SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image

December 25, 2011 – SPACE - Dec. 25th began with a pair of magnetic filaments erupting in the sun’s northern hemisphere followed by a sequence of C-flares from sunspot 1385 in the sun’s southern hemisphere. Both halves of the sun are rocking on Christmas. Coronagraph images from STEREO-A and -B suggest a possible Earth-directed CME A filament of magnetism connected to sunspot AR1386 erupted during the early hours of Dec. 24th. Extreme UV-wavelength cameras onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the picturesque blast. –Space Weather

CMEs TARGET EARTH, MARS: The odds of a geomagnetic storm on Dec. 28th are improving with the launch of two CMEs toward Earth in less than 24 hours. NASA's STEREO-B spacecraft photographed this one on Dec. 26th:

According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the cloud should squarely strike Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 28th at 20:22 UT (+/- 7 hours). Another CME could deliver a glancing blow a few hours earlier on the same date. The double impact is expected to spark mild-to-moderate geomagnetic storms at high latitudes.

According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME cloud should squarely strike Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 28th at 20:22 UT (+/- 7 hours). Another CME could deliver a glancing blow a few hours earlier on the same date. The double impact is expected to spark mild-to-moderate geomagnetic storms at high latitudes.

Mars is also in the line of fire. The first of the two CMEs is squarely directed toward the Red Planet--estimated time of arrival: Dec. 30th at 1800 UT. Using onboard radiation sensors, NASA's Curiosity rover might be able to sense the CME when it passes the rover's spacecraft en route to Mars.

CHANCE OF MAGNETIC STORMS: NOAA forecasters estimate a 20% to 40% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Dec. 28-29 in response to the arrival of one or more CMEs. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras. Aurora alerts: text, voice.

ON MARS, TOO: Sunspot 1387 erupted on Christmas day, hurling a coronal mass ejection (CME) directly toward Mars. According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, impact will occur on Dec. 30th at 1800 UT (+/- 7 hr). Click to view an anomated forecast track:

Unlike Earth, Mars does not have a global magnetic field. Instead, the Red Planet has "magnetic umbrellas." These are fossil remnants of an ancient global magnetic field that decayed billions of years ago. When a CME hits Mars, the action happens in the umbrellas' canopies. Because the umbrellas are scattered around Mars, martian auroras can theoretically occur even near the equator.

SUDDEN IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE: Today around 1320 UT, a wave of ionization swept through the high atmosphere over Europe after sunspot AR1389 unleashed another M2-class solar flare. "There was a very clear sudden ionospheric disturbance on my VLF radio instruments," reports Rob Stammes, who sends these data from the Polar Light Center in Lofoten, Norway:

LAST AURORAS OF 2011? A minor solar wind stream is buffeting Earth's magnetic field with just enough force to ignite Northern Lights around the Arctic Circle. Hanneke Luijting of Tromsø, Norway, photographed the scene on Dec. 30th


"The sun is below the horizon where we are located north of the Arctic Circle," says Stammes. "This event shows we still have some contact with the sun." NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of more M-flares during the next 24 hours. There is also a 5% chance of X-flares.

January 1, 2012 – SUDDEN IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE: Today around 1320 UT, a wave of ionization swept through the high atmosphere over Europe after sunspot AR1389 unleashed another M2-class solar flare. “There was a very clear sudden ionospheric disturbance on my VLF radio instruments,” reports Rob Stammes, who sends these data from the Polar Light Center in Lofoten, Norway. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of more M-flares during the next 24 hours. There is also a 5% chance of X-flares. Solar winds from the coronal hole seen below should hit Earth on Jan. 2. –Space Weather

FARSIDE ERUPTION: Departing sunspot AR1384, currently located just behind the sun's western limb, erupted today around 14:45 UT. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed the debris flying over the edge of the solar disk: The eruption appears to be connected to magnetic filaments snaking over the horizon to the Earthside of the sun. Will this event affect our planet? Probably not. It is located too far from disk center. Stay tuned, however, to see what kind of CME the blast produced.


Cameras belonging to NASA's All-Sky Fireball Network also recorded the fireball from multiple locations. An orbit calculated from those data show that the fireball was a random meteoriod hailing from the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter. It hit Earth's atmosphere at 26 km/s (58,000 mph), which is relatively slow compared to other meteoroids, and disintegrated 82 km above Earth's surface.

QUADRANTID METEOR SHOWER: Earth is about to pass through a stream of debris from 2003 EH1, a comet fragment that produces the annual Quadrantid meteor shower. Forecasters expect the shower to peak around 07:20 UT (02:20 am EST) on Wednesday morning, January 4th. At maximum, as many as 100 meteors/hour could emerge from a radiant near Polaris, the north star.

Brian Emfinger of Ozark, Arkansas, photographed this one on Jan. 2nd:

INCOMING CME? A magnetic filament in the sun's northern hemisphere erupted on Jan. 5th and hurled a CME in the general direction of Earth. At first it appeared that the cloud would sail north of Earth and completely miss our planet. Subsequent work by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab suggests a different outcome: the CME might deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on Jan. 7th. Click to view an animated forecast track:

NOAA forecasters were already calling for a 40% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Jan. 7-8 in response to a high-speed solar wind stream. The arrival of a CME would boost the chances even more. http://www.spaceweather.com/

BE ALERT FOR MOON HALOES: Across much of the United States, there's not much snow on the ground. There is, however, ice in the air. You can see it around the Moon: Moon haloes are caused by ice crystals in cirrus clouds 5 to 10 km above the ground. Crystals catch the light of the Moon and bend its rays into a luminous ring, as shown above. With the full Moon only two days away, now is a good time to be alert for Moon haloes.

