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    CHINA’S RATE CHANGE IS PREPARATION FOR WIDENING OF TRADING BAND

    Carol
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    Post  Carol Sat Aug 15, 2015 12:12 pm

    CHINA’S RATE CHANGE IS PREPARATION FOR WIDENING OF TRADING BAND
    http://philosophyofmetrics.com/chinas-rate-change-is-preparation-for-widening-of-trading-band/
    By JC Collins

    There are multiple things going on with the recent announcement from the People’s Bank of China to reduce the daily reference rate of the renminbi against to USD by 1.86%.  The most obvious factor which we need to consider is that China is preparing to widen the trading band.

    China’s State Council itself announced on July 24th that they would be widening the trading band against the USD from 2% to 3%.  So the move yesterday by the PBoC should not be a big surprise when we consider the level of strategy taking place between China and the United States in regards to the multilateral transition.

    Back in March I published a post titled When Will China End the Dollar Peg, where we reviewed the process which China will follow on its path to having their currency added to the SDR basket composition.   In that piece I stated that China will in fact widen the trading band in the lead up to the SDR decision, or right after.  As stated, this was recently confirmed by China’s State Council.


    The IMF said last month that the renminbi is now considered to be fairly valued.  The United States has been vocal about China’s currency not being liberalized enough and more market oriented.  The move by the PBoC both addresses the US concern and in fact allows the RMB to be more market oriented.

    But that is not the end game with this move.

    Understanding the trading band between the RMB and USD is vital to understanding what is taking place here.   The daily reference rate which acts as an RMB peg to the USD, or otherwise referred to as the midpoint rate, defines the middle of the trading band.

    read more at link above.


    Last edited by Carol on Sat Aug 15, 2015 2:37 pm; edited 1 time in total


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    Post  Carol Sat Aug 15, 2015 12:13 pm

    AUGUST 11, 2015 JCOLLINS LEAVE A COMMENT
    By JC Collins

    There are multiple things going on with the recent announcement from the People’s Bank of China to reduce the daily reference rate of the renminbi against to USD by 1.86%.  The most obvious factor which we need to consider is that China is preparing to widen the trading band.

    China’s State Council itself announced on July 24th that they would be widening the trading band against the USD from 2% to 3%.  So the move yesterday by the PBoC should not be a big surprise when we consider the level of strategy taking place between China and the United States in regards to the multilateral transition.

    Back in March I published a post titled When Will China End the Dollar Peg, where we reviewed the process which China will follow on its path to having their currency added to the SDR basket composition.   In that piece I stated that China will in fact widen the trading band in the lead up to the SDR decision, or right after.  As stated, this was recently confirmed by China’s State Council.


    The IMF said last month that the renminbi is now considered to be fairly valued.  The United States has been vocal about China’s currency not being liberalized enough and more market oriented.  The move by the PBoC both addresses the US concern and in fact allows the RMB to be more market oriented.

    But that is not the end game with this mov

    Understanding the trading band between the RMB and USD is vital to understanding what is taking place here.   The daily reference rate which acts as an RMB peg to the USD, or otherwise referred to as the midpoint rate, defines the middle of the trading band.

    Currently the trading band is set at 2%, which was increased last year from 1% to 2%.  This band allows the RMB to rise or fall 2% from the midpoint rate which is established by the PBoC.  For clarity, the yuan can fall 2% below the trading band or it can rise 2% above the trading band.

    A cut in the midpoint rate of 1.86% will still allow the yuan to rise and fall by 2% within the band.  If it rises the full 2% above the midpoint rate than the cut accomplished very little from a straight forward perspective.

    But it also allows the yuan to depreciate the 2% below the midpoint rate as well, which is lower than it was before the change.

    Some fundamentals at play here need to be addressed.  There is the logical and linear strategy of currency depreciation as a form of economic warfare.  This is the much discussed currency wars which are believed to be somewhat random and reactionary.  I propose that nothing happening in the monetary system today is reactionary.  It is all a well thought-out strategy.

    In this fashion, it is being reported that now India, Russia, and Thailand, are considering a rate cut to their domestic currency.  This play will increase the exchange rate volatility which we have stated here over and over will increase pressure on the dollar denominated monetary framework.

    At this point of the transition, the rate cuts but China, and any other ones that follow, will hurt the USD more.  Like the yuan, the initial response is a depreciation of the currency pegged against the USD, but this will only amplify the systemic imbalances in the USD denominated framework.

    Using the Chinese move as our reference point, a further depreciation of the yuan against the dollar will increase exports out of China.  As long as the USD remains as the global reserve currency this increase in Chinese exports will further increase America’s trade deficit, putting even more international and domestic pressure on the dollar.

