median forecast of 0.5%
  
• Weighted median CPI gained 0.1% QoQ vs. median forecast of 0.5%
  
• CPI fell 0.2%, first decline since final quarter of 2008 vs. median forecast 0.2% rise
  

This does not look like a recovering Chinese economy is helping...


 

Which drove traders to bet on a rate-cut...

• *RBA MAY RATE CUT ODDS RISE TO 40% FROM 14% YDAY, FUTURES SHOW
  

“A pre-emptive May cut is surely now a real possibility,” said Gareth Berry, a foreign-exchange and rates strategist in Singapore at Macquarie Bank Ltd. “At the latest, an August cut is now inevitable. That spells the end of this three-month old Australian dollar rebound, and the downtrend can now resume in earnest.”

 
“Whereas the RBA was previously thinking that low inflation would allow it to cut interest rates if demand faltered, it is now clear that low inflation itself is the problem,” said Paul Dales, chief economist for Australia and New Zealand at Capital Economics. “An inflation-targeting bank like the RBA can’t ignore such a big undershoot of underlying inflation.”
As Goldman notes,

We believe the RBA will now be forced to lower their inflation forecasts in the May Statement of Monetary Policy, not just due to the low CPI data for 1Q16 but also in response to the rise in the A$ through 2016 which will further challenge the RBA’s assessment that inflation will accelerate to well within the target band due to rising tradeable inflation. From our perspective the inflation data is key evidence that excess capacity exists in both product and labour markets and this is supported by private sector wages expanding at record lows and the recent erosion of surveyed measures of inflation expectations (see here). In concert with our analysis that the reported strength in GDP growth in 4Q15 overstates the underlying pulse of the domestic economy (see here) and evidence that economic activity is slowing in 2016 across a broad range of indicators (including investment intentions, retail sales, finance approvals, tourist arrivals, housing turnover, consumer confidence).
 
Moreover, the RBA clearly established the criteria required for them to act upon their easing bias; weak inflation, slowing employment growth and a currency at a level that challenges the RBA assumptions of future economic growth. On all three criteria the evidence supports the case to ease policy in May. Should the RBA choose to remain on hold in May the RBA will be more than aware that the calendar quickly becomes crowded by a likely election campaign through May to early July (the RBA’s July meeting is just 3 days post the likely date of the federal election) and the leadership transition at the RBA scheduled for September. History has shown that since 1990 the RBA has not been overly influenced by political and leadership events. The RBA has eased on 3 occasions and hiked once in the month of or the month prior to a federal election and Governor Stevens continued a tightening cycle soon after his appointment to Governor. Nevertheless, it would seem lmore likely that the next widow for the RBA would be late in 2016.
 
While it is still possible that the RBA holds out hope that the rally in commodity prices might continue and that the US Federal Reserve turns significantly more hawkish, we continue to believe that the course of least regret is for the RBA to follow its inflation targeting framework and ease in May, where we continue to forecast a 25bp reduction. Nevertheless, following the firming of the possibility of an early federal election in July we have decided to move our final forecast rate cut to November 2016 (previously July). Our A$ forecast is under review.

*  *  *
Makes one wonder if any of this bounce in Chinese industrial metals is real at all...

 
Charts: Bloomberg
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-26/aussie-dollar-plunges-inflation-slumps-record-low

U.S. Commodity Regulator Was Unaware About Deutsche Bank's Gold-Rigging Until Ten Days Later

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/26/2016 - 20:53

It was not until Friday, April 22, over a week after the Deutsche Bank gold rigging settlement news broke, that the CFTC's press office admitted what many had speculated, when he said he was unaware of the Deutsche Bank story and could find no reference to it in the commission's compendium of news reports of interest to the commission's work. And this, ladies and gentlemen, is the "US commodity" regulator hard at work.
It was then that we also reminded readers that the US commodity "regulator", the CFTC in 2013 closed its five year investigation concerning allegations that the biggest bullion banks manipulate silver markets and prices.  It proudly reported in September 2013 that it found no evidence of wrongdoing and dropped the probe. This is what it said:

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC or Commission) Division of Enforcement has closed the investigation that was publicly confirmed in September 2008 concerning silver markets. The Division of Enforcement is not recommending charges to the Commission in that investigation. For law enforcement and confidentiality reasons, the CFTC only rarely comments publicly on whether it has opened or closed any particular investigation. Nonetheless, given that this particular investigation was confirmed in September 2008, the CFTC deemed it appropriate to inform the public that the investigation is no longer ongoing. Based upon the law and evidence as they exist at this time, there is not a viable basis to bring an enforcement action with respect to any firm or its employees related to our investigation of silver markets.

We concluded by asking whether, in light of this confirmation that the CFTC's probe was "lacking" perhaps it was time for the so-called regulators who at the time was headed by ex-Goldmanite Gary Gensler (and assisted by "revolving door" expert and HFT lobby sellout Bart Chilton) to reopen its investigation?


Much to our surprise, we found that the CFTC not only was not planning on reopening its investigation, but that it had actually not heard about the settlement until nearly ten days later.
This is what Chris Powell, treasurer of the Gold Anti-Trust Committee, which has been crusading against precious metals manipulation for years, wrote:


CFTC didn't know of Deutsche's market-rigging settlement until asked by GATA
Since the CFTC has jurisdiction over the U.S. commodity futures markets and since the commission purported to have undertaken a five-year investigation of the silver market, closing it in September 2013 upon concluding that there was no cause for action –
http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr6709-13

-- it was natural to seek comment from the commission about the Deutsche Bank news.
So on Saturday, April 16, your secretary/treasurer e-mailed the commission's news media office as follows, providing the Internet link to the Bloomberg News report:


"Does the commission have any reaction to Deutsche Bank's admission to manipulating the gold and silver markets, as reported by Bloomberg News this week? Is the commission responding to Deutsche Bank's admission in any way? As you may recall, some years ago the commission reported that it had investigated the silver market and had found nothing improper. Is the commission reconsidering that conclusion?"


Receiving no response, on Tuesday, April 19, your secretary/treasurer sent by facsimile machine a letter to the office of the chairman of the CFTC, Tim Massad, reading: "As I am unable to get any acknowledgement from your commission's press office, could you answer my questions here? Does the commission have any reaction to Deutsche Bank's admission to manipulating the gold and silver markets, as reported by various news organizations last week? Is the commission responding to Deutsche Bank's admission in any way? As you may recall, some years ago the commission reported that it had investigated the silver market and had found nothing improper. Is the commission reconsidering that conclusion? Thanks for your help."


Having received no acknowledgment of that letter as well, yesterday – Friday, April 22 – your secretary/treasurer telephoned the CFTC's press office and within a half hour of leaving a message received a cordial call back from an assistant to the director. He said he was unaware of the Deutsche Bank story and could find no reference to it in the commission's compendium of news reports of interest to the commission's work.


Your secretary/treasurer conceded that the story is being largely suppressed by Western financial news organizations and sent him the links to the Reuters and Bloomberg stories as well as a link to the original complaint in the class-action lawsuit. He said he would consult his superiors and hoped to reply to me next week.


Of course all this gives the impression that the CFTC not only doesn't know what's going on in its jurisdiction but also that it doesn't want to know. It is additional evidence that certain commodity market rigging is outside the commission's concern because the U.S. government and other governments are the actual perpetrators, surreptitious market rigging by the government being specifically authorized by the Gold Exchange Act of 1934 as amended in the 1970s –


https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/international/ESF/Pages/esf-ind...
-- and because of the admission in recent official filings by CME Group, operator of the major U.S. futures exchanges, that it provides volume trading discounts to governments and central banks for surreptitiously trading all futures contracts on its exchanges:


http://www.gata.org/node/14385
http://www.gata.org/node/14411

All this also seems to confirm that the prerequisites of this market rigging are the cowardice of the monetary metals mining industry, which refuses to protest it, and the cowardice of mainstream financial news organizations, which refuse to report it.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-26/us-commodity-regulator-was-unaware-about-deutsche-banks-gold-rigging-until-ten-days-

Stories Of Despair From The Forgotten People That The U.S. Economy Has Left Behind

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/26/2016 - 19:00
There really are “two Americas” in 2016, and they are getting farther and farther apart with each passing year.  On the one hand, you have lots of people smiling in New York City these days because of the stock market boom, and property values have soared to ridiculous levels in San Francisco because of the tech bubble.  But in between the two coasts there are vast stretches of forgotten people that the U.S. economy has left behind. 
In many areas of the nation today, it is a real challenge to find a good job.  According to the Social Security Administration, 51 percent of all American workers make less than $30,000 a year at this point, and you can’t support a middle class family on $30,000 a year.  The American Dream feels like it has ended for millions upon millions of families, and this is leading to a lot of depression and despair.
I would like to share with you three comments that were recently left on a New York Times article about depression.  In all three instances, the commenters link their battle with depression with the economy in some way…

#1 But for me, I see another change that has affected me as I have entered the high risk age group. Over the years, as the economy dumps, as the businesses that have employed people in my region have cut staff, or just gone away, I have seen almost every friend that I have made in the last 30 years move away. My social network imploded.
 
