SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image

FILAMENT ERUPTION: Solar activity is low, but not zero. During the early hours of Feb. 13th, a magnetic filament erupted near the sun's SW limb. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the blast (click to set the scene in motion): The extreme UV movie shows the filament flinging itself into space followed by the formation of a "canyon of fire" marking the channel formerly occupied by the filament. The glowing walls of the canyon are formed in a process closely related to that of arcade loops, which appear after many solar flares. http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/loops.shtml

As erupting magnetic filaments often do, this one launched a coronal mass ejection (CME) into space. NASA's STEREO-A spacecraft spotted the expanding cloud, which does not appear to be heading for Earth or any other planet.

VALENTINE'S DAY MAGNETIC STORM: Valentine's Day in Scandinavia began with a magnetic storm. Rob Stammes of the Polar Light Center in Lofoten, Norway, reports: "Our instruments recorded 2o swings in the local magnetic field, which induced strong electrical currents in the ground outside our lab." The needles on his chart recorder were swining wildly: "Overhead we saw some fantastic auroras," he adds. The storm was caused by a region of south-pointing magnetism in the solar wind that wafted past Earth during the early hours of Feb. 14th. The solar wind's south-pointing magnetic field partially canceled Earth's north-pointing magnetic field, opening a crack in our planet's magnetosphere. Solar wind poured in to fuel the storm.

INTERPLANETARY SHOCK WAVE: A shock wave moving through the solar wind hit Earth's magnetic field on Feb. 16th at approximately 11:30 UT. The impact did not spark a geomagnetic storm. Nevertheless, sky watchers around the Arctic should be alert for auroras as Earth passes through the wake of the disturbance.


Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) appear to originate preferentially in regions of the Sun's corona that are sigmoidal, i.e., have sinuous S or reverse-S shapes. Yohkoh solar X-ray images have been studied before and after a modest number of Earth-directed (halo) CMEs. http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/login.jsp?reload=true&tp=&arnumber=902208&url=http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/iel5/27/19507/00902208.pdf?arnumber=902208

M-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: New sunspot AR1675 has just unleashed the most intense flare of the year so far, an M1.9-class explosion at 1550 UT on Feb. 17th. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured a double-flash of extreme UV radiation from the explosion: Update: First-look coronagraph images from SOHO and the twin STEREO probes suggest that this explosion did not produce a coronal mass ejection (CME). Geomagnetic storms are therefore unlikely. Earth's upper atmosphere, however, probably did experience a minor wave of ionization caused by the UV flash shown above

CHANCE OF FLARES: New sunspot AR1678 has developed a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for strong explosions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 55% chance of M-flares and a 15% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours. FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT: At the beginning of this week, sunspot AR1678 didn't exist. Now it is five times wider than our entire planet. NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the sunspot's rapid emergence on Feb. 19-20: Sunspots are islands of magnetism that float on the surface of the sun. This one is emerging from depth and changing at such a rapid pace that its magnetic field is likely unstable. A reconnection event in AR1678's magnetic canopy could lead to a significant solar flare. Solar wind speed: 402.5 Solar wind flowing from sinuous coronal hole could reach Earth as early as Feb 21st.

A giant sunspot that's at least six times the diameter of Earth has formed on the sun in less than 48 hours, according to NASA.Sunspots form when the sun's magnetic fields rearrange and realign. They tend to be unstable and can lead to solar flares. According to a news release, scientists from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory watched the sunspot rapidly grow on February 19 and 20. The agency says it could even be larger than six times the diameter of Earth "since the spot lies on a sphere not a flat disk." Sun activity goes through cycles that stretch about 11 years. Currently the sun is moving toward the peak of a very energetic cycle which scientists expect to last through the middle of this year. CHANCE OF FLARES: New sunspot AR1678 has developed a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for strong explosions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 45% chance of M-flares and a 15% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours.

The protective bubble around the sun that helps to shield the Earth from harmful interstellar radiation is shrinking and getting weaker, NASA scientists have warned.cThe protective bubble around the sun that helps to shield the Earth from harmful interstellar radiation is shrinking and getting weaker, Nasa scientists have warned.New data has revealed that the heliosphere, the protective shield of energy that surrounds our solar system, has weakened by 25 per cent over the past decade and is now at it lowest level since the space race began 50 years ago."Around 90 per cent of the galactic cosmic radiation is deflected by our heliosphere, so the boundary protects us from this harsh galactic environment."The heliosphere is created by the solar wind, a combination of electrically charged particles and magnetic fields that emanate a more than a million miles an hour from the sun, meet the intergalactic gas that fills the gaps in space between solar systems. At the boundary where they meet a shock wave is formed that deflects interstellar radiation around the solar system as it travels through the galaxy.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...shrinking.html

