SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image

FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT: Two days ago, northern sunspot AR1640 was barely visible. Now it measures more than 100,000 km from end to end, and it is still growing. This movie recorded by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the sunspot's rapid development on Dec. 31-Jan.1st:The magnetic fields of fast-growing sunspots can become unstable and erupt. So far, however, AR1640 is as quiet as all the other sunspots on the solar disk. Solar activity remains very low even as AR1640 boosts the odds of a significant flare. NOAA forecasters estimate a 10% chance of M-class eruptions during the next 24 hours.

CHANCE OF FLARES: Sunspot AR1640 has developed a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. At the moment, however, the sunspot is mostly quiet, producing only a smattering of low-level C-class eruptions. Solar wind flowing from this coronal hole should reach Earth on Jan. 8-9.

Solar activity is low, but not utterly absent. On Dec. 31st, magnetic fields winding around the sun's northeastern limb un-twisted explosively. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the action: The movie spans four hours with a rapid-fire cadence of only 30 seconds. It hows a mass of hot plasma flying upward. Unable to break the bonds of the sun's gravity, however, most of the material fell back to the stellar surface.

VERY SPOTTED SUN: Solar activity is still relatively low, but the appearance of the sun suggests the quiet might not last. Over the weekend, a profusion of new sunspot groups peppered the solar disk with dark cores--each one a potential source of eruptions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 35% chance of M-class flares and a 5% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours. AURORA WATCH: "With solar activity being so low lately, you wouldn't expect many auroras. More lights are in the offing. A solar wind stream is heading for Earth and it could spark polar auroras when it arrives on Jan. 8-9. NOAA forecasters estimate a 15% - 20% chance of geomagnetic storms.

CHANCE OF FLARES: NOAA forecasters estimate a 35% chance of M-class flares and a 5% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours. The most likely source would be sunspot AR1652; it has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class eruptions. The active region is circled in this Jan. 8th image from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory: Of greater interest, perhaps, is the large sunspot emerging just south of AR1652. Denoted by an arrow, the unnumbered region is crackling with C-class solar flares and, based on its size, could be capable of even stronger eruptions. We will know more in the days ahead as the sunspot turns toward Earth; a more direct view will reveal what kind of magnetic field the sunspot posseses.

January 9, 2013 – SPACE – CHANCE OF FLARES: NOAA forecasters estimate a 35% chance of M-class flares and a 5% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours. The most likely source would be sunspot AR1652; it has a ‘beta-gamma’ magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class eruptions. The active region is circled in this Jan. 8th image from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory: Of greater interest, perhaps, is the large sunspot emerging just south of AR1652. Denoted by an arrow, the unnumbered region is crackling with C-class solar flares and, based on its size, could be capable of even stronger eruptions. We will know more in the days ahead as the sunspot turns toward Earth; a more direct view will reveal what kind of magnetic field the sunspot possesses. A very large sunspot is emerging over the sun’s eastern limb. Numbered AR1654, it consists of two dark cores each 4 or more times wider than Earth. –Space Weather

INCREASING CHANCE OF FLARES: Big sunspot AR1654 is growing more active. It is now crackling with M-class solar flares, such as this one recorded by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory this morning at 09:11 UT: AR1654 is getting bigger as it turns toward Earth: movie. Not only is the chance of flares increasing, but also the chance of an Earth-directed eruption.This could be the sunspot that breaks the recent lengthy spell of calm space weather around our planet.

SOLAR VARIABILITY AND TERRESTRIAL CLIMATE: A new report issued by the National Research Council, "The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth's Climate," lays out some of the surprisingly complex ways that solar activity can make itself felt on our planet. Get the full story from Science@NASA.

ACTIVE SUNSPOT: Big sunspot AR1654 is crackling with C- and M-class solar flares, and it poses a threat for even stronger eruptions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 5% chance of X-flares today. Flares are illuminating the sunspot's magnetic canopy like flash bulbs at a rock concert; the phenomenon is evident in this 37-hour extreme ultraviolet movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory: Since it first appeared four days ago, sunspot AR1654 has been facing away from Earth. But now it is turning toward us, increasing the "geo-effectiveness" of its explosions. This could be the sunspot that breaks the recent lengthy spell of calm space weather around our planet.

CHANCE OF FLARES: So far today, solar activity is low. However, that could be the calm before the storm. The magnetic field of big sunspot AR1654 has grown more complex. It is now classified as a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field, which means it harbors energy for X-class eruptions.

If there is a flare today, the blast would be Earth-directed. This sunrise shot, taken at dawn on Jan. 16th by Jan Koeman on the bank of the Westerschelde River in the Netherlands, shows how AR1654 (circled) is almost directly facing our planet: "Sunspot complex AR1654-AR1656 was clearly visible through the clouds and mist," says Koeman. "It was a wonderful sunrise even at -8 degrees celsius."

Solar wind
speed: 391.0 km/sec

INCOMING CME BOOSTS ODDS FOR AURORAS: NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% to 45% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Jan. 17th when a CME is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. The impact could spark bright auroras around the Arctic Circle.