For those who cannot easily recreate new sets of friendships, especially if they are un- or underemployed, and have fractured family relationships, there is little social support to help stave off depression. And for more and more people who are working, the push to work independently, not in an office atmosphere, creates even more isolation.
 
#2 I have been diagnosed and have been taking meds and in therapy for 30 years. And I was hanging in there until I lost everything. College educated, a professional for 30 years, I am now on Disability and Obamacare, both of which are on the chopping block. I watch the election process in terror and wonder what will happen to people like me. Medically I am bipolar, but now I am indigent, and if I can’t access health care or a place to live, I’m done. All the Prozac in the world won’t change that.
 
#3 I became disabled ten years ago in my mid-forties. I live alone and have no family and no friends. I miss my career so much, and having a social life. Being disabled means having less money than ever, but with greater medical costs that ever. I think of suicide quite a bit. I’m so lonely and poor. Then I got cancer a few years ago which is in remission but causing other health problem. I’m doing my best to continue to afford to keep my dog. She’s only 4 and could live another 14 years. I’m giving her the best life possible and I don’t want to leave her. She keeps me going and is the only love I have in my life. I wish there were more social service in the U.S. for people like me. If I ever “get better”, or win the lottery, I will be a fierce advocate to improve the quality of life for people like me who have fallen through the cracks. I’m living a life that is hell on earth. I can see why some people in similar situations choose to “opt out” when every day is painful and lonely.

Those that insist that “everything is going to be just fine” are ignoring millions of stories such as these.
There are so many Americans that are going through enormous suffering in quiet solitude, and because they aren’t marching in the streets they are forgotten about by the rest of us.
But of course not everyone suffers so quietly.  Sometimes desperate people do desperate things, and all over the nation we are seeing rates of violent crime start to rise.
And not every person that commits acts of violent crime is looking to hurt people.  Sometimes all they want is some food.  The following comes from Natural News…

According to a heartbreaking report by All Self Sustained, an elderly man was threatened with a knife last month by a man and a woman in a home invasion – the pair were looking to steal food.
 
71-year-old Luis Rosales answered the door of his New Jersey apartment in the afternoon and was confronted by a man and woman who were armed with an eight-inch kitchen knife. The pair forced themselves inside, threatening Rosales with death if he made too much noise.
 
The suspects used pepper spray to affect Rosales’ vision before ransacking his apartment and raiding his fridge, telling Rosales that they were hungry. They also took his wallet.

We are witnessing the slow-motion meltdown of society.
Even with the “recovery” we have supposedly experienced, 47 percent of all Americans could not even pay an unexpected $400 emergency room bill without borrowing the money from somewhere or selling something.
And things are not going to be getting any better for the economy moving forward.  The despair and desperation that we have seen so far are nothing compared to what is coming.
A tremendous amount of love and compassion is going to be required in the years ahead, because huge numbers of people are going to be really hurting.
So how will you respond when people all around you are in very deep trouble?
Will you “bunker up”, or will you be willing to reach out and help those less fortunate than yourself?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-26/stories-despair-forgotten-people-us-economy-has-left-behind

These Five Trends In China Will Change The Gold Market

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/26/2016 - 20:30
The gold market will soon be very different than from what we see today - largely due to the current developments in China. China’s influence will impact not just gold investors but everyone who has a vested interest in the global economy, stock markets, and the US dollar. After all, China will be a dominant force in all, as most analysts project. Here are the five trends in China that will change the gold market forever...

Trend #1: China now officially participates in the gold price fix

China has officially established a daily yuan price fix for gold.
Gold fixing was historically held at the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). China was not part of that process, so it started its own pricing benchmark.
The Shanghai Gold Exchange’s program includes 12 “fixing” members, 10 of which are Chinese banks. The new gold benchmark will better reflect local market flows and, just as important, reduces gold’s price dependency on the US dollar.
The program has profound implications as the gold trade continues to move from West to East. It will increase China’s influence over the gold price and expand the yuan’s role as a global currency.

Trend #2: China also participates in setting the silver price

China Construction Bank, one of the country’s largest, recently joined the elite group of banks that set silver’s official daily price.
The Chinese bank now bids prices with HSBC, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of Nova Scotia, Toronto Dominion Bank, and UBS. That means China now has direct influence on the price of this key industrial and monetary metal.
These two moves makes sense, since some of the world's top gold and silver consumers are in the East—India, Russia, Turkey, and of course China.
It is clear China wants more influence over gold and silver prices—and now it will get it.

Trend #3: The renminbi is in the IMF basket

Last November, the IMF added the renminbi to its reserve currency basket. The prestigious basket will include the yuan along with the dollar, euro, pound sterling, and yen when calculating the value of the Special Drawing Rights (SDRs).
The long-term implication is that the yuan may one day become as recognizable as the dollar or euro.
It also means China must accumulate enough bullion reserves to stand on the world stage. And by any measure, it doesn’t have enough.
Some analysts believe China has more than the official 1,797.5 tonnes it reported in March, but that amount is 4.5 times less than 8,133.5 tonnes the US holds. Even if China doesn’t want that much, the current total represents only 2.2% of its total reserves.
This means that not only does China need to continue buying gold in massive quantities, it will at some point need to announce it holds a much higher amount. And that announcement will light a fire under the gold price.
You may not trust the numbers coming out of Beijing, but keep in mind that China’s biggest goal is to become a first world economy. It wants to be on the same footing as the US, Japan, and Europe.
And one way to achieve that is to accumulate a lot more gold.

Trend #4: Chinese gold production is slowing

China produces more gold than any other nation.
 

 
But even the world’s top producer isn’t immune to the effects of the four-year bear market in gold. Mine production is slowing and is poised to decline for at least several years just like everywhere else.
That’s because the cost of production has risen, ore grades are falling, and reserves in the country are limited.
And get this: China doesn’t export gold in any meaningful amount. So whatever gets produced there, stays there.
Bottom line: China’s gold production won’t make it to world markets. Its output is in decline and won’t be available to meet global demand.

Trend #5: Lack of other alternatives for Chinese investors

This trend is explosive…
As hedge fund manager Dan Tapiero points out, Chinese investors will be increasingly attracted to gold because they won’t want their savings at a zero percent interest rate.
Yet, Beijing has made it clear that it will bring rates lower. So what will investors buy? Government debt yields just 1–2%. High-yield corporate debt pays more, but only 15% of Chinese debt is rated by foreign agencies like Moody’s and S&P, so it comes with a lot of potential credit risk. The stock market wiped out many investors, and real estate petered out.
UBS analysts agree:
Deterioration in China's macro backdrop could trigger flows towards gold; there are a limited number of investment alternatives and gold is poised to benefit should outlooks across the different options turn sour… rotation into gold ETFs would be a relatively easy switch for local equity investors and could gain further traction if equity markets continue to weaken.
That’s not all.
Chinese savers have huge exposure to a devaluation of their currency, as their wealth is tied directly to the fate of the renminbi. Devaluation fears have prompted massive capital outflows from both the currency and the country—some of which is fleeing into gold.
Looking at the big picture over the next 3-5 years—these changes signal that China will be a big driver of the gold price.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-26/these-5-trends-china-will-change-gold-market-forever

Venezuela Imposes 2 Day Work Week To Save Energy  
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/venezuela-energy-2-day-work-week_us_5720bb05e4b01a5ebde403ce

The IMF Proposes Global Wealth Confiscation

BY DAMON GELLER


As first reported by Forbes, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) dropped a bomb in its October Fiscal Monitor Report. The report paints a dire picture for high-debt nations that fail to aggressively “mobilize domestic revenue,” which is code for “aggressively tax its citizens.” It goes on to build a case for drastic measures and recommends a series of escalating income and consumption tax increases – culminating in the direct confiscation of assets. Why is the IMF proposing this? Because global governments and central banks pumped trillions of dollars of YOUR money into the banks and stock market over the last several years, catapulting public debts to tens of TRILLIONS of dollars. But now, governments and central banks can no longer sustain these debt levels, and global wealth confiscation is their only way to maintain the Ponzi scheme. So it’s more apparent than ever, if you want to keep your savings & retirement out of the hands of desperate governments, there’s only one thing you can do.

The Wolves Are Starving for Your Money

First, here is the excerpt where the IMF clearly advocates a tax on your private savings to pay down government debt:

The sharp deterioration of the public finances in many countries has revived interest in a “capital levy”—a one-off tax on private wealth—as an exceptional measure to restore debt sustainability… The tax rates needed to bring down public debt to pre-crisis levels are sizable. Reducing debt ratios to end-2007 levels would require a tax rate of about 10 percent on households with positive net wealth.

You read that right: the IMF wants to take 10% of your private savings in addition to the taxes you’re already paying. But is that only the beginning of the proposed wealth confiscation? The report’s most chilling aspect is the clinical manner in which it discusses how all governments can work together to track and tax your savings:

Financial wealth is mobile, and so, ultimately, are people. … There may be a case for taxing different forms of wealth differently according to their mobility… Substantial progress likely requires enhanced international cooperation to make it harder for the very well-off to evade taxation by placing funds elsewhere.

As Forbes points out, there are three key points to take away from this report:


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[*]IMF economists know there are not enough rich people to fund today’s governments even if 100 percent of the assets of the 1 percent were expropriated. That means that all households with positive net wealth—everyone with retirement savings or home equity—would have their assets plundered under the IMF’s formulation.
[*]Such a repudiation of private property will not pay off Western governments’ debts or fund budgets going forward. It will merely “restore debt sustainability,” allowing free-spending sovereigns to keep tapping the bond markets until the next crisis comes along—for which stronger measures will be required, of course.

[*]If politicians should fail to engage in this kind of wholesale robbery, the only alternative scenario the IMF posits is government bankruptcy and hyperinflation. The IMF makes no proposes to reign in the Ponzi-scheme entitlement programs that are bankrupting us.

[/list]


Forbes argues that this is where the bankruptcy of the modern entitlement state is taking us—capital controls and exit restrictions “so the proverbial four wolves and a lamb can vote on what’s for dinner.”

There’s Only One Place to Hide

With our desperate governments gaining unprecedented access to your personal savings anywhere in the world, you need to take action NOW to protect your savings & retirement from possible capital controls. But if the government has its hands in your bank accounts, retirement accounts and brokerage accounts, is any place safe?

Absolutely. There’s ONE asset class this sits outside the financial system and is completely secure from government confiscation and global economic collapse: Gold & Silver. Gold & Silver have been the best wealth protectors for over 5,000 years and have survived every government & currency collapse in history. Today, physical gold & silver are selling in record numbers around the world. Central banks around the world and nations like China are stockpiling gold as a hedge to any possible collapse of all the dollars they hold.


The government has spent way beyond its limits. And now you know that the government is seizing control of your financial accounts. So the time is now. Protect your savings & retirement with physical gold & silver before you have nothing left to protect.

https://www.wholesaledirectmetals.com/the-imf-proposes-global-wealth-confiscation/?cid=GoogleBanner&st-t=GoogleBanner&gclid=CMLAieyPsMwCFRRgfgodLQoMRw

Deutsche Bank Unveils The Next Step: "QE Has Run Its Course, It's Time To Tax Wealth"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/30/2016  


Helicopter money may be on the horizon, but if Deutsche Bank has its way, there is at least one intermediate step. 
According to DB's Dominic Konstam, now that the benefits QE "have run their course", it is time for the next, and far more drastic step: "the ECB and BoJ should move more strongly toward penalizing savings via negative retail deposit rates or perhaps wealth taxes. With this stick would also come a carrot – for example, negative mortgage rates."
Here is the big picture unveiling of what is coming next from Deutsche Bank's Dominic Konstam, who is also buying the Treasury long end hand over fist: 

• The G3 central banks all stood pat, continuing the move away from the beggar-thy-neighbor paradigm. However, the adverse market reaction to the BoJ’s inaction suggests that the benefits of QE (or QQE) in its present form might have run their course.
  
• It is becoming increasingly clear to us that the level of yields at which credit expansion in Europe and Japan will pick up in earnest is probably negative, and substantially so. Therefore, the ECB and BoJ should move more strongly toward penalizing savings via negative retail deposit rates or perhaps wealth taxes. With this stick would also come a carrot – for example, negative mortgage rates.
  
• Until then, bank NIM compression will continue to drive elevated demand for dollar-denominated assets, which manifests itself in suppressed UST term premia and wide cross-currency bases.
  
• What this means for the US is that policy rates and longer bond yields are unlikely to go up until global growth accelerates materially. Until such time, it is critical for the Fed to continue to relent, allowing real yields to keep falling while breakevens rise and nominal yields remain roughly static.
  
• If the Fed were to turn hawkish, there is perhaps even less scope for long-end yields to rise as breakevens would likely collapse on policy error fears.
  

Some of the troubling detail: 

QE as implemented in major economies since the crisis has operated through two shocks: a demand shock whereby real yields are forced lower through lower nominal yields and static – or even falling – breakevens, and a shock to inflation expectations, whereby real yields ultimately continue to fall but due to rising BEI and static to lower nominal yields. In the case of the Anglo-Saxon economies, the demand shock quickly gave way to the shock (higher) to inflation expectations and actually allowed nominal yields to rise, if fleetingly. 
 
The second shock, to inflation expectations, has thus far remained stubbornly elusive in Europe and more so in Japan, and ephemeral in the Anglo-Saxon economies. That said, this dynamic appears to have re-emerged in the US post Fed relent and has been an important driver of the recovery in risk assets and, more generally, the easing of financial conditions. 
 
This week’s BoJ announcement disappointed, and as a result the yen appreciated sharply. This outcome does not bode well for the future efficacy of QE, at least while that is the primary policy tool in use. Breakevens have been drifting lower and real yields have been drifting higher since last summer. In other words, financial conditions in Japan are tightening, suggesting the need for more stimulus. However, the BoJ already holds a significant proportion of the assets that would be available for purchase, and the gains from additional QE activity – higher breakevens, lower real yields, and a weaker yen – are likely on the margin to be fleeting. It appears that the markets doubt the BoJ’s willingness or ability to carry on with larger and broader asset purchases, or worse yet they do not believe that such asset purchases will have their desired stimulative effect 
 
Further QE should be viewed as an experiment in real time, where the point of inquiry is the level of real or nominal yields at which credit will begin to expand more strongly with loan-to-deposit ratios increasing. What seems increasingly clear to us is that this level is likely at negative yields, and probably substantially so. If this is true, it would suggest to us that the equilibrium level of rates in the economy is probably negative. This in turn would strongly suggest a significant re-think to short-rate policy. In this case, central banks should move more strongly toward penalizing savings, rather than just the institutions that “house” those savings – the banks. This would mean allowing significantly negative retail deposit rates or perhaps even wealth taxes. With this stick would also come a carrot – one example being that while deposit rates penalize savings (the whole point), banks might also pay borrowers to buy houses via negative mortgage rates. 

In short, the real central bank panic is about to be unleashed; who will suffer? Why everyone else. And should wealth taxes really be imminent, we foresee a lot of "boating incidents" in the immediate future.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-30/deutsche-bank-unveils-next-step-qe-has-run-its-course-its-time-tax-wealth

NORWAY'S SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUND, THE WORLD'S BIGGEST, POSTED A NEGATIVE RETURN IN THE FIRST QUARTER AFTER BEING TAPPED BY THE GOVERNMENT TO BALANCE ITS BUDGET FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER
Published: April 30, 2016
SOURCE: THE LOCAL


Norway's sovereign wealth fund, the world's biggest, posted a negative return in the first quarter after being tapped by the government to balance its budget for the first time ever.


The fund registered a negative return of 0.6 percent, or 85 billion kroner ($10.4 billion, 9.2 billion euros), putting its value at 7.07 trillion kroner ($867 billion, 753 billion euros) at the end of the quarter, the central bank said on Thursday.


Shares, which accounted for 59.8 percent of the fund's portfolio, and real estate, which represented 3.1 percent, dragged the fund down, posting negative returns of 2.9 and 1.3 percent respectively.
Bonds, which made up the remaining 37 percent, meanwhile rose by 3.3 percent.