This significant development must be investigated in light of two other recent developments, first is "Our solar system is passing through an interstellar cloud discovered by Voyager. "Using data from Voyager, we have discovered a strong magnetic field just outside the solar system," explains lead author Merav Opher, a NASA Heliophysics Guest Investigator from George Mason University. "This magnetic field holds the interstellar cloud together and solves the long-standing puzzle of how it can exist at all." Astronomers call the cloud we're running into now the Local Interstellar Cloud or "Local Fluff" for short. It's about 30 light years wide and contains a wispy mixture of hydrogen and helium atoms at a temperature of 6000 C. The existential mystery of the Fluff has to do with its surroundings. About 10 million years ago, a cluster of supernovas exploded nearby, creating a giant bubble of million-degree gas. The Fluff is completely surrounded by this high-pressure supernova exhaust and should be crushed or dispersed by it."Voyager data show that the Fluff is much more strongly magnetized than anyone had previously suspected—between 4 and 5 microgauss*," says Opher. "This magnetic field can provide the extra pressure required to resist destruction."

The size of the heliosphere is determined by a balance of forces: Solar wind inflates the bubble from the inside while the Local Fluff compresses it from the outside. Voyager's crossings into the heliosheath revealed the approximate size of the heliosphere and, thus, how much pressure the Local Fluff exerts. A portion of that pressure is magnetic and corresponds to the ~5 microgauss Opher's team has reported in Nature. The fact that the Fluff is strongly magnetized means that other clouds in the galactic neighborhood could be, too. Eventually, the solar system will run into some of them, and their strong magnetic fields could compress the heliosphere even more than it is compressed now. Additional compression could allow more cosmic rays to reach the inner solar system, possibly affecting terrestrial climate and the ability of astronauts to travel safely through space. On the other hand, astronauts wouldn't have to travel so far because interstellar space would be closer than ever. These events would play out on time scales of tens to hundreds of thousands of years, which is how long it takes for the solar system to move from one cloud to the next. "There could be interesting times ahead!" says Opher.

To read the original research, look in the Dec. 24, 2009, issue of Nature for Opher et al's article, "A strong, highly-tilted interstellar magnetic field near the Solar System."

Earth's north magnetic pole is racing toward Russia at almost 40 miles (64 kilometers) a year due to magnetic changes in the planet's core, new research says. The core is too deep for scientists to directly detect its magnetic field. But researchers can infer the field's movements by tracking how Earth's magnetic field has been changing at the surface and in space.

Now, newly analyzed data suggest that there's a region of rapidly changing magnetism on the core's surface, possibly being created by a mysterious "plume" of magnetism arising from deeper in the core.

And it's this region that could be pulling the magnetic pole away from its long-time location in northern Canada, said Arnaud Chulliat, a geophysicist at the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris in France.
http://in.news.yahoo.com/139/2009122...-racing-t.html

FARSIDE HOTSPOT: As big sunspot AR1678 departs, another active region is approaching. NASA's STEREO-B probe, stationed over the farside of the sun, is monitoring a significant ultraviolet hotspot. It is circled in this 360-degree Stoneyhurst projection of the entire solar surface:In the projection, longitudes between +90 and -90 degrees are on the Earthside of the sun; other longitudes are on the farside. The image shows that the farside active region is poised to rotate from farside to Earthside within the next couple of days. Perhaps it will bring some flares with it.

CORONAL HOLE: A dark gap in the sun's atmosphere--a "coronal hole"--has opened up, and it is spewing a stream of solar wind into space. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) photographed the opening during the early hours of Feb 24th: Coronal holes are places where the sun's magnetic field opens up and allows the solar wind to escape. A stream of solar wind flowing from this particular coronal hole is expected to reach Earth on or about March 2nd. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on that date. Bonus: The image also shows the magnetic canopy of a sunspot group approaching just beyond the sun's northeastern limb. The active region should emerge in the next 24 hours.

SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLARES: New sunspot AR1682 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 10% chance of an eruption. Solar wind flowing from this coronal hole should reach Earth on March 2-3.

FARSIDE CME: There is an active sunspot on the farside of the sun. Yesterday, Feb. 25th, it blasted a coronal mass ejection (CME) over the sun's northwestern limb, shown here in a movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory:A 3D model of the CME prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab shows that the CME will miss everything--no planets are in the line of fire.

NASA's STEREO-Ahead spacecraft is stationed over the farside of the sun, almost directly above the CME. Images from the spacecraft pinpointed the source of the blast: It is active sunspot AR1678, which rotated off the Earthside of the sun just a few days ago.