JUPITER-MOON CONJUNCTION: When the sun goes down tonight, step outside and look east. The Moon and Jupiter are converging for a tight conjunction on Monday evening, Jan. 21st. Most sky watchers will see the two bright bodies just a fraction of a degree apart. Observers in parts of South America will witness an even closer encounter--an occultation, in which the Moon passes directly in front of Jupiter. Sky maps: Jan. 20, 21.

CME IMPACT + MICROBIAL LIGHTS: A coronal mass ejection hit Earth's magnetic field on Jan. 19th at approximately 17:15 UT. The weak impact did not trigger a full-fledged geomagnetic storm, but it did illuminate the Arctic Circle with auroras.

The Sun blasted out at least eight coronal mass ejections in all directions over the course of five days (Jan. 9-14, 2013). While none of them was a major storm, the frequency is indicative that the Sun is approaching the period of solar maximum in its solar cycle. The images were taken by the STEREO (Ahead) spacecraft's COR2 coronagraph. The STEREO spacecraft are each more than 120 degrees beyond the Earth-Sun line, so that this is a very different view from the one available from Earth or spacecraft (like SDO) near it. The Sun (here represented by the small white circle) is blocked out by the black occulting disk so that the faint features in the Sun?s corona can be imaged.

SOUTHERN CORONAL HOLE: A hole in the sun's atmosphere--a "coronal hole"--has opened up in the sun's southern hemisphere, and it is spewing a stream of solar wind into space. Extreme UV cameras onboard NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed the dark gap during the early hours of Jan. 23rd: Solar wind flowing from this southern coronal hole should reach Earth on Jan. 26-27. Coronal holes are places in the sun's atmosphere where the sun's magnetic field opens up and allows solar wind to escape. A stream of solar wind flowing from this particular coronal hole should reach Earth's orbit on Jan. 26-27. Whether it will actually hit our planet is unknown. Because of the coronal hole's high southern latitude, the solar wind it emits might miss our planet, sailing high over our own South Pole. High-latitude sky watchers should nevertheless remain alert for auroras.

SLIM CHANCE OF FLARES: NOAA forecasters estimate a 10% chance of M-class solar flares and a mere 1% chance of X-flares today. The probable source would be sunspot AR1660, which is almost directly facing Earth.

Solar wind speed: 290.0 km/sec

SLIM CHANCE OF FLARES: NOAA forecasters estimate a 10% chance of M-class solar flares and a mere 1% chance of X-flares today. The probable source would be sunspot AR1660, which is almost directly facing Earth.

FILAMENT ERUPTIONS: Two long filaments of solar magnetism have erupted on the sun today, Jan. 23rd, hurling bright coronal mass ejections into space. This one passed directly in front of Mercury: A second CME sailed high over the sun's north pole: image. Earth was not in the line of fire of either eruption.

There are four sunspots visible on the Earthside of the sun. None of them is actively flaring. NOAA forecasters put the odds of an M-class solar flare today at no more than 5. Solar wind speed: 377.7 km/sec

MAGNETIC FILAMENT: A bushy filament of magnetism is snaking over the sun's northeastern limb. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory took this extreme UV picture of the structure, which stretches more than 150,000 km from end to end, during the early hours of Jan. 30th: If this filament becomes unstable, as bushy magnetic filaments often do, it could erupt and hurl a portion of itself into space. Amateur astronomers with backyard solar telescopes are advised to monitor developments.

If the filament does erupt, it will likely be the only solar activity today. No sunspots are actively flaring. NOAA forecasters estimate a slim 1% chance of M-class solar flares during the next 24 hours.

ERUPTING MAGNETIC FILAMENT: As expected, an unstable filament of magnetism curling over the sun's northeastern limb erupted today. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the blast at approximately 0515 UT on Jan. 31st: Despite the obvious energy of the blast, very little of the filament actually flew into space. The sun's gravity pulled most of the debris back to the stellar surface. So this eruption was primarily photogenic, not geoeffective.

Elsewhere on the sun, no sunspots are actively flaring. NOAA forecasters estimate a slim 1% chance of M-class or X-class solar flares during the next 24 hours

SUNSPOT OF INTEREST: A break in the quiet could be in the offing. Sunspot AR1667 is crackling with C-class solar flares and appears capable of producing an even stronger M-class eruption. The sunspot is turning toward Earth, so future blasts would likely be geoeffective. Solar wind flowing from these coronal holes should reach Earth between Feb. 4th and 6th.

LOUD SOLAR RADIO BURST: Yesterday, Feb. 2nd, the solar activity forecast called for "quiet." In fact, says amateur radio astronomer Thomas Ashcraft, "it was really loud. There were several strong solar radio emissions including one super-strong Type III burst at 1954 UT. I captured it at 28 MHz and 21.1 MHz as it totally drowned out a short wave voice transmission. The source of the burst was sunspot AR1667, which unleashed a C2.9-class solar flare just before the roar emerged from the loudspeaker of Ashcraft's radio telescope. Type III solar radio bursts are produced by electrons accelerated to high energies (1 to 100 keV) by solar flares. As the electrons stream outward from the sun, they excite plasma oscillations and radio waves in the sun's atmosphere. When these radio waves head in the direction of Earth, they make themselves heard in the loudspeakers of shortwave radios around the dayside of the planet.