"The two first months of 2016 were characterised by high market volatility and concerns for a Chinese slowdown. The turbulence eased considerably in March," Trond Grand, a senior central bank official, said in a statement.


In a sign that the country's best years may be behind it, Norway's government took more money out than it put in for the first time in the fund's 20-year existence, siphoning off 25 billion kroner to balance its budget.


The withdrawal aimed to compensate the state's declining oil revenues, caused by lower oil price.
The fund is intended to ensure future generations benefit from the welfare state after the country's oil wells run dry.


Saudi Arabia announced earlier this week it would set up a $2 trillion fund to end the country's dependence on oil by 2020, which would make it the world's biggest sovereign wealth fund when created.

Another "Conspiracy Theory" Confirmed: ECB Finds Widespread Trading On Leaked Inside Information

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/02/2016 - 10:21

ECB: "information of many macroeconomic announcements is known by some market participants in advance" 

Translation: the market was and remains rigged
Remember when it was merely another conspiracy theory that "some" traders "trade" (with zero risk) with the benefit of leaked material non-public information? As of moments ago it is merely the latest conspiracy fact, confirmed by none other than the ECB, which earlier today published a research paper which finds substantial "informed" trading before the official release in seven of 21 market-moving U.S. macroeconomic announcements. 
The paper has studied trading patterns from Jan. 2008 to March 2014 and finds that "prices begin to move in the ‘correct’ direction about 30 minutes before the release time. The pre-announcement price drift accounts on average for about half of the total price adjustment." 
Translation: chronic insider trading, which until recently was an allegation that the serious outlets would relentless mock as another conspiracy by tinfoil hat fringe websites.
The paper also finds "strong evidence of pre-announcement drift" in ahead of releases such as the Conference Board's consumer confidence index; NAR existing home and pending home sales; preliminary GDP; Federal Reserve’s industrial production (yes, even Fed data has been leaked repeatedly); ISM manufacturing and non- manufacturing indexes, and countless other examples.
While the ECB does not blame the entire "drift" on leaks of insider information, saying instead that "the evidence suggests that the pre-announcement drift likely comes from a combination of information leakage and superior forecasting" it is clear what the real culprit is for outperformance ahead of major data release, and - spoiler alert - it isn't "superior forecasting."
The paper also says that according to back-of-the-envelope calculations, since 2008 pre-release trading in S&P E-mini futures market profits amount to about $20 million per year.  Curiously, the ECB did not find evidence of "pre-announcement drift" in non-farm employment data. We doubt that especially since just this website has repeatedly caught BLS data being leaked in advance, an example of which we reported several years ago in "Bureau Of Labor Statistics Caught Red Handed Leaking Confidential Employment Data."
From the paper's non-technical summary:

Macroeconomic indicators play an important role in business cycle forecasting and are closely watched by financial markets. Some of these indicators appear to influence financial market prices even ahead of their social release time. This paper examines the prevalence of pre-announcement price drift in U.S. stock and bond markets and looks for possible explanations. 
 
We study the impact of announcements on second-by-second E-mini S&P 500 stock index and 10-year Treasury note futures from January 2008 to March 2014. The study is based on 21 market-moving announcements among a sample of 30 U.S. macroeconomic announcements. Eleven out of these 21 announcements exhibit some pre-announcement price drift in the \correct" direction, i.e., in the direction of the price change consistent with the announcement surprise. For seven of these announcements the drift is substantial. Prices start to move about 30 minutes before the ocial release time, and this pre-announcement price move accounts on average for about a half of the total price adjustment.  
 
These facts are uncovered by an outlier-robust procedure (MM weighted least squares), but are similarly striking in cumulative average return graphs and order  ow imbalances. 
 
The paper shows that these results are robust to controlling for, among others, outliers, data snooping, nearby announcements and the choice of the event window length. 
 
Extending the sample period back to 2003 with minute-by-minute data reveals both a higher announcement impact and a stronger pre-announcement drift since 2008, especially in the S&P E-mini futures market. Based on a back-of-the-envelope calculation, we estimate that since 2008 in the S&P E-mini futures market alone the prots associated with trading prior to the social announcement release time have amounted to about 20 million USD per year. 
 
The late start of pre-release price drift, which becomes signicant only about 30 minutes before the social release time, reveals an interesting property of prevalent trading strategies. Assuming that informed traders possess their informational advantage already more than 30 minutes ahead of the release, the question arises why they wait with trading on their knowledge until shortly before the release time. A possible explanation is that trading close to the release time minimizes the exposure to other risks that are unrelated to macroeconomic announcements. 
 
The difficulty of identifying the causes of pre-announcement drift stems from the relatively small number of announcements that actually move financial markets. Nevertheless, we find that an implementation of strict release procedures makes pre-release drift less likely. This applies in particular to data released under the Principal Federal Economic Indicator (PFEI) guidelines, which impose strict security procedures. There is no evidence that modifying the calculation of market expectations, e.g., a focus on the most recent survey responses, helps in predicting the commonly used announcement surprise. 
 
Public information, such as internet activity data, predicts the surprise in a few cases where the public information closely corresponds to the forecasting target. Analogously, improvements in data processing render privately collecting large amounts of comparable information feasible, which can be used for generating proprietary forecasts ahead of time. This early information -leaked or self-calculated- does not need to be precise in order to a have a large price impact. Under Bayesian learning, even if the information available before the ocial release is noisy, it can have a large price impact because of its timing. For a Bayesian learner, early availability makes up for less precision and a potentially smaller surprise. Thus, the incentives for privately collecting information and for leakage are high. 
 
The main policy implications of this paper are twofold. First, the total impact of macroeconomic news is larger than measured in most event studies, which ignore the pre-release price drift. Therefore, the total impact of macroeconomic news on financial markets is larger, and financial markets are linked more tightly to the real economy than usually found. Second, information of many macroeconomic announcements is known by some market participants in advance. To ensure fairness in financial markets, strict release procedures need to be implemented for all market-moving announcements including announcements originating in the private sector.

Translation: the entire market is rigged.
For those who have been accused for years of being insane in claiming precisely what the ECB just "confirmed", you can read the full paper here.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-02/another-conspiracy-theory-confirmed-ecb-finds-pervasive-trading-inside-information-a

"No End In Sight To Current Downturn" - US Manufacturing Plunges To Sept 2009 Lows

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/02/2016 - 10:04
Following April's flash PMI print plunge to cycle lows - blamed on the presidential election uncertainty - Markit's Final Manufacturing PMI printed 50.8 (as expected) its lowest since September 2009. New orders weakened further as the rate of job creation tumbles to thre-year lows. ISM Manufacturing fell back from its oddly decoupled bounce to July 2015 highs to a coincidental 50.8 (missing expectations of 51.4). As Markit concludes, apparently peddling fiction, "the April PMI data suggest there’s no end in sight to the current downturn in manufacturing activity...raising question marks over whether GDP growth will improve on the near-stalling seen in the first three months of the year."
Manufacturing PMI Headline output and employment data are ugly...

 
And following ISM's recent bounce, notably opposing Markit's survey, ISM reported Manufacturing fell back perfectly in line with Markit's PMI...

 
Breakdown shows 4 componenst in contraction...
[url=http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/05/01/ISM table April.jpg][/url]
Notably, despite the drop, all respondents 'cherry picked' by ISM were positive.
Howver, commenting on the final PMI data, Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit said:

“The April PMI data suggest there’s no end in sight to the current downturn in manufacturing activity. The survey indicates that factory output is dropping at an annualized rate of approximately 3%, and factory headcounts are being culled at a rate of around 10,000 per month.
 
“Destocking is also very much in evidence as companies often reported weaker than expected demand and exports are slumping at the fastest rate for one and a half years.
 
