SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image

POISED TO EXPLODE? Big sunspot AR1520 has been relatively quiet for the past 24 hours, but this could be the calm before the storm. The sunspot has a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares.

SOLAR ARCHIPELAGO: Sunspots are magnetic islands on the sun. Sunspot AR1520 is a complete archipelago. Scroll down to scan more than 200,000 miles of island chain:Amateur astronomer Alan Friedman took the picture on July 10th from his backyard observatory in Buffalo, New York. "AR1520 is a tremendous archipelago and a wonderful target for backyard solar telescopes," he says. The tangled magnetic canopy of the sunspot group, shown here in an extreme UV image from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory, harbors energy for strong solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate an 80% chance of M-class flares and a 15% chance of X-class flares during the next 24 hours.

UPDATE, 3:30 p.m.: NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) just posted the following:

The R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout today at 12:49 EDT (1649 UTC) was accompanied by an earth-directed CME. Hampered by limited observations of the event, SWPC forecasters are now anticipating the passage of the [coronal mass ejection] around 1:00 a.m. EDT, Saturday, July 14. G1 (minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity is expected to then ensue through the rest of the day.

In short, NOAA is predicting minor effects from this space weather event - no major impacts on the power grid or satellites anticipated - although we remind you forecasting space weather is difficult and surprises are possible. Sky watchers in northern U.S. (and high latitudes) may have an opportunity to see aurora late Friday night into early Saturday morning.

Original post, from 2:30 p.m.: A massive sunspot region facing Earth - known as 1520 - has unleashed a large solar flare. NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center says the flare is rated an X1.4. This type of flare is considered “strong” and can cause a blackout of high frequency radio communication on the sunlit side of Earth for one to two hours.

It is not yet known whether the flare was accompanied by a coronal mass ejection (CME) - an outburst of particles that can trigger a geomagnetic storm on Earth and damage the electrical grid.

X-FLARE! Big sunspot AR1520 unleashed an X1.4-class solar flare on July 12th at 1653 UT. Because this sunspot is directly facing Earth, everything about the blast was geoeffective. For one thing, it hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) directly toward our planet. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will hit Earth on July 14th around 10:20 UT (+/- 7 hours) and could spark strong geomagnetic storms. Sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend. The UV pulse partially ionized Earth's upper atmosphere, disturbing the normal propagation of radio signals around the planet. Monitoring stations in Norway and Ireland recorded the sudden ionospheric disturbance.

Finally, solar protons accelerated by the blast are swarming around Earth. The radiation storm, in progress, ranks "S1" on NOAA space weather scales, which means it poses no serious threat to satellites or astronauts. This could change if the storm continues to intensify.

X-FLARE! Big sunspot AR1520 unleashed an X1.4-class solar flare on July 12th. Because the sunspot is directly facing Earth, everything about the blast was geoeffective. For one thing, it hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) directly toward our planet. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will hit Earth on July 14th around 10:20 UT (+/- 7 hours) and could spark strong geomagnetic storms. Sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend.

The explosion also strobed Earth with a pulse of extreme UV radiation, shown here in a movie recorded by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:

http://www.spaceweather.com/

UPDATE, 3:30 p.m.: NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) just posted the following:

The R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout today at 12:49 EDT (1649 UTC) was accompanied by an earth-directed CME. Hampered by limited observations of the event, SWPC forecasters are now anticipating the passage of the [coronal mass ejection] around 1:00 a.m. EDT, Saturday, July 14. G1 (minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity is expected to then ensue through the rest of the day.

In short, NOAA is predicting minor effects from this space weather event - no major impacts on the power grid or satellites anticipated - although we remind you forecasting space weather is difficult and surprises are possible. Sky watchers in northern U.S. (and high latitudes) may have an opportunity to see aurora late Friday night into early Saturday morning.

Original post, from 2:30 p.m.: A massive sunspot region facing Earth - known as 1520 - has unleashed a large solar flare. NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center says the flare is rated an X1.4. This type of flare is considered “strong” and can cause a blackout of high frequency radio communication on the sunlit side of Earth for one to two hours.

It is not yet known whether the flare was accompanied by a coronal mass ejection (CME) - an outburst of particles that can trigger a geomagnetic storm on Earth and damage the electrical grid.

Joe Kunches of NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder said one of the NASA satellites tasked with watching for solar weather, SOHO, was “on maneuvers” when the flare launched.

That will make the task of predicting the course of any subsequent CME more difficult.

“The home plate umpire wasn’t paying any attention,” said Kunches.

But two other NASA sun-facing satellites, STEREO A and B, were watching.

“It’s now up to the first and third base umpires to see if it crosses home plate” – meaning Earth, Kunches said.

UPDATE, 2:35 p.m.: NASA’s Goddard Space Weather Center said a CME has occurred with the flare. No additional information is yet available.

In addition to possible effects on the power grid, geomagnetic storms can disturb Earth-orbiting satellites and produce aurora - mainly at high latitudes, but into the mid-latitudes if they are strong enough.


The X-flare emitted by the gigantic sunspot region falls within the class of biggest solar flares. M-class flares are medium-sized and C-class flares are smaller.

Within each class of flares, there additional size divisions.

For example, X-flares are rated 1-20 (and higher). The present flare, an X1.4, is at the bottom of the scale. So while this is a large, strong flare, it’s not the same as an X20 flare, considered extreme.
"Discovered in 1986, Comet 96P/Machholz is a fascinating comet that has passed through SOHO coronagraph images four times now," says Karl Battams of the Naval Research Lab. "It's not a huge comet but it is very photogenic, and puts on quite a display with its beautiful dusty tail."

In an essay posted on his web site, Battams explains why the comet is so fascinating. Many researchers suspect 96P/Machholz is not a native of our solar system; some chemical evidence suggests it came from another star. Also, 96P/Machholz appears to be dynamically related (that is, the comet's orbit is related) to a diverse collection of other objects in the solar system including asteroid 2003 EH1 and the Quadrantid, Southern Delta Aquariid, and daytime Arietid meteoroid streams. All of these things--the asteroid, the comet, and the meteoroids--might be fragments of a single "foreign" body that broke apart thousands of years ago.

Comet 96P/Machholz will be visible in SOHO coronagraphs until July 17th. Battams believes the comet will reach a peak brightness of 2nd magnitude--not its best show. "But who knows," he says, "maybe Comet Machholz will do something completely and utterly unexpected like fragment into a swarm of Machholzlets." Join SOHO for a ringside seat.

GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A geomagnetic storm is in progress as Earth's magnetic field continues to reverberate from a CME strike on July 14th. At first the CME's impact seemed relatively weak, but conditions in the wake of the CME have become stormy. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say that satellites in geosynchronous orbit may have been directly exposed to solar wind plasma. Also, Northern Lights have appeared in the United States as far south as California, Colorado, Missouri, Utah, Wisconsin, Iowa, Oregon, Illinois, Nebraska, and Arkansas.


Brad Goldpaint sends this picture of the auroras reflecting from Sparks Lake in central Oregon

Solar wind speed: 533.0 km/sec
density: 1.8 protons/cm3

Sunspot 1520 poses a continued threat for X-class solar flares. As the sunspot turns away from Earth, however, the chances of a geoeffective eruption are decreasing.

SUBSIDING STORM: The geomagnetic storm of July 14th through 16th is subsiding. Solar wind conditions are trending toward quiet, and Earth's magnetic field is responding by settling down. The remarkable 36-hour event was triggered by a CME impact on July 14th around 11 am PDT (1800 UT). When the CME first arrived on July 14th, its effect appeared weak. However, conditions in the wake of the CME soon become stormy. On July 14-16 Northern Lights appeared in the United States as far south as Oregon, California, Colorado, Missouri, Utah, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Washington, Illinois, Kansas, South Dakota, Nebraska, Michigan and Arkansas. When the CME first arrived on July 14th, its effect appeared weak. However, conditions in the wake of the CME soon become stormy. On July 14-16 Northern Lights appeared in the United States as far south as Oregon, California, Colorado, Missouri, Utah, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Washington, Illinois, Kansas, South Dakota, Nebraska, Michigan and Arkansas. Meanwhile in the southern hemisphere, the aurora australis has been sighted in New Zealand, Tasmania, and directly above the South Pole itself. The behemoth sunspot has a beta-gamma-delta magnetic field that harbors energy for more X-class solar flares. The odds of a geoeffective eruption are decreasing, however, as the sunspot turns toward Earth. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of M-flares and a 15% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed: 436.7 km/sec
density: 1.5 protons/cm3