    This increasing pressure on the USD in the lead up months to the RMB being added to the SDR basket will acts as a sort of elastic when the Special Drawing Right composition finally changes and international confidence in the RMB as a reserve currency expands.

    At this point, the capital outflows from USD denominated instruments into RMB denominated instruments will increase and will help manufacture the massive amount of demand required to shift away from using the dollar as the primary reserve asset and begin implementing the SDR in its place.

    The USD will begin to experience depreciation at this point against other currencies and the use of substitution accounts to exchange dollar denominated foreign reserves will commence.

    Keep in mind that it is US Treasury policy that a strong dollar hurts the American economy.  China’s move to weaken the yuan against the dollar, though only temporary, is in fact a huge response to America’s resistance to reforming the international monetary framework.

    This reduction in the daily midpoint rate is allowing for an increase in pressure on the USD in the lead up to the SDR decision, which will be made in China’s favor.  The kneejerk reactions stating this rate cut will hurt China’s chances of having the yuan added to the SDR do not consider the balance of payments deficits and broader macroeconomic need for a multilateral framework.

    The interest rate increase which the Federal Reserve will announce soon will create further pressure on the USD and USD denominated instruments.  The action by China, and the coming action by the Fed, will both work together towards the multilateral transition.  The margin of fluctuation is found in how much each currency will depreciate or appreciate, and the time it will take to do so.

    Perhaps China likes having a huge trade surplus and would like the keep RMB appreciation under control to maintain that surplus.  America needs to lower its trade deficit, but this will not happen as long as China maintains its trade surplus.  The need for the US to remove the dollar as the reserve currency is directly related to this imbalance between payments.

    I would suspect that the Fed rate increase is being delayed in attempts to manoeuver around the outside of a Chinese currency depreciation.  Regardless, the Fed cannot wait much longer to take action on the appreciating dollar, and when it does, China will be sure to widen the trading band of the RMB against the USD within days of the Fed announcement.

    Chinese policy makers understand that they cannot have their cake and eat it too.  At some point they will have to allow the RMB to appreciate against other currencies in order to reduce its exports and trade surplus.  This is the main reason why they are planning the transition from a trade exporting economic model to a trade services economic model.

    What this means is that China will be exporting RMB denominated instruments as a form of trade, and less cheap goods.  This move on reducing the midpoint rate is temporary and will eventually lead to the appreciation of the yuan.  Eventually the band will not only expand to 3% or possibly 4%, but it will in fact be ended and the RMB will be allowed to free float.  It’s inclusion into the SDR basket will facilitate this ending of the managed peg.  Now would be a good time to invest in the Chinese currency.

    The implementation of a new SDR composition which includes the RMB could work on a sliding scale type valuation.  The initial inclusion of the RMB could still be pegged to the USD with a widened trading band, such as 4%.  This could be reviewed bi-annually, or annually, with the trading band widened by 2% increments after each assessment.  Over a period of time this incremental widening of the RMB trading band will stabilize the exchange rates between both currencies and the appreciation and depreciation expectations can be balanced without causing increased systemic risk and volatility.

    Considered in that light, the recent reduction in the midpoint rate of the band by the PBoC is a direct shot at the US.  It’s telling American policy makers that the longer you delay acting on reforming the international monetary framework, the harder and longer
    we are going to make it for you to climb out of your trade deficit and depreciate your currency to where you need it to be.   – JC


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    Post  Carol Sat Aug 15, 2015 2:37 pm

    China stages biggest currency devaluation in 20 yrs to revive exports
    www.rt.com/business/312160-beijing-dumps-yuan-trade/


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    Post  Carol Sat Aug 15, 2015 3:10 pm



    Last edited by Carol on Sat Aug 15, 2015 3:56 pm; edited 1 time in total


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    Post  Carol Sat Aug 15, 2015 3:11 pm

    Vietnam Widens Dong’s Trading Band After China Devalues Yuan

    http://bloom.bg/1HEXNvP
    devalued 1%
    August 11, 2015 — 10:05 PM EDT Updated on August 12, 2015 — 3:47 AM EDT

    Vietnam widened the dong’s trading band on Wednesday to allow the currency to weaken after China, its biggest trading partner, devalued the yuan.

    The dong can now move as much as 2 percent on either side of a fixing set by the monetary authority, from 1 percent previously, the central bank said in a statement. The dong weakened 1 percent to 22,040 a dollar as of 2:16 p.m. in Hanoi. The central bank set the reference rate at 21,673, unchanged from the previous day.