“Rather than reviving after a disappointingly weak first quarter, the data flow therefore appears to be worsening in the second quarter, raising question marks over whether GDP growth will improve on the near-stalling seen in the first three months of the year.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-02/no-end-sight-current-downturn-us-manufacturing-plunges-sept-2009-lows

Gold Surges To Jan 2015 Highs, Tops $1300 As Euro Hits 9-Month High

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/02/2016 - 08:18
A lack of intervention in the Yen and strength in EUR have combined to weigh on the US dollar (following the Treasury's "currency manipulator" report. Bloomberg's USD Index is back at one-year lows as, while overnight chaos sent stocks higher, it has driven investors into the safety of bonds (Treasury yields down 2-3bps) and precious metals. Gold topped $1300 and Silver $18 as EURUSD pushes above 1.1500...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-02/gold-surges-jan-2015-highs-tops-1300-dollar-extends-slide



~~~~~~~~~~~
The Best And Worst Performing Assets In April
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/02/2016 
Following what was one of the most volatile Q1’s on record, Q2 kick started the second quarter on a positive note in April. According to DB (whose stock has failed to meaningfully rebound from recent lows) while performance didn’t quite match those lofty gains made in March, in the face of a number of key central bank meetings and also the commencement of earnings season in the US and Europe – for which expectations were low – risk assets in particular have shown a reasonable degree of resilience on the whole.
According to DB's Jim Reid, traders would be hard pressed to find many assets which had a negative total return month. Looking across the asset  sample, its sovereign bond markets which were the standout underperformers with Treasuries, Bunds, Gilts, BTP’s and Spanish Bonds sitting in the 0% to -1% range. At the other end of the scale there is a clear theme and that’s the performance for commodity markets. 
Indeed despite the Kuwait Oil producers meeting ending in a blank, it was another strong month for both WTI (+20%) and Brent (+16%) which resulted in both marching to the highest level this year. Silver (+16%) and Corn (+11%) were the other big performers in the commodity complex this month. In fact, the commodity market index rounds off the top 5 with an +8% return during the month. Brazilian equities (+8%) get another honourable mention this month with markets reacting positively to the latest political developments there, while it won’t be much of a surprise to see the Yen (+6%) also creep into the top ten following the BoJ disappointment at the end of the month. 
In terms of equity markets, European banks (+6%) were the standout performer despite a weak last day of the month, although the sector is still well down on a YTD basis. European equities (+2%) had a reasonably solid performance on the whole, with Spanish (+4%) and Italian (+3%) markets leading the charge. Across the pond the S&P 500 (+0.4%) just stayed in positive territory, although the post-BoJ reaction saw the Nikkei (-1%) underperform. Credit market performance was decent especially given the moves in rates markets. Higher beta credit indices were the outperformers with EUR and US HY in particular finishing +2% and +3% respectively – the latter clearly benefiting from the move in Oil. EUR IG indices were also in positive territory with the announcement of the details around corporate bond purchases giving the asset class a positive boost. 
[url=http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/04/20/April local.jpg][/url]
If we look at returns on a USD basis only, the standout mover is the Nikkei which, when stripping out the rally in the Yen, jumps into the top ten with a +5% return.
[url=http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/04/20/April USD.jpg][/url]
 
Finally, on a YTD basis for USD-denominated assets, here are the best and worst performers.
[url=http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/04/20/YTD USD.jpg][/url]
Source: DB
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-02/best-and-worst-performing-assets-april

Deutsche Bank Has Systemic Money Laundering, Terrorist Financing And Sanctions Problems: UK Regulator
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/01/2016 20:01 -0400


Just two days after Deutsche Bank fired the head of its "integrity committee", Georg Thoma who had been originally tasked with clearing up the bank's past scandals, because according to DB's vice chairman Alfred Herling, Thoma had been "overzealous" and "goes too far when he demands ever wider investigations and more and more lawyers come marching up", today the UK financial watchdog agency FCA announced that Germany's biggest bank has "serious" and "systemic" failings in its controls against money laundering, terrorist financing and sanctions, the Financial Times reported. 
The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), has now ordered a separate independent review, the FT reported the letter as saying. The FCA declined to comment. 
In other words instad of firing it "Chief Ethics Officer" (sic), Deutsche should have ideally hired a few more because as a result of this latest probe it is most likely looking at billions more in settlement charges over the next 6 - 12 months.
"Our overall conclusion was that Deutsche Bank UK had serious AML (anti-money laundering), terrorist financing and sanctions failings which were systemic in nature," the FCA letter, dated March 2, reportedly said.
"Effective senior management engagement and leadership on financial crime had been lacking for a considerable period of time." And where there is effective senior management, the board makes sure to get rid of said management, because if it actually followed the law how could this megabank ever make money in Europe's monetary twilight zone.
Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank said it is cooperating with regulators to fundamentally reform its anti-financial crime program. 
"We understand the importance of this issue and are committed to and engaged in fixing it", a company spokesman said in an emailed statement on Sunday. 
This is only the latest brush-up between DB and the FCA: in late 2014, the UK regulator put Deutsche Bank's London office under enhanced supervision owing to concern about the bank's governance and controls. Enhanced supervision procedures are normally kept private and can follow fines. Following its review, Reuters reports, the FCA ordered a so-called skilled persons report - also called a Section 166 report - to assess remedial work Deutsche must now carry out. 
Deutsche Bank's new chief executive, John Cryan, who took over in July, has embarked on a deep restructuring of the bank, which includes an overhaul of governance procedures. 
Cryan announced in November a review of its know-your-client mechanisms and its vetting procedures when taking on new clients. It has also suspended taking on new customers from 109 countries which it has defined as high risk, compared with 30 countries it had earlier classified as too risky. 
The report on the FCA letter comes not only days after the abovementioned acrimonious public squabble among members of Deutsche Bank's supervisory board and the ejection of the man heading the supervisory board’s Integrity Committee, but also just weeks after Deutsche became the first bank to settle and admit to charges that it had manipulated the gold market, and had also agreed to expose other gold manipulation cartel members. 
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-01/deutsche-bank-has-systemic-money-laundering-terrorist-financing-and-sanctions-proble

This Tech Bubble Is Bursting

Despite record amount of money flowing into venture capital, funding for startups is drying up

ENLARGE
Uber Technologies is valued at $62.5 billion. The company claims it is profitable by some measures in North America, but it is spending huge amounts of money to capture markets in China and elsewhere. PHOTO: HEMANT MISHRA/MINT/GETTY IMAGES

By 
CHRISTOPHER MIMS

May 2, 2016 12:01 a.m. E
When the dot-com bubble burst in early 2000, the fallout for publicly traded stocks was quick and severe. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 37% in the 10 weeks following its peak on March 10, 2000.


For startups, the immediate impact was less dramatic. In the second quarter of 2000, venture capitalists invested $25 billion in startups, down only 5% from the first-quarter peak.
“There was a lot of suspended disbelief between March and June,” says Keith Rabois, then a vice president at PayPal Inc. and now a partner at Khosla Ventures.

‘Mr. Rabois and others think we’re now in a similar period of suspension of disbelief. Startup investment has cooled. Valuations are falling. But Mr. Rabois says many investors and entrepreneurs haven’t yet grasped the new reality. “If that suspended disbelief ends, all hell breaks loose,” he says. 

The parallels between the two eras aren’t perfect. After a seven-month decline, the Nasdaq index has gained 12% since early February. 


As of April 18, it was within 5% of its post-2000 high. Initial public offerings have all but disappeared, but venture-capital funds raised a record amount of capitalin the first quarter.


Mr. Rabois says the record fundraising actually is a bearish sign. Winter is coming, he says, and venture capitalists know it.

5/3/2016

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BAwB9-9QOQI

Listen:


http://www.fromthetrenchesworldreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Censored-interview-of-Jim-Willie-by-Youtube.mp3

Read more at: http://www.trunews.com/trunews-042616-jim-willie-dollar-death-by-gold/#cTigMPRLOeXrpL71.99


http://goldenjackass.com/main5.html



Listed interviews:


INTERVIEW WITH WILL LEHR OF PERTETUAL ASSETS

April 30th:  we covered a wide range of hot relevant topics without any guideline or notes, and entered into many interesting discussions, in particular the breakdown of the US financial structure and the global rejection of the USDollar, with a personal element at the very end of the second part
(BOTH PARTS ON THE FOLLOWING LINK)

https://www.perpetualassets.com/news/2016/04/30/unusual-forecasts-interview-with-jim-willie-part-1/

--
INTERVIEW WITH RICK WILES OF TRU-NEWS
















April 26th: covered a lot of current events, the Great Quickening of events, the focus on the Kremlin as locus of important changes, the impending rejection boycott removal of the USDollar, the toss of Saudis under the bus with potential motivated planned scuttle of their kingdom by the USGovt after Anglo-American bankers sold their gold & bond wealth, the rise of Eurasian Trade Zone with four old Eastern Empires as core (Russia, China, India, Persia), the risk triggers with bank failures, the apparent dual options for the new Dollar launch, the ultimatim possibly given to the Western Elite Satanists who run central banks & governments, and several other related items

http://www.trunews.com/trunews-042616-jim-willie-dollar-death-by-gold/

--
"Long Awaited Gold Breakout"















The Shanghai Gold levers are coming into view, as the Western paper charade in the gold market has become obscene. Paper gold control of price discovery is coming to an end, as the 300-1 ratio of gold claims and 30-1 ration of silver claims are untenable, even unsustainable. Gold is on the verge of a major multi-year price reversal, while Silver has already begun a major multi-year price reversal. The Silver Surfer will take the world by storm. Some added pressure comes from the recent filing by the Sprott Silver Fund. The Wall Street and London Centre boyz dumped a few $billion of gold & silver paper on the market, which bought only a week or two, maybe a little more time. The USFed monetary policy (out of Africa) serves as a USDollar Death Warrant. A global systemic Lehman event is coming. The Gold Standard is to be the global solution at long last.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1461691414.php

--
LAST INTERVIEW WITH DAN SCHULTX














April 20th:  topics covered include the absent potential for continuing the present financial system with rigged markets and printed money from central bank control rooms, how reliance upon QE makes for a death warrant on the USDollar and rejection of the global reserve currency, the growing non-USD platforms and movements and channels which will kick the USDollar to the curb and begin a new era with a valid defensible system replete with integrity, an end soon to heavy handed methods like wars and sanctions and derivative device creation of USTBond demand, upcoming disruptive key events like Shanghai Gold Fix launch and Chinese Interbank Payment System (CIPS = alternative to SWIFT), the futility of inflating the USGovt debt away, the high risks of continued inflation and undermine of other national reserves which push the community of nations into a Global RESET, which is a misnomer to the true action in return to Gold Standard

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-LG0jPipfc

--
"Shanghai, Satanists & Celebration of Fire"













The month of April could feature the Chinese wresting control of the Gold Market,

combined with recent successful field tests for the new Chinese Interbank Payment System (CIPS) as alternative to SWIFT bank system. Following years of thorough abuse of SWIFT as a sanctions weapon, the USDollar is being set up to be kicked to the curb during a powerful global boycott. The month of April is significant as the Satanists have the "Celebration of Fire" on schedule. It is the most deadly week in US History, with a long list of events reaching back past a century ago. Western leaders routinely use their Satanist signals and deploy their many key symbols. Many symbols are prevalent in our daily lives, with the USDollar bill, the Pentagon shape, but also widely throughout the entertainment industry. The Seven Bowls of poison are proposed, with deadly relevance, in firm alignment with certain prophesies. The Return of the Gold Standard is gradually coming into view.
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1460342340.php

--
INTERVIEW WITH ELIJAH JOHNSON












April 4th:  topics covered are the disastrous monetary policy (Quantitative Easing & Zero Percent Interest Policy) as death warrant to the USDollar, how the monetary policy has been a tremendous failure with sharply reduced money velocity and continued economic recession, a list of significant highlight events that can be described as the Great Quickening in the global strike and boycott against the USDollar as global trade payment currency and global reserve currency, the Global RESET as return to the Gold Standard (dismissing the nonsensical misnomer), the impressive reversal of Gold & Silver from the long-term downtrend within the charts, the revival of the Russian & Chinese & Persian Empires which all three are awakening after nearly a century of having been put in the deep freeze by the Western Elites, the Global USDollar strike nears as the Chinese Interbank Payment System will serve as a SWIFT alternative in bank transactions in an effort to end the King Dollar Reign of Terror while permitting the Chinese RMB currency to act as global caretaker currency until the Gold Standard has returned in complete stable form

https://goo.gl/HkXyx9

--
INTERVIEW WITH JASON BURACK











April 2nd:  topics covered are central bank collusion contrasted against recent lack of coordination with breaking from ranks, the ample breakdown evidence in USTreasury Bond market, the negative interest rates as final signal of lost banker control and desperation (breathing through arse pore), the fabricated rally in recent weeks in the crude oil market to enable Wall Street banks to wiggle out of futures risk, the GLD accounting changes with more gyrations as well as contortions as signal of last gasp, the Chinese actual risk in debt default and ability to recover used as distraction to the much more dire US situation (begging question whether Beijing is putting both US & China at risk of debt default knowing that the US will flinch first in a bust), and finally a treat with several statistical analysis observations concerning vote & election fraud in major US elections

https://youtu.be/tr9SnzYDtHg  

--
INTERVIEW WITH PAUL SANDHU 











March 31st:  topics covered include the negative interest rate situation with deep perversion, the upcoming systemic Lehman-type event with several major global credit areas in breakdown, the ZIRP/QE monetary policy as a USDollar death warrant in a destructive end game, a general review of the Gold market on the Shanghai plans (Gold Fix and RMB-based Gold futures contract) with Sandhu's observations about the gold-bank investment policy (use of gold kept out of the system like in temples), some events surrounding Turkey & Syria with respect to NATO (fracturing in core and fringe) and Russia with large scale black market oil and narcotics movement, the new China Interbank Payment System as a SWIFT bank transaction alternative to displace the USDollar system, the new extremely dangerous unstable phenomenon of Pentagon fighting hot war versus Langley mercenaries with implications, the staged terrorist events in Paris and Belgium with official security agency involvement, and the secretive shipments of Arab refugees into the United States using UPS aircraft (middle of night flights)

https://youtu.be/wuGBwHUPDVo

--
INTERVIEW WITH SHELLY JOHNSON OF PITCHFORK RADIO










March 29th:  topics include introduction on hottest buttons, then QE/ZIRP as death sentence to the USD-based global financial structure, the mergers done within the Italian Bank system as emergency measures to accomplish nothing except bigger collapse and bigger hole, the Putin chess moves to exit Syria after exposing ISIS as Anglo-American Israeli terror project, the Japanese financial situation focused upon buying foreign bonds with distress to their system under US slave control, the deep stress to the BRICS core, the secret meetings in Asia (Japan & China) to retire the USDollar from its reign of terror, the secret meetings with Obama and Nazis who have enjoyed safe harbor in Argentina for 70 years (see Bariloche, known for its Swiss Alpine setting and chocolate), and lastly the true purpose of Obama trip to Cuba as feeble effort to secure some of the vast new off-shore oil production projects (never gonna happen)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ll7fewktpZk

--
INTERVIEW WITH CRAIG HEMKE (T.Ferguson) OF TFMETALS










March 25th: numerous topics covered including central bank QE policy, the USDollar, Deutsche Bank and the big banks, the Gold & Silver market, hidden derivative factor, hidden pressures to retain USD usage, the US presidential farce, and even some on ExtraTerrrestrial influence

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/7527/hippity-hoppity-jackass-his-way
--
"Money Velocity Proves Q.E. Failure"









The current monetary policy is stuck in place. It is highly destructive to banking systems, working capital, and financial markets. Quantitative Easing (QE) destroys capital and undermines global banking systems. It is pure Zimbabwe. Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) distorts asset prices, enables derivative games, and dampens economic activity. A systemic Lehman event is in progress. The global financial structure is collapsing. The remedy is the Gold Standard installation, which is happening, all in enormous steps, each kept from public view. It is being done in historically important secret meetings.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1457917200.php

--
"The Great Quickening"








The exciting disruptive Great Quickening has begun in earnest. The end game appears to have begun in November with events picking up speed, the remedy engaged in progressive steps, and geopolitical balance of power shifting in serious manner. Notice the list of major events and factors in the Global Currency RESET which is already in progress, in finance & currency, geopolitics, economics, monetary functions, and more. The USDollar is going away, and Gold is returning, the fair arbiter to take control with a strong Eastern hand. The sequence of future events might become frightening, as the new financial structure comes into view. The potential for disruption to the USDollar-based supply chain and inventory system remains a high risk. Without a proper gold foundation, the United States risks falling into the Third World, as climax to its isolation underway. The onset of the return of the Gold Standard to trade, banking, and currencies is upon us.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1457384400.php

--
INTERVIEW WITH ELIJAH JOHNSON AT FINANCE & LIBERTY





February 25th:  topics covered are changes to the Gold market with changed motivation to invest while huge reversal shows incredible relative strength, the chain of events toward recognition of systemic breakdown and public sentiment, the reflection in a gradual stock market decline in the S&P500 index with a recent retest failure on higher volume, spread of stock market declines in most foreign markets, the last gasp with big banks which might impose negative rates (breathing thru their assholes, calling excrement output) as banks cannot earn profit in conventional bank lending, the disaster of Deutsche Bank which has served as Wall Street Europe in the derivative rooms which could be the lit fuse for contagion

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IdAhYGp-2_M&index=1&list=PLNwUWnJgSq_LsSyEjjIZEtrdUQFhgWWbN

--

INTERVIEW WITH SILVER DOCTOR

February 24th:  topics covered are new gold-backed currencies in environment of US being a member nation among equals, the RESET in stages with profound impact on the United States, the Deutsche Bank implosion and risk of contagion, the insanity of negative interest rates in desperation, the wreck of energy sector defaults as evidence for Petro-Dollar death, and Gold & Silver rise like a phoenix

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtsAb_l_bOc

--
INTERVIEW WITH JB ON CARAVAN TO MIDNIGHT (MP3)






February 24th: numerous topics covered, from critical events in progress with factors leading to the systemic breakdown, but also including some nasty juicy stuff

http://goldenjackass.com/JBW_Willie_2_22_16.mp3

--
INTERVIEW WITH PAUL SANDHU



February 14th:  topics covered are Deutsche Bank collapse and possible contagion with ample signals in systemic banking bust, Stock Market freefall & Bond Market black hole growing with ferocity amidst universal breakdown of economies and financial structures, King Dollar isolation & demise during global margin call with ironic shortage of cash, Iran invited to become third leg in Eurasian Trade Zone with major Chinese deals while $100 billion recovered after sanctions ended, the crude oil price impact in devastating display with massive fallout as oil hedges expire for significant energy firms, sovereign bonds from both Portugal and Italy in race to light PIIGS fuse with more signals as certain big identified European banks teeter

https://youtu.be/skej-z9UaF4

--
INTERVIEW WITH WILL LEHR OF PERPETUAL ASSETS




February 5th:  topics covered are justification of USDollar death throes as seen in the Crude Oil steep decline (basis of Petro-Dollar defacto standard), wreckage of Global Economy from high USD valuation (massive margin call and short squeeze) and from the QE monetary policy (destroyed retired capital), enormous losses for big energy firms which are joined by Standard & Poors downgrades as oil hedges expire, Russia acceptance of RMB payments in oil sales to China (next is Gulf Emirates) to further the global de-Dollarization trend, Iran joins the Eurasian Trade Zone with huge Chinese contracts to complete the three-legged empire stool with Russia & China (next is Germany), declining Central Bank balance sheets to signal end game and plug pulled (ordered by White Dragons possibly as new sheriff), gigantic USTreasury Bond black hole at work that benefits from the breakdown of S&P500 stock index (watch 1870 level as critical support) and will suck in global capital toward the systemic breakdown while the USFed pulls back liquidity support and the Narco Barons suffer supply line cutoffs (thus less stock investment after laundering funds), the Global RESET having begun with the New Scheiss Dollar (domestic only) coming into view with federal deficit support by means of forced nationwide pension fund investments

https://www.perpetualassets.com/news/2016/02/05/accelerating-events-disclosures-with-jim-willie/ 

*** (in two parts, so if you listen to Part 1 before Part 2 is posted, hit REFRESH) ***
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INTERVIEW WITH SHELLY JOHNSON ON PITCHFORK RADIO

February 3rd:  topics covered are Petro-Dollar foundation, money vs legal tender, outsourcing of industry, bond carry trade and Interest Rate Swap machinery, the global rejection of the USDollar as global currency reserve (due to Zimbabwe behavior), brief QE sequence history as monetary policy initiatives, the fake rate hike by the Federal Reserve with real purpose of double barrel by USDept Treasury, the Gold Standard return via the trade ramps then bank reserves then currencies, the Emerging Market nations control of trade while the Anglo-Americans control the currency/bond arena, the recapitalization of the banks by means of placing more Gold bullion as reserves, the Chinese lead with gold-backed currencies with RMB but maybe linked with Gold Trade Note as transition, the requirement of a critical mass for launching a gold currency due to export trade reaction effect with the BRICS Alliance nations as main dogsled, the effect on the USEconomy from a new domestic-only Scheiss Dollar whose devaluations will be done in sequence until the trade and federal deficits are eliminated and closed while shortages arise, the bold move (effective but fascist) will have USGovt requirement to capture private pensions to cover the $1trillion annual federal deficit, and finally disgusting criminal deeds by the Western Elite like the Malaysian Airline killjob by Jacob Rothschild (hired Bush Family) for acquiring the FreeScale chip and the grandfather Baren Rothschild deal to lease the Russian Czar gold hoard (like 12-15,000 gold tons) before the Romanov family was murdered thus making the Bolshevik Revolution a Western gold heist

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8O7iDPgFqQ
(*** sound quality improves markedly after the 18-min mark,,, apologies ***)

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INTERVIEW WITH WILL LEHR OF PERPETUAL ASSETS
January 16th:  covered are numerous hot relevant topics without any script
https://www.perpetualassets.com/news/2016/01/16/you-cant-handle-the-truth-interview-with-jim-willie/
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"Double Barreled Hidden Q.E. to Infinity"
the recent USFed Rate hike was really a hidden expansion to Double Barreled QE, the second barrel is the USDept Treasury heavy deployment of the Exchange Stabilization Fund, it was cleverly executed with effective deception, this early autumn China dumped $250bn in USTBonds but there was no change in the TNX 10-yr bond yield, the effective Fed Funds rate has hardly moved, the Fed Funds rate has an inversion versus the 3-month TBill yield, witness a massive permitted increase in leverage for the Wall Street managed Tower of Babel in USTBonds, the drainage continues in a big way for the USEconomy, a Ponzi Scheme is becoming more obvious glaring evident, the scorecard tells the story in numerous sectors with financial market indexes, the Crude Oil price going under $30 is the trigger for massive disruptions (bank failures), the USDollar is dying as seen in the nasty decline in the oil price, the Gold Standard is coming slowly into view (first in trade, then banking and currencys)
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1452546000.php
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INTERVIEW WITH PAUL SANDHU
January 11th: topics covered are the Saudi Spring and Autumn (fall), the following act in the Turkish Govt downfall, a comparison of Chinese financial and economic distress with the United States, the stealth QE expansion under the guise of USFed rate hike, the retail catastrophe, the oil price collapse with its significant consequences, how USDollar death spiral is evident in massive historically unprecedented crude oil price decline, and the renewed conflict between the Saudis and Iran (not expected by the Jackass)
https://youtu.be/2ImsfFwXP28
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INTERVIEW WITH ELIJAH JOHNSON
January 6th:  topics covered are the deceptive USFed rate hike which can be more accurately described as a rollout of the Double Hidden QE to Infinity that now relies also upon the USDept Exchange Stabilization Fund as the second powerful chamber with national security implications (USDollar death & Third World threat), followed by discussion of numerous RESET events of diverse types which will serve as the broadbased set of global actions required to reform the macro financial system and to engineer the return to the Gold Standard in trade, banking, and currencies
https://youtu.be/3JmhKwC77Xs  (part 1)
https://youtu.be/7viNYUuTgF4   (part 2)
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INTERVIEW WITH RICK WILES ON TRU-NEWS
January 5th:  numerous topics covered from a wide variety of relevant hot issues
https://www.trunews.com/jim-willie-predicts-coming-reset-will-be-a-global-blossoming-event/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HwEpBY-3E8
(either link)
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INTERVIEW WITH CRAIG HEMKE AT TFMETALS
December 30th:  topics covered are a) ISIS origin, with players Turkey, Syria, Iran, and some of the real motives and activities; b) instability of the Turkish Govt and likelihood of regime change; c) USFed fake rate hike, with revealed Reverse REPO volume, exported QE volume; d) abuse of USDept Exchange Stabilization Fund to make Double Hidden QE to Infinity as new double-barreled hyper monetary inflation; e) other QE events cited to qualify as QE4 and QE5; f) huge impaired debt with energy sector, Emerging Market, central bank dumping to wreck big banks; g) fuse to start final stage breakdown is to be oil price going below $30/barrel; and lastly h) dying USDollar evident with powerful oil price decline as both go down together in flames
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/7357/out-old-jackass
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INTERVIEW ON CARAVAN TO MIDNIGHT WITH JOHN B WELLS
December 11th:  a great many topics covered in a whirlwind with some logical flow amidst a certain amount of randomness, which reveals the broken system laden with corruption