More radio bursts could be in the offing. Sunspot AR1667 is crackling with C-class solar flares and seems poised for even stronger M-class eruptions.

CORONAL HOLE: A vast hole in the sun's atmosphere--a "coronal hole"--has opened up in the sun's northern hemisphere, and it is spewing a stream of solar wind into space. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed the UV-dark gap during the early hours of Feb. 5th: Coronal holes are places where the sun's magnetic field opens up and allows solar wind to escape. Material flowing from this particular coronal hole should reach Earth's orbit on Feb. 7-8. Because of the opening's high northern latitude, the solar wind stream will not hit Earth head on; instead it could be a glancing blow. Even so, the impact could spark polar auroras later this week.

DECREASING CHANCE OF FLARES: Sunspot AR1667 is decaying, and this has prompted NOAA forecasters to lower the odds of an M-flare today to only 10%. Solar activity should remain low for the next 24 hours.

DOUBLE ERUPTION (UPDATED): Sunspot AR1667 erupted this morning (Feb. 6th @ 00:21 UT), producing a double-peaked C9-class solar flare that lasted more than ten hours from beginning to end. The slowly-unfolding explosion also hurled two CMEs into space. The clouds are not heading directly for Earth, but they could deliver glancing blows to our planet's magnetic field on Feb. 9-10. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend.

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2013 Feb 09 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels due to a long duration C2 flare. The
flare began at 09/0530 UTC, peaked at 09/0640 UTC and ended at 09/0726
UTC. This two-ribbon, Hyder flare erupted along a 27 degree NE-SW
oriented, quiescent filament centered near N23W06. Imagery from STEREO
Ahead COR2 imagery indicated a CME lifted off the NE limb, first
observed at 09/0709 UTC. Subsequent LASCO C2 and C3 imagery revealed a
partial-halo CME lifted off the N-W limb, first visible on C3 at 09/0806
UTC. Initial shock velocity estimates put the plane-of-sky speed at
about 500 km/s. It appears most of the ejecta has a northly trajectory.
Region 1670 (N19E06) indicated the most change during the period.
Intermediate spot growth was observed coupled with an increase in area
and development of a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration. This region, as
well as the remander of the disk and limb, was quiet and stable.

Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low during the period (09 - 11 Feb)
with a slight chance for an M-class flare from developing Region 1670.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal
levels.

Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to remain at background levels through the period (09 - 11 Feb). The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to
be at normal levels through the period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
ACE EPAM data showed a slight decrease in values through the period.
Solar wind speeds remained steady between 450 km/s to 475 km/s. Total
IMF varied between 2 nT to 7 nT with a maximum southward Bz component of
-7 nT observed at 08/1237 UTC. The phi component remained in a mostly
positive (away) orientation.

Forecast...
Wind speed is expected to stay elevated on day 1 (09 Feb) due to coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. A gradual decrease in wind
speed is expected on days 2 and 3 (10 - 12 Feb) as CH HSS effects
subside.

Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled
interval observed at 08/1500 UTC.

Forecast...
Field activity is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels on
day 1 (09 Feb) due CH HSS effects. Activity is expected to
decrease to mostly quiet levels on day 2 (10 Feb) as CH HSS effects
subside with quiet levels persisting through day 3 (11 Feb).

TIMEWATCHER'S GLP THREAD: http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message2125159/pg2#36017549

EARTH-DIRECTED ERUPTION: On Saturday, February 9th, around 0640 UT, a magnetic filament in the sun's northern hemisphere erupted, hurling a coronal mass ejection (CME) toward Earth. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the UV flash from the underlying C2-class solar flare:
The CME, which was captured in flight by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, billowed away from the sun at 800 km/s. The bulk of the cloud looks like it will sail north of Earth. Nevertheless, a glancing blow is possible as shown in this 3D model of the CME prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Flight Center. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on Feb. 12th when the CME passes by.

The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment. Click on a data panel to open an updating secondary window. An updating Satellite Environment Plot window is also available.

Although these data are of interest to the satellite community, they do not include all parameters and energy ranges known to be associated with satellite anomalies. See related information from the NOAA POES satellite -- Auroral Activity Estimates, Relative Intensities of Energetic Particles, and Solar Protons.

SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS: NOAA forecasters estimate a 15% of polar geomagnetic storms on Feb. 12th when a solar wind stream is expected to brush against Earth's magnetic field. Debris from a magnetic filament that erupted on the sun a few days ago might also arrive, further boosting the odds of auroras around the Arctic Circle. Solar wind flowing from this coronal holes could brush against Earth's magnetic field on Feb. 12