Wednesday, 17 Jul 12 - SLOW EXPLOSION: Sunspot complex AR1520-1521 erupted on July 17th at 1715 UT. The M1-class explosion unfolded slowly over a period of hours. Slow explosions often produce CMEs, and this one was no exception; SOHO recorded the bright and massive cloud: movie. Update: According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will hit Venus on July 19th and could deliver a glancing blow to Earth on July 20th. The odds of more auroras tonight are low as the geomagnetic field continues to settle down. During the peak of the display on July 14th through 16th, Northern Lights appeared in the United States as far south as Oregon, California, Colorado, Missouri, Utah, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Wyoming, Washington, Illinois, Kansas, South Dakota, Nebraska, Michigan and Arkansas.

Solar wind speed: 468.2 km/sec
density: 0.7 protons/cm3

SLOW EXPLOSION: Sunspot complex AR1520-1521 erupted on July 17th, producing an M1-class flare that unfolded slowly over a period of hours. Slow explosions often produce CMEs, and this one was no exception. Click on the image to view a movie of the bright, massive cloud recorded by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory: According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will hit Venus on July 19th and could deliver a glancing blow to Earth on July 20th. Solar wind speed: 412.0 km/sec

But a Slow CME

Which means a longer duration of impact when it reaches earth.

July 20, 2012 – SPACE - ALMOST X-FLARE : Sunspot complex AR1520-1521 erupted again on July 19th, this time producing an M7-class solar flare that almost crossed the threshold into X-territory. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash: The explosion produced a bright coronal mass ejection: movie. The cloud should miss Earth. Although the explosion occurred on the other side of the sun’s western limb, our planet could feel some effects. The blast site is magnetically connected to Earth by backward-spiraling lines of magnetic force. Protons accelerated by the flare are being guided to us by those lines of magnetism, and a mild radiation storm is underway. –Space Weather

RADIATION STORM: A low-level radiation storm is underway as solar protons swarm around our planet. Ranked S1 on NOAA space weather scales, the storm poses no serious threat to astronauts or satellites. Nevertheless it is a nuisance. Minor radiation storms can cause occasional reboots of computers onboard spacecraft and add "snow" to spacecraft imaging systems. This SOHO coronagraph image of the sun, taken during the early hours of July 20th, is a good example: Each of the speckles in the image (a handful are circled) are caused by protons hitting the spacecraft's CCD camera. During minor storms it is possible to see through this kind of snow. During severe storms, such images become practically opaque.

The protons were accelerated toward Earth by an M7-class solar flare on July 19th. Although the blast site (sunspot AR1520) was on the farside of the sun, the protons were able to reach Earth anyway, guided toward our planet by backward-spiralling lines of magnetic force. A solar wind stream flowing from this coronal hole should reach Earth on or about July 21st.

Solar wind speed: 433.3 km/sec
density: 3.5 protons/cm3

A TASTE OF SOLAR MAX: Forecasters say solar maximum is still a year away. Earlier this month sky watchers got a taste of things to come when a powerful flare sparked Northern Lights over the United States as far south as Arkansas, Colorado and California.

CORONAL HOLE: A vast dark gap in the sun's atmosphere--a.k.a. "coronal hole" --is rotating onto the Earthside of the sun. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed the emerging structure on July 21st: Coronal holes are places where the sun's magnetic field opens up and allows the sun's atmosphere to boil away. The escaping gas forms a stream of solar wind. This coronal hole is perfectly positioned near the sun's equator to create a geoeffective stream--in other words, the solar wind stream will hit Earth directly. ETA: July 27 or 28. High latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on those dates.