http://beforeitsnews.com/economy/2015/12/caravan-to-midnight-dr-jim-willie-european-union-losing-its-unity-2781356.html
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INTERVIEW WITH PAUL SANDHU
November 29th:  topics covered are several important potential triggers to bring about the Death of the USDollar, led by a continued decline in the crude oil price toward the $30 mark with truly enormous fallout, the expiration of the oil hedge contracts in the next couple months with big bank failures and numerous energy firm failures, the onset of Emerging Market debt defaults whose range is between $5 and $11 trillion in volume with an event bigger than the Asian Meltdown in 1998, followed by numerous other threats of USD triggers like the fall of the House of Saud which is in progress, the Saudis (and Gulf Emirates) accepting RMB currency for Chinese oil sales which is inevitable, the inauguration of Gold Trade Notes by Russia & China for usage in trade payments which is soon to emerge, and other events in reduced likelihood or impact, but with an introductory discussion of the recent downing of the Russian MIG over the Syrian border by Turkish Military with an end to the Erdogan Regime likely to occur as result, the ongoing theme being rapidly increasing isolation of the United States
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=42BSctI5Ap4
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INTERVIEW WITH CRAIG HEMKE AT TFMETALS
November 26th:  topics covered include the nonsense and propaganda of a potential USFed rate hike and the disastrous consequences if they are so stupid and destructive to do so (then again maybe it is time to scuttle the USS Dollar and end its reign of terror), the Turkish incident shooting down a Russian MIG over the Syrian border and some of the realities behind ISIS as the sponsored Anglo-American-Izzy terror export for chaos which is gradually being revealed to the entire world, followed by 20 Questions & Answers from the webinar over a wide variety of topics
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/7295/some-razzleberries-jackass
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INTERVIEW WITH JASON BURACK OF WALL ST 2 MAIN ST
November 27th:  topics covered are secret meeting between Putin and Saudi Prince, the wretched finances of Saudi Govt debt, illegal Wall Street purchases of ISIS discounted crude oil, the delayed oil sector bust with associated bank losses, IMF inclusion of Chinese RMB currency and full ramifcations, consequences to gold & silver mining firms if a rash of failures occur, Wall Street entry into the cryto currency niche, Chinese gambit into the Venezuela oil industry, currency and rate swaps as potential bailout tool or transition tool for New Scheiss Dollar
https://youtu.be/sldUugfArNc
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"Triggers in USDollar Collapse"
three important event triggers stand out: 
A) crude oil heading toward $30
B) bank failures from oil hedges
C) debt default from Emerging Market nations
the next crisis will be much worse than Lehman in 2008, the next crisis will be much worse than Asian Meltdown in 1998, many are the triggers toward lighting the countless oily rags (listed in the article), the vulnerability of the entire economic and financial system is enormous, all policies since the year 2000 have been destructive including a few more war fronts, nothing has been put on the table toward remedy but instead continuation, ZIRP & QE contribute toward economic deterioration which is visible in the fast falling Money Velocity, constant war contributes toward economic ruin (like Orwell warned), we are witnessing the death of money, the Gold Standard will emerge from the next crisis, all nations will be begging for a real solution, more paper patch jobs will not work this time around, game over!
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1448589600.php
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INTERVIEW WITH ELIJAH JOHNSON
November 17th: topics covered are negative interest rates by the broken discredited USFed, new debt bubble twice as large as before the Lehman failure in 2008, the Moodys stupidity of concern over economic shocks when the USEconomy is mired in its sixth year of deep recession, decline in bank sector profits where big banks are corrupt hollow towers deeply committed to casino games and bond carry trade, the broken factors in the Silver Market (heavy recent year coin premiums, vacant Live Market, and vanished recycle market)
https://youtu.be/wugNMo5lWEw
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INTERVIEW WITH BITSHARES
November 12th: topics covered are Global Currency Reset with its delayed implementation and confusing aspects and ramifications, constructive cooperation between Russia & China, the Agenda-21 and its many ugly faces from Elite destructive pet projects, the prospect of lower oil prices and the resultant damage with specter of new energy sources, the wonderful independence of internet and freedom from controls, some personal career path details
https://beyondbitcoin.org/beyond-bitcoin-bonus-hangout-jim-willie-golden-jackass/
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INTERVIEW WITH PATRICK TIMPONE
November 10th: topics covered are economists as hired harlots with no motive to be competent or issue correct forecasts, the US nation lost the concept of money capital and liberty, the USFed monetary policy in total disarray, the complex Syria arena with Russia entry where the USGovt nation building went awry with their Parliament as 2/3 Shiite with handshake with Iran neighbor, so the USMilitary exited and ISIS entered the vacuum very quickly, but the Russian Military exposed the USGovt hypocrisy in War on Terror, the bigger motive being to obstruct the Iran Gas Pipeline through Iraq to Syria with Gazprom hookup for European supply (common Ukraine theme), the USTreasury Bond arena is no longer a market, incorrect to assume external USD-based debt will be paid off, as most $5 to $9 trillion Emerging Market USD debt will face default, where the launch of a domestic only USDollar will occur as the USGovt must respond in order to guarantee continued import supply, while the Intl Dollar to be managed by committee (maybe IMF under China control), resulting in the Domestic Scheiss Dollar having to endure devaluations until the deficits are brought under control, with Gold Standard the fair arbiter that will enable bank recapitalization and the re-industrialization of the United States, the Chinese RMB currency seems a house on fire in its internationalization sure to challenge the USDollar as a trade payment standard, the IMF basket inclusion would be a huge step which will result in $1 trillion in RMB bond purchases, also the Gulf Emirate oil payments in RMB terms will be a huge disruptive step, China has launched CIPS as the major RMB-based international payment system as a serious threat to SWIFT system after conforming in standards, curiously the USGovt approved Yuan SDR basket inclusion after China ordered 300 Boeing planes following the hollowed Ex-Im Bank, finally the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Trans-Atlantic Trade & Investment Partnership (TTIP) are obscene fascist system corporate power grabs to lay foundation for fascist state
http://oneradionetwork.com/moneyfinance/jim-willie-weve-lost-the-concepts-of-money-capitalism-and-liberty-november-10-2015/   (in two parts with buttons at bottom)
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INTERVIEW WITH PAUL SANDHU
October 28th:  topics covered are lost US leadership globally, the Petro-Dollar being dismantled, the USMiltary appears in retreat, the RMB international seeding to global banking system, the spread of RMB Hub Centers, the increased RMB trade settlement, the giant kicker to be Gulf Emirate oil sales to Asian clients settled in RMB payments (no more USD), the massive USTreasury Bond cracks covered (not hidden anymore) by $1 trillion in monthly QE volume, the key swing states of Britain, Germany, Turkey, and especially Saudi Arabia
https://youtu.be/adsErowi86E
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INTERVIEW WITH PLANE TRUTH
October 14th:  topics covered are serious trouble in Riyadh with a fall in Saudi Arabia likely, the United States appears to be pulling out of the Middle East, the strong-armed TPP trade union passage, the economic war between US & Germany, the delay in the Currency Reset with Chinese constructive usage of time, the major structural changes in silver market (premiums on recent mint coins, dry vacant Live Market, wrecked Recycle market), and immigration used as a sinister social weapon against Europe
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgGfz6pHe8A
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INTERVIEW WITH WILL LEHR OF PERPETUAL ASSETS
October 7th:  topics covered are hidden QE volume like $1 trillion per month that keeps the corrupt system limping along, the Volkswagen case of fascist business model treachery in an attempt to capture German industrial sector within the King Dollar court, the new Iranian oil supply to keep oil price down to assure massive damage to oil & bank sectors within the United States, the Syrian refugee (hardly migrant) problem with US to blame but open door for 1000 ISIS guerrillas to fan across Western Europe as likely USGovt disruptive motive, the Global shortage of gold & silver with evidence in the rising premiums of coins and lost Silver Recycle market and bare shelves in the Live Market, the apparent one year delay in GLOBAL CURRENCY RESET again, giving China more time to integrate the RMB bonds and trade payments and the USGovt more time to steal gold and print themselves $trillions, the Yemen War with motive for Saudis to steal their oil (on same rich peninsula), but whose war has gone badly for the US-Saudi fumblers as the Saudi Royals face serious challenges to their ruling regime (King Salman with dementia)
https://www.perpetualassets.com/news/2015/10/08/a-fascist-empire-crumbles-with-jim-willie-part-1/  (part 1)
https://www.perpetualassets.com/news/2015/10/08/a-fascist-empire-crumbles-with-jim-willie-part-2/  (part 2)

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Rob Kirby-Dollar Devaluation Clock About to Strike Midnight
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FI01zevYxM