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Join date : 2010-04-07
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Carol Thu Feb 18, 2016 12:17 pm
VIETNAMESE DONG APPRECIATION & EAST ASIAN EXCHANGE RATES
http://philosophyofmetrics.com/vietnamese-dong-appreciation-east-asian-exchange-rates-freepom/
the above article is free and therefore not posted in its entirety here.
WHY THE VIETNAMESE DONG WILL RESET
http://philosophyofmetrics.com/why-the-vietnamese-dong-will-reset/
SNIP
Economic Potential and Modernization
By JC Collins
Vietnam has achieved a truly remarkable thing. While being a dumping ground for U.S. dollar inflation and having its own currency consistently devalued, Vietnam has managed to produce one of the fastest economic expansions and modernizations in the history of the world. It’s a model of modernization built upon the experience and lessons of China, Korea, and other Asian countries which developed before it.
The modernization of Europe and the Americas took centuries. The modernization of China was achieved in approximately 50 years. Compare that to the astonishing modernization which only began in Vietnam in the mid 1990’s. In less than 20 years, the country has turned from a destitute population on the verge of starvation to an expanding middle class that is considered by all economic indicators to be the fastest such expansion in the world.
In true Confucian fashion, Vietnam utilized the tactics of economic warfare deployed against it as a tool of economic development. The exchange rate of the dong was devalued on a continually basis to encourage use of the U.S. dollar within the country. This ensured another market for the dollars inflation to be sent to avoid a hyper-inflation situation back home.
In addition, the Vietnamese understood the economic potential of their resources and trade capability. The strategy was one of patience and long term gain for short term detriment.
....Today, Vietnam is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. It has the fastest growing middle class and its GDP to debt ratio has been maintained within the 30% to 35% range for years. Its oil and gas fields are being developed, it’s the second largest exporter of rice in the world, Samsung is moving its factories into the country, Starbucks is opening locations, and in fact McDonald’s just opened their first location in the country just last weekend.
The list of economic milestones for Vietnam is growing by the day. The amount of U.S. dollars held in the country’s foreign reserves has been decreasing for the past few years and the import of gold is staggering. As we presented previously, the Shanghai Gold Exchange through agreements with China will increase the gold holdings in many Asian countries by way of gold vault storage and trade agreements. The Vietnamese government itself is making known its intent to monetize all the private gold in the country to support the value of the dong.
The hard working Vietnamese people will require a strong and stable currency to ensure reliable labor energy wealth storage. It’s only a matter of time now before the I.M.F. 2010 Code of Reforms are passed through the U.S. Congress and the Executive Board of the I.M.F. is restructured to reflect the economic reality of the world today. When this happens the dollar will lose its reserve currency status and the dong will be released from it peg. When this happens I would suspect that the value of the dong, not officially recognized today as it has been stretched like elastics, due to the economic growth and develop, and will snap back to its true economic value, which is reflected in those very same growth and development indicators.
What will the rate be? Based on the upcoming SDR composition and allocation system of the International Monetary Fund, who can say with any measure of reliability, there are too many factors which need to be considered and weighed against others factors.
Also see:
SDR Supplemental: VND or VNN? IQD or IQN?
The New Exchange Rate System – Posted Feb 19, 2014.
The American Dollar is Dumping Vietnam – Posted May 16, 2014.
Vietnam Seeks Dong Stability as Dollar Nears Collapse – Posted July 1, 2014.
A Global Currency Reset – Posted May 28, 2014. Last edited by Carol on Thu Feb 18, 2016 1:36 pm; edited 1 time in total
_________________
What is life?
It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.
With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol