Carol Sat Jun 25, 2016 11:44 am
German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said today that the EU would weather the shock of the British vote to leave the union as he convened crisis talks. "I am confident that these countries can also send a message that we won't let anyone take Europe from us," he said heading into a meeting in Berlin of his counterparts from the EU's six founding members.http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-25/germany-says-we-wont-let-anyone-take-europe-usAs Barclays wrote overnight, the biggest potential worry is that another country, especially one that is also part of the EMU, might set out on a political path towards exiting the EU and EMU.
While a country leaving the EU is a big event, one potentially leaving the EMU would be a much bigger deal. If markets start attaching a greater probability to an EU referendum (and a possible exit) in an EMU country,
it could spark a return of redenomination risk and financial fragmentation, undermining business confidence and hampering business investment and growth.A series of recent surveys and statements by some European parties suggest that this risk is real. Anxiety over immigration and a weak economic recovery have greatly eroded pro-EU sentiment in the euro area.
A recent Pew survey found that roughly half or more of the population in large EU countries such as France, Spain and Germany viewed the EU unfavorably. The same survey showed that overwhelming majorities in most countries disapproved of the EU’s handling of refugees, as well as the economy.
In a similar poll released by Ipsos Mori in May, nearly half of euro area citizens wanted a referendum on EU membership in their own country, including majorities in France and Italy (Figure 2). And in recent days, leading political parties in countries such as France (National Front), Italy (Five Star Movement), Denmark (Danish People’s Party), and Holland (Freedom Party) have all called for either a EU referendum of their own or a renegotiation of their country’s EU membership. These calls have become louder in countries such as Holland after the UK vote.
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And as the following chart shows, the pain for Europe is just starting:
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It appears that the trade now is not to sell Sterling, at least not anymore: one should have done that at 1.50 when everyone was wrong about the Brexit outcome based on manipulated polls as we explained
ahead of the event. If anything, sterling will rebound following the positive boost to the UK economy following the devaluation. It's the long EUR trade we would be far more concerned about here...