CHANCE OF EARTH-DIRECTED FLARES: Sunspot AR1682 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. Because the sunspot is squarely facing Earth, any eruptions today would be geoeffective. NOAA forecasters estimate a 15% chance of M-flares. Solar flare alerts: text, voice.

JUPITER-SIZED HOLE: A magnetic filament curling around the sun's southwestern limb erupted during the early hours of Feb. 27th. As it flew away, it formed a loop of plasma big enough to pass the entire planet Jupiter. (Croquette anyone?) Click on the image to set the scene in motion:

This eruption brings to an end a stunningly beautiful prominence that amateur astronomers had been monitoring for days. Hopefully, they'll continue looking because a new prominence appears to be forming from the debris.

Isn't everything so fragile? Were on this sliver of the biosphere, magnetically held together by centrifugal force. Our bodies, our nature. We display total irreverence.

CORONAL HOLE: A dark, V-shaped gap in the sun's atmosphere has opened up, and it is spewing solar wind into space. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory took this picture of the coronal hole during the early hours of Feb. 28th: Coronal holes are places where the sun's magnetic field spreads apart and allows solar wind to escape. A stream of solar wind flowing from this particular coronal hole should reach Earth on March 2-3. NOAA forecasters estimate a 20% to 25% chance of polar geomagnetic storms when the solar wind arrives.

magamud wrote:Isn't everything so fragile? Were on this sliver of the biosphere, magnetically held together by centrifugal force. Our bodies, our nature. We display total irreverence.

It's a miracle that we're even alive.

I read somewhere (Can't remember where though) that Humans and / or Life of Planet Earth revolves around 20 or so different Systems and without even one of those Systems in Operation - We and most likely all the life on Terra would never have existed...

SPECIAL ?

You bet but Man - That isn't the half of It...

NEW RADIATION BELT DISCOVERED: NASA's twin Van Allen Probes, launched just last August, have revealed a previously unknown third radiation belt around Earth.

GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A minor (Kp=5) geomagnetic storm is underway around the poles. The cause is a medium-speed (~500 km/s) stream of solar wind that hit Earth's magnetic field during the late hours of Feb. 28th. Reports of auroras are coming in from around tthe Arctic Circle, like these photographed by Frank Olsen of over Norway: Sunspot AR1682 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares. Solar wind speed: 558.8 km/sec

"The weather here in Vesterålen has been terrible for more than a week," says Olsen. "I was so glad the clouds parted so we could catch the auroras at 1:30 am local time on March the 1st."

More auroras are in the offing. NOAA forecasters estimate a 20% to 25% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on March 2-3 as the solar wind continues to blow.

Something unexpected is happening on the sun. 2013 is supposed to be the year of Solar Max, but solar activity is much lower than expected. At least one leading forecaster expects the sun to rebound with a double-peaked maximum later this year. Earth is inside a stream of solar wind flowing from the indicated coronal hole.

GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES: A high-speed solar wind stream is buffeting Earth's magnetic field, sparking bright auroras around the Arctic Circle. The sight of the bright green lights overhead is causing some onlookers to do unusual things in the snow: More auroras are in the offing. NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% to 45% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on March 2-3 as the solar wind continues to blow. Solar wind speed: 501.6 km/sec

Uploaded on Jan 29, 2012 - Energetic events on the Sun have impacts throughout the Solar System. This visualization, developed for the Dynamic Earth dome show, utilizes data from space weather models based on a real coronal mass ejection (CME) event from mid-December 2003.

Particles are used to represent the flow of solar material from the Sun around the Earth. It is important to note that the flowing material of the CME are actually ions and electrons far too small to see. This visualization tries to represent the motions of these tiny particles in a form large enough for us to see.

We open with a close-up view of the Earth, the particles representing the solar wind streaming around the Earth due to extended influence of the Earth's magnetic field. We pull out from the Earth and move so that we see the Sun in the distance. The enormous density enhancement in the solar wind is the coronal mass ejection. As the CME reaches the Earth, we see how effective the Earth's magnetic field is at diverting the solar material around the Earth. As the CME passes, we move earthward, and reveal the field lines representing the Earth's magnetic field, emanating from the magnetic poles and blown behind the Earth due to the influence of the solar wind. For simplicity, we have represented the Earth's magnetic field as unchanging, but it is actually very dynamic in its response to a CME or other change in the solar wind.

credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

source: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/goto?3902

WEEKEND AURORAS: Throughout the weekend, a solar wind stream buffeted Earth's magnetic field, sparking Northern Lights around the Arctic Circle. Aurora tour guide Chad Blakley sends this report from Abisko National Park, Sweden: "Every dark night for the last five years I have gone out and patiently waited for the opportunity to see a once-in-a-lifetime aurora display. March 3rd was the night that it happened." Scroll past his photo of the apparition for the rest of the story:"Our guests spent most of the evening photographing some very nice auroras," he continues. "Then, on the way back to the lodge the most amazing corona I have ever seen appeared and danced overhead for about five minutes. Some of our guests were in tears and others were overcome with laughter and joy. Tonight will be a night that I never forget!"

NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on March 4th as Earth exits the solar wind stream. Arctic sky watchers should remain alert for auroras. Solar wind flowing from the indicated coronal hole should reach Earth on March 7-8.

FARSIDE EXPLOSION: An active region on the farside of the sun exploded during the early hours of March 5th, hurling a bright CME into space. Cameras onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) recorded the expanding cloud: NASA's STEREO-Behind spacecraft is stationed over the farside of the sun, directly above the blast site. An extreme UV telescope onboard the spacecraft recorded a movie of the explosion. The responsible active region will rotate onto the Earthside of the sun in less than a week, which means geoeffective solar activity is in the offing.

AURORA WATCH: NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on March 8th when a solar wind stream might brush against Earth's magnetic field. Arctic sky watchers--including those on dog sleds--should be alert for auroras. Dirk Obudzinski was watching auroras dance over Cripple Creek, Alaska, on March 7th when a fireball split the sky: "A lucky catch!" says Obudzinski. "Cripple Creek, just south of the White Mountains, is one of my favorite shooting locations, and it delivered a great spectacle." The fireball was a random meteoroid disintegrating some 80 km above Earth's surface. It appears to be below the auroras--and it is. Auroras typically occur at altitudes between ~100 km and 300 km. One makes a great backdrop for the other.

Several important dates are approaching. On March 10th, Comet Pan-STARRS makes its closest approach to the sun (0.3 AU). At that time, solar glare might make it difficult to see even as the nucleus vaporizes and brightens. On March 12th and 13th, the comet will reappear in the sunset sky--this time in the northern hemisphere not far from the crescent Moon; think photo-op! Light curves suggest that the comet's brightness will peak near 2nd magnitude, similar to the stars of the Big Dipper.

Pesnell expects them to rebound in 2013: 'I am comfortable in saying that another peak will happen in 2013 and possibly last into 2014.'
He spotted a similarity between Solar Cycle 24 and Solar Cycle 14, which had a double-peak during the first decade of the 20th century.
If the two cycles are twins, 'it would mean one peak in late 2013 and another in 2015'.


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2290289/NASA-warns-unexpected-happening-Sun-year-supposed-peak-sunspot-cycle.html#ixzz2MztjFfWA

CHANCE OF STORMS: NOAA forecasters estimate a 65% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on March 15th when a CME might deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field. The CME was launched by a filament of solar magnetism that erupted on March 12th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras when the cloud arrives.

CME IMPACT: As expected, a coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field on March 15th at approximately 0500 UT. The impact was weak, but conditions for geomagnetic storming could develop as Earth passes through the CME's wake. High latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on March 15th and 16th.

POSSIBLE EARTH-DIRECTED CME: A magnetic filament snaking around sunspot AR1692 erupted on March 15th at about 0600 UT. The slow explosion, which took hours to unfold, produced an M1-class solar flare and a bright CME. SOHO (the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) captured the CME just as it was leaving the sun:The central location of the explosion combined with multiple views of the CME from SOHO and NASA's twin STEREO spacecraft suggest that the cloud is heading almost directly toward Earth. If so, an impact would likely occur in 2 to 3 days, setting the stage for weekend auroras.

Solar Wind Speed: 446.9 km/sec

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 2053
Issue Time: 2013 Mar 15 0531 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2013 Mar 15 0530 UTC
Valid To: 2013 Mar 15 1700 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WATA30
Serial Number: 101
Issue Time: 2013 Mar 15 1712 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Mar 16: G1 (Minor) Mar 17: G2 (Moderate) Mar 18: None (Below G1)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

On Mar 16 8:00pm UTC a CME with speed greater than 800km/s is predicted
Normal speed is 200- 400km/s - "Red zone" is 800km/s

www.swpc.noaa.gov/SWN/index.html (ACE Solar Wind Page)
"Speed" greater than 800km/s is "Red zone"

www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/ (Solar Wind Prediction Page)
At Mar 16 8:00pm UTC
"Speed" is greater than 800km/s

Conclusion
NOAA classifies this CME as "Red zone"
Although it's M-Class, its high speed increases its effect (dynamic pressure - note significant density)

Based on observations in the last year or so, this CME will have an effect on par with the largest CMEs seen lately. Probability suggests that before Mar 16 8:00pm UTC