Solar wind speed: 473.8 km/sec
density: 4.2 protons/cm3

July 23, 2012 – SPACE - A coronal mass ejection (CME) blasted away from the sun this morning with rare speed: 2900 km/s. CMEs moving this fast occur only once every 5 to 10 years. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded the cloud’s emergence on July 23rd starting around 0300 UT: The source of the CME was sunspot AR1520, which sparked many bright auroras earlier this month when it was on the Earthside of the sun. Now, however, the active region is transiting the sun’s farside, so this blast was not geoeffective. One can only imagine the geomagnetic storms such a fast CME could produce if it were heading our way. Stay tuned for additional analysis. –Space Weather

VERY FAST FARSIDE CME (UPDATED): On July 23rd, a coronal mass ejection (CME) blasted away from the sun with rare speed: 3400 km/s or 7.6 million mph. CMEs moving this fast occur only once every ~5 to 10 years. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded the cloud's rapid departure from the sun: The source of the CME was sunspot AR1520, which sparked many bright auroras earlier this month when it was on the Earthside of the sun. Now, however, the active region is transiting the sun's farside so this blast was not geoeffective. One can only imagine the geomagnetic storms such a fast CME could produce if it were heading our way.


This cme due to the location of this spot will be not geoeffective (farside west)

Latest Stereo Ahead C2:
http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/browse/2012/07/23/ahead/cor2/512/

Latest Stereo Ahead EUVi 195 (farside west):
http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/browse/2012/07/23/ahead/euvi/195/512/


Helioviewer:
http://helioviewer.org/


Close Up CME SDO AIA 304:
http://helioviewer.org/?movieId=1Sj55

My Solar Alerts:
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.de/

MAGNETIC BRIDGE: Sunspots AR1528 and AR1529 appear to be far apart. More than 200,000 km of stellar surface separate the two. Nevertheless, they are connected by a tubular bridge of magnetism. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) photographed the vast structure on July 24th: This extreme ultraviolet image traces the bridge via the glow of hot plasma it contains. Material can flow back and forth inside the tube, allowing one sunspot to respond to what the other is doing.

Researchers once thought that sunspots were independent operators, but SDO has shown over and over again that widely-spaced sunspots can be linked. An eruption in one can set off an explosion in another, leading to a chain reaction that can spread around the circumference of the sun.

Solar wind speed: 515.0 km/sec
density: 1.7 protons/cm3

VERY FAST FARSIDE CME: A coronal mass ejection (CME) blasted away from the sun this morning with rare speed: 2930 km/s or 6.5 million mph. CMEs moving this fast occur only once every ~5 to 10 years. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded the cloud's emergence on July 23rd starting around 0300 UT:
The source of the CME was sunspot AR1520, which sparked many bright auroras earlier this montth when it was on the Earthside of the sun. Now, however, the active region is transiting the sun's farside so this blast was not geoeffective. One can only imagine the geomagnetic storms such a fast CME could produce if it were heading our way. Stay tuned for additional analysis.

Update: According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, this CME will miss all of the solar system's inner planets.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: A stream of solar wind is heading for Earth, due to arrive on July 28-30. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on those dates in case the impact sparks geomagnetic storms. A solar wind stream flowing from this coronal hole should reach Earth on July 28-30.

M-CLASS FLARE: Newly-emerging sunspot AR1532 unleashed an M2.7-class solar flare on July 27th at approximately 1726 UT. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the extreme ultraviolet flash: The explosion does not appear to have produced a substantial CME. Even if it did, Earth is not in the line of fire. This sunspot will, however, become more geoeffective in the days ahead as it slowly turns toward Earth. A solar wind stream flowing from this coronal hole should reach Earth on July 29-30.

INCOMING CME, WEAK IMPACT EXPECTED: A coronal mass ejection (CME) produced by Saturday's M6-class flare is heading toward Earth. According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the cloud could deliver a glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field on July 31st around 1500 UT (+/- 7 hours). Click to view the animated forecast track: This is a slow-moving CME. The cloud's low speed (382 km/s estimated) combined with its glancing trajectory suggests a weak impact is in the offing. Nevertheless, polar geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives. Aurora alerts: text, voice.

The CME will also hit Mercury, probably with greater force. Mercury's planetary magnetic field is only ~10% as strong as Earth's, so Mercury is not well protected from CMEs. When the clouds hit, they can actually scour atoms off Mercury's surface, adding material to Mercury's super-thin atmosphere and comet-like tail. A solar wind stream flowing from this coronal hole should reach Earth on July 29-30.
FOGGY SUNSPOTS: Living in a fog can have its advantages. For one thing, it allows you to see big sunspots. Mila Zinkova of San Francisco, California, sends this picture of the foggy sunset on July 28th:

SUBSIDING MAELSTROM: Sunspot AR1532 has been active, producing an M-class flare almost every day since it appeared last Friday. On July 28th, amateur astronomer Viljo Nylund of Finland photographed the maelstrom of hot plasma surrounding the sunspot's dark core:

Nylund used an H-alpha telescope tuned to the red glow of solar hydrogen. "The area around AR1532 looked very active and interesting, so I decided to try my luck. I made an inverted version of the image to highlight the 3D feel."

The maelstrom might be subsiding. A full day has gone by without a significant flare, and the active region's underlying spotted area is decreasing. NOAA forecasters estimate the chances of an M-class flare today to be 35%

Solar wind speed up: 428.5 km/sec

CRACKLING SUNSPOT: Newly-numberd sunspot AR1538 is small but active. In an 18-hour period on July 30-31, it popped off more than 15 minor flares. Watch the sunspot crackle in this movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory: The nearly-constant flaring is a sign of tension in the sunspot's magnetic field. It is not, however, a sure-fire sign that a major eruption is in the offing. On the contrary, a large number of minor flares might provide a degree of "magnetic relief" that makes a major eruption less likely. The most likely source of a major flare today is sunspot AR1535, located more than 400,000 km north of crackling sunspot AR1538. AR1535 is relatively quiet but has a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for strong M-class eruptions. Sunspot AR1535 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares.

Solar wind speed: 448.7 km/sec

ERUPTING MAGNETIC FILAMENT: A filament of magnetism connecting sunspots AR1538 and AR1540 rose up and erupted on August 4th. Look for the extreme UV glow of hot plasma in this movie recorded by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:As the filament ripped through the sun's atmosphere, it propelled a massive CME into space: movie. http://www.spaceweather.com/images2012/04aug12/cme_anim.gif

The expanding cloud does not appear to be on a collision course with Earth, although a glancing blow might be possible 2 to 3 days hence. Stay tuned for further analysis. http://www.spaceweather.com/

Sunspot 1538 has a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares.

CHANCE OF STORMS: NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on August 7/8. That's when a coronal mass ejection (CME) hurled into space by a filament eruption on Aug. 4 could deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field.

Solar wind speed: 404.4 km/sec on the increase

NOAA forecasters estimate a 15% to 30% chance of more geomagnetic activity today as effects from the CME wane. Solar wind speed: 339.6 km/sec

PLANETS ALIGN THIS WEEKEND: The Moon, Venus, and Jupiter are lining up in the eastern sky this weekend--right in the middle of the Perseid meteor shower. It's a must-see event. A new ScienceCast video from NASA previews the display.

PERSEID METEOR SHOWER: The annual Perseid meteor shower is underway. International observers are reporting 15+ meteors per hour in pre-dawn skies as Earth enters a broad stream of debris from parent comet Swift-Tuttle. The shower has been building since late July. Over the past two weeks, NASA's All-Sky Meteor Network has recorded more than 57 Perseid fireballs. Their orbits are shown here, with Earth's position marked in red: