Eurozone critical mass: How it could all go down this summer with Italy and Finland exiting and banks in flames

June 13, 2012 – EUROPE - Here’s how the Eurozone crisis might come to a head over the summer: a “Spanic,” followed by a “Quitaly,” followed by a “Fixit.” A fresh panic in Spain might be followed by rising demands for Italy to quit if it doesn’t get the same terms its fellow Mediterranean country has been offered, followed by a Finnish departure from the euro that might finally bring the whole saga to a climax. It would be a rough ride — and you wouldn’t want to be holding many assets other than dollars or gold or possibly Swiss francs while it was playing itself out. But at least it might bring a resolution to the crisis. Almost a quarter of the euro’s 17 members have now needed outside help, and Cyprus will probably join the list soon. It is hardly a great record for a monetary experiment, which, let us remember, was meant to bring greater stability — not less. So how could this play out over the summer. Here’s how the sequence might work: First, the Spanic (for a panic in Spain). We’ve just seen one rescue package for the troubled Spanish banks. But who says 100 billion euros is enough? This is a country that is sliding into deep recession, and where the government is cutting spending fast — which is only going to deepen the recession. The economy is forecast to contract by 1.7% this year, and the actual outcome could be much worse. During a recession, businesses go broke, unemployment rises, and loans don’t get repaid because people don’t have any money. None of that is good for the banking system. Imagine how that is going to feel to the Italians. The Spanish get to borrow money at half what it costs them — and this at a time when very high borrowing cost are pushing your country into the fifth recession since the nation joined the single currency. Worse, Italy has to stump up around 22% of the Spanish rescue — borrowing money at 6% to give to its neighbors at 3%. That isn’t going to go down well. Finally a Fixit (for a Finnish exit). The crisis will finally come to a head when one country decides to get out. Finland is the most likely. Why? Because it is a small nation with a strong economy. It is easy to head for the door. Finland would be better off on the first day, just as Estonia was when it decided to leave the ill-fated ruble zone created after the collapse of the old Soviet Union. It doesn’t particularly have to worry about the impact on the European Union, in the way that Germany would if it opted out. If a country such as that leaves, it is effectively game over, but no one can really say that of a tiny place such as Finland. And it has a strong anti-euro political grouping; the True Finns scored well in the last election and may well improve their position in the polls. Finland is already demanding collateral for its portion of the Spanish loan. That could well turn into a deal-breaker — no collateral, so we’re out of here. Once one country leaves, it is much easier for the next to leave, in much the same way as it is easier to be the second person to leave a really bad party than the first. –Market Watch

Few large eurozone banks would be left standing and the banking sector could face a €370bn (£298bn) loss if the euro crisis results in the single currency bloc breaking apart, according to one of the first indepth analyses of what might happen if the eurozone disintegrates. The analysis by Credit Suisse estimates that up to 58% of the value of Europe’s banks could be wiped out by the departure of the “peripheral” countries – Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain – from the eurozone. Even if the single currency remains intact some €1.3tn of credit could be sucked out of the system as banks retrench to their home markets, unwinding years of financial integration, the Credit Suisse analysis warns his represents as much as 10% of the credit in the financial system. “We find that a Greek exit could be manageable … but in a peripheral exit, few of the large listed eurozone banks would be left standing,” the Credit Suisse report said. The banking sector could need capital injections of as much as €470bn if the three scenarios considered by the Credit Suisse analysts – a Greek exit, an exit of the periphery countries and a situation where banks retrench domestically – happen at once. The UK’s banks will not escape unscathed, although they are better insulated than those in the eurozone. In the event that the peripheral countries leave the eurozone, Barclays faces losses of €37bn and bailed out Royal Bank of Scotland some €26bn. If only Greece were to leave the single currency, the Credit Suisse analysts calculate that losses for Europe’s banks would be limited to some 5% of the stock market value of banks across the eurozone with French banks and investment banks being hit hardest. Credit Agricole would be worst effected by a Greek exit. The Credit Suisse analysts insist they are not expecting the euro area to break up – or for Greece to leave – but they believe it is likely there will be a dramatic reduction in cross-border business – leading to less loans for businesses and individuals. The International Monetary Fund has estimated that some €2tn of credit could be lost through a eurozone break up and the Credit Suisse analysts point out they have only analysed the impact on banks they research. –Guardian

June 13, 2012 – ATHENS - Greeks pulled their cash out of the banks and stocked up with food ahead of a cliffhanger election on Sunday that many fear will result in the country being forced out of the euro. Bankers said up to 800 million euros ($1 billion) were leaving major banks daily and retailers said some of the money was being used to buy pasta and canned goods, as fears of returning to the drachma were fanned by rumors that a radical leftist leader may win the election. The last published opinion polls showed the conservative New Democracy party, which backs the 130 billion euro ($160 billion) bailout that is keeping Greece afloat, running neck and neck with the leftist Syriza party, which wants to cancel the rescue deal. As the election approaches, publishing polls is now legally banned and in the ensuing information vacuum, party officials have been leaking contradictory “secret polls.” On Tuesday, one rumor making the rounds was that Syriza was leading by a wide margin. “This is nonsense,” one reputable Greek pollster said on condition of anonymity. “Our polls show the picture has not changed much since the last polls were published. Parties may be leaking these numbers on purpose to boost their standing.” The pollster said there was some consolidation, with voters turning to New Democracy and Syriza from smaller parties but the pool of undecided voters remained unusually large so close to the election and the result was impossible to predict. Both parties say they want Greece to remain in the single currency but Syriza has pledged to scrap the bailout agreement signed in March which has imposed some of the toughest austerity measures seen in Europe in decades. The European Union and International Monetary Fund have warned that Greece, which has only enough cash to last for a few weeks, must stick to the conditions of the bailout deal or risk seeing funds cut off. -CNBC


Greek banks hemorrhaging: As Bloomberg’s Marcus Bensasson reports, citing Kathimerini, the Greek banking system has continued to hemorrhage deposits this month, amid uncertainty over the outcome of elections on June 17. “Many people are putting money in shares of mutual funds denominated in dollars because of the bureaucratic difficulty of taking money out of Greece, or are keeping cash at home, the newspaper said.” How much? “Deposits are leaving the banking system at a rate of 100 million to 500 million euros ($125 million to $625 million) a day, Kathimerini said, without specifying over how long a period that rate of outflow has continued.” Considering that the Greece banking system has about €170 billion in total deposits, this is roughly 0.3% of the entire deposit base fleeing each day – those who understand the nuances of fractional reserve banking get why this could be an issue. Putting this in the US context, which has over $8 trillion in various forms of deposits; this would be equivalents to about $25 billion getting withdrawn every day. –Zero Hedge http://www.zerohedge.com/news/greek-bank-run-update-€100-€500-million-day

This old greek culture connect to andromedans council is targeted by usraelmob, because they know, that democracy is bound to slaves.

Insider know, that greeks got 7 Billion on foreign banks, which was before the bailout allready a multiple of their "dept". Not to mention those greeksliving a fat live abroad. So this arteficial BS of Austerity is a form of warfare, besides a crime of treason &&&...

Greece is in danger from Iranwar and the resulting chinese onmarch to establish the Hong "Hongomany" globalized sliteye, which used that illuminaty eyecandy as a trapdoor for stupid investors.
But i will test those ortodox faithes anew to align their purposeless caos!
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