    The move follows two devaluations of the dong, by 1 percent each, in January and May. The action today is “to help the dong be more flexible” and maintain competitiveness’’ of Vietnamese products, as the yuan devaluation will have a negative economic impact, the State Bank of Vietnam said. Export growth slowed to 9.5 percent in the first seven months of 2015, compared with 14.1 percent in the year-earlier period.

    “This is very timely policy action. The move today would help promote exports,” Alan Pham, chief economist at VinaCapital Group, Vietnam’s biggest fund manager, said by phone from Ho Chi Minh City. “Vietnamese exports have been under great pressure from the U.S. and EU markets.”


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    Post  Carol Sat Aug 15, 2015 3:14 pm

    12 Signs That An Imminent Global Financial Crash Has Become Even More Likely
    http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/12-signs-that-an-imminent-global-financial-crash-has-become-even-more-likely

    “We’re on the Verge of a Crisis” and Global Currency Wars Are Triggering It
    http://russia.trendolizer.com/2015/02/were-on-the-verge-of-a-crisis-and-global-currency-wars-are-triggering-it.html


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    Post  Carol Sat Aug 15, 2015 3:16 pm


    UNITED States of America  -  It can now be reported that trillions of dollars of undermargined ETFs (exchange traded funds) linked to the Central Bank of China and the Central Bank of Japan are about to implode on each other and go hybrid.

    U.S. banking giant JPMorgan, German Deutsche Bank, Barclays Bank of England, ABN AMRO of Holland, along with the U.S. Federal Reserve itself, face major exposure and contagion which began last night with the Peoples Republic of China devaluing their currency, the yuan, by 2%.

    Definition: An ETF is traded on major worldwide exchanges, including the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME Group), based on 5% margin and 100% leverage.

    As of this hour, these ETFs are still on the books of the CME Group with zero percent margin and zero percent leverage.

    P.S. We can now divulge that China is prepared to devalue its currency by as much as 18% as to improve their exports and take the Japanese yen from 124 back to 111.

    In closing, this is more than a currency war. This is "Financial Armageddon" that will lead to the collapse of worldwide financial markets.

    We can also mention that the  privately owned  U.S. Federal Reserve is now in a box they can not escape from; the Fed was actually planning to raise U.S. interest rates as to "Bail-Out" and create more liquidity for these aforementioned bank ETFs.

    Stay tuned.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVRsSa9AMZo


    Last edited by Carol on Sat Aug 15, 2015 3:20 pm; edited 1 time in total


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    Post  Carol Sat Aug 15, 2015 3:19 pm

    Dong Unleashed: Vietnam Preserves Currency Shrinkage With Wider Trading Channel
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-12/dong-unleashed-vietnam-preserves-currency-shrinkage-wider-trading-channel


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    Post  Carol Sat Aug 15, 2015 3:29 pm

    BREAKING NEWS: Massive Explosion in China- Nuclear?

    Massive explosion in China, just east of Beijing  at the port city of Tianjin. TWO explosions, one after the other.  The first was reported by the official Chinese news as being the equivalent of 3 tons of TNT, followed by a second explosion that was much bigger, the equivalent of 21 tons of TNT.

    This is exactly what was seen TWICE in Yemen in May:  first blast, smaller, followed by a huge blast approximately 20-30 seconds later.  The Yemen bombs in May were pony nukes- I sent the videos to several ex military artillery specialists who all confirmed that these were low yield nuclear bombs.

    http://removingtheshackles.blogspot.com/2015/08/breaking-news-massive-explosion-in.html

    it was a chemical warehouse for fireworks and ammunition manufacture all very volitile -stuff that when water hits it , it explodes violently stuff like sodium and and phospherous powdered magnesium - the first explosion triggered the sprinkler system and the reaction with the water did the rest.


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    Post  Carol Sat Aug 15, 2015 3:38 pm


    Is The Currency War Over? China Revalues Yuan 0.05% Stronger

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-13/currency-war-over-china-revalues-yuan-005-stronger

    Currency-rigging lawsuit settlements rise past $2 billion: lawyer
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/13/us-forex-manipulation-settlement-idUSKCN0QI2J720150813

    What the Latest Currency 'War' is All About
    "Forget the hysteria. The heart of the matter is that Beijing has stepped on the gas in a quite complex long game; to liberalize the yuan exchange rate; allow it to free float against the US dollar; and establish the yuan as a global reserve currency. So this is essentially exchange rate policy liberalization — not a currency "war", as the frenetic spin goes from Washington/Wall Street to Tokyo via London and Brussels."
    http://sputniknews.com/columnists/20150812/1025667927/yuan-devaluation-reserve-currency.html


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    Post  Carol Sat Aug 15, 2015 3:53 pm



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    Post  Carol Sat Aug 15, 2015 3:55 pm

    Big lies of the week - IMF rejected the yuan, and China conceded defeat by devaluing currency. Get the facts people
    http://philosophyofmetrics.com/chinas-rate-change-is-preparation-for-widening-of-trading-band/



    Japan finance minister: would be desirable for yuan to become SDR currency
    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/08/07/us-japan-economy-aso-idUKKCN0QB2N020150807


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    Post  Carol Sat Aug 15, 2015 3:59 pm

    [8/14/15, 3:08:08 AM] Paul from Minnesota: shawn smith
    AUGUST 12, 2015 AT 1:47 AM
    Great article JC!

    I added to my RMB stack this week, I’m also in the millionaire Dong club LOL.

    But, I have such a hard time believing that gold won’t jump up. If bonds and stocks take a hit and the dollar starts to slide what other options do they have? Also what would stop a billionaire like Soros from creating a problem where there wasn’t one and simply buy up all the deliverable because he thinks he can make a buck in the panic? In no way am I trying to say you’re wrong … I probably just can’t see it … but the American’s tend to panic with all the fear they get pumped with.

    There’s no telling what could happen.
    REPLY
    Jcollins
    AUGUST 12, 2015 AT 3:52 AM

    Shawn, thanks for the comment. No worries about challenging the POM analysis, I can tell its coming from the right place. My original conclusion of gold initially going lower was based on the dollar strengthening in the lead up to the first stages of the transition. That is what has been happening. Gold has dropped $300.00 since I originally presented that analysis last year. The reserve status of the dollar is the problem and caused the systemic imbalances which are now being amplified by the current dollar appreciation. The higher the dollar goes the lower gold will.

    You’ll notice the news this evening about China reducing the reference rate again for the second day in a row. As you stated, there’s no telling what could happen. As expected, the year is shaping up to be historic.

    Jcollins
    AUGUST 12, 2015 AT 3:59 AM
    I forgot to add that my analysis does include gold going higher when the dollar begins its depreciation. I’d like to say gold has hit a bottom, but I suspect the dollar will surge a bit more and push gold down into the $800.00 to $900.00 range before turning. The remainder of this year will be a continuous increase in volatility in all markets.


    “I would suspect that the Fed rate increase is being delayed in attempts to manoeuver around the outside of a Chinese currency depreciation. Regardless, the Fed cannot wait much longer to take action on the appreciating dollar”

    I am a little confused. Reading your statement above, are you saying that the Fed is going to delay the interest rate hike because of this chinese move? If yes, this contradicts your earlier statement (below):

    “The interest rate increase which the Federal Reserve will announce soon will create further pressure on the USD and USD denominated instruments.”

    Are you saying that the Fed will hike anyway to further appreciate the USD in the short term and amplify the imbalances even further? Could you please clarify? Thank you

    REPLY
    Jcollins
    AUGUST 12, 2015 AT 5:09 AM
    The confusion is understandable, as I wasn’t very clear. The rate increase has already been delayed and should likely have happened earlier in the year. It is my opinion that the rate increase will happen within the next few months.

    rodriguez perez
    AUGUST 12, 2015 AT 12:33 PM
    What a mess! If your last goal, JC, is get me mad, it is only a matter of…inches.
    Follow up the situation between USD and Yuan is difficult but understandble, although it would be interesting resetting the timtable if possible.

    Other question is take decisions with the euro, because it seems to me that is trying to help the USD and goals like (1,40 v. USD), (1.25 v. Fr.S.) and (8.5/9.5 v. Yuan) are possible in not too long. As I told before may be the Euro is looking for a room to depreciate later on domestic currencies.
    Does make it sense for you, JC? Regards

    REPLY
    Jcollins
    AUGUST 12, 2015 AT 2:07 PM
    Are you saying you’re getting mad at me? I’m not sure because of the language barrier.

    I’ve expressed my opinion that there will be many changes with the euro, one of them being the return of domestic currency for use in each country, with the euro being used as a reserve asset for each country to balance trade amongst the members. The members with trade surpluses will see their domestic currency appreciate and those with trade deficits will see their domestic currency depreciate.

    Is this what you’re asking?


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    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Sat Aug 15, 2015 4:40 pm

    IMF: Yuan reforms could bring China 'quite close' to floating rate
    http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL1N10P1VK20150815


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    Post  Carol Sat Aug 15, 2015 4:42 pm




    Subscription only: China’s Military Strategy
    https://solari.com/blog/chinas-military-strategy/
    by Catherine Austin Fitts

    China has issued a new white paper on Military Strategy. Driving back to Palo Alto yesterday from an appointment inland, the heat was unbearable. It seemed like a good time to hole up at a well air-conditioned Starbucks and read the report carefully.


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol

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