WEEKEND SUNSPOT: Sunspots store energy in the high-tension twists and turns of their magnetic fields. During the late hours of Jan. 9th, the magnetic field of sunspot 1395 untwisted. The result was a C2.6-class solar flare and this movie from the Solar Dynamics Observatory: The eruption did not produce a significant CME. Nor did the flash of UV radiation make big waves of ionization in Earth's atmosphere. It was not a geoeffective event.

Having untwisted, the magnetic field of AR1395 is now temporarily relaxed. Solar activity remains low and AR1395 is unlikely to break the quiet.

CANIS LUNUS? According to folklore, this week's full Moon is the Wolf Moon. Native Americans named it after packs of wolves they once heard singing in the deep snows of January.

FARSIDE ERUPTION: Today, Jan. 12th, between 10:00 and 1300 UT, NASA's STEREO-Behind spacecraft observed a significant eruption on the farside of the sun. Although the blast was eclipsed by the edge of the solar disk, it nevertheless produced a long-duration X-ray flare (C3-class) detectable from Earth. A movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows some of the debris flying over the NE limb: The blast site is not far behind the eastern limb, and it is only ~two days away from rotating onto the Earthside of the sun. By this weekend, we'll get a direct look at the active region. Perhaps it will break the recent string of mostly quiet days and low solar activity.

Solar wind
speed: 510.0 km/sec
density: 4.7 protons/cm3

BE ALERT FOR MOON HALOES: With the Moon nearly full, this week is a good time to see a Moon halo. Ruslan Ahmetsafin photographed this speciman over Aykhal, Russia, on Jan 8th: Moon haloes are caused by ice crystals in cirrus clouds 5 to 10 km above the ground. Crystals catch the light of the Moon and bend its rays into a luminous ring. Because the air is always freezing 10 km above the ground, these haloes may appear at any time of year, over any part of Earth. Nevertheless, they tend to favor northern winter. So look up from the snow (if you have any) to see what the ice might be doing in the air overhead.

January 19, 2012 – CHANCE OF AURORAS: NOAA forecasters estimate a 15% to 20% chance of polar geomagnetic storms during the next 24 hours in response to a possible glancing blow from a CME. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras. Earth’s atmosphere has been puffing up in response to increasing levels of UV radiation from sunspots. This is good news for satellite operators, because a puffed up atmosphere helps clean up low-Earth orbit. Meanwhile, sunspot 1401 poses a threat for some M-class solar flares. –Space Watch

Update: EARTH-DIRECTED SOLAR FLARE: Active sunspot 1401 erupted today, Jan. 19th, between 15:15 and 16:30 UT. The long-duration blast produced an M3-class solar flare and a CME that appears to be heading toward Earth.

COMET CORPSES IN THE SOLAR WIND: A paper published in today's issue of Science raises an intriguing new possibility--the presence of abundant comet corpses in the solar wind. The new research is based on dramatic images of a comet disintegrating in the sun's atmosphere last July. [full story]

INCOMING CME: Active sunspot 1401 erupted yesterday, Jan. 19th around 16:30 UT, producing an M3-class solar flare and a full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME). The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded the cloud expanding almost directly toward Earth:

Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives this weekend. Their animated forecast track predicts an impact on Jan. 21st at 22:30 UT (+/- 7 hrs).

The cloud is also heading for Mars, due to hit the Red Planet on Jan. 24th. NASA's Curiosity rover, en route to Mars now, is equipped to study solar storms and might be able to detect a change in the energetic particle environment when the CME passes by.

WHILE WAITING FOR THE CME... An incoming CME of Jan. 19th (see below) has not yet arrived. Nevertheless, auroras are already dancing around the Arctic Circle. This was the scene last night over Chatanika, Alaska: Indeed, it could be a preview. NOAA forecasters are estimating as much as a 25% chance of polar geomagnetic storms when the CME arrives during the next ~36 hours. High latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras.

http://www.SolarStormWarning.com - Solar Storm Warnings from NASA (for reasons unknown) are not being taken seriously by the general public. There are hundreds of millions who are complacent, and when the time comes, will put demands on their neighbors supplies because people such as (possibly yourself) were unconcerned about providing their own lifeline, despite you had a heads up.

This is a classic example where mother nature culls people such as yourself, it's all in the natural scheme of things.

Article from NASA 2006: http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2006/10mar_stormwarning/

The solar storm of 1859, also known as the Solar Superstorm: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/06may_carringtonflare/

There seems to be some disagreement concerning CME arrival forecasts between NOAA and NASA. NOAA has pushed back the anticipated arrival time to late on 1/22 or early 1/23. According to Spaceweather.com, NASA Goddard is still projecting arrival at Earth for 1/21 @22:30 UTC. Even with a 7-hour margin of error they don't quite match up.

NOAA Enlil CME mdl: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/cme-based/

NOAA forecast:

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels during day 1 (21 January) and most of day 2 (22 January). Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels late on day 2 and day 3 (23 January) with a chance for minor storm levels due to the arrival of the halo-CME observed on 19 January. There will be a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit during the period.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/today.html

NASA cygnet streamer:: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23%2000:44:00&window=-1&cygnetId=261

3 CMEs: on the 16th, 18th and 19th

16th: http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/01/long-duration-flare-and-cme.html
the shock from the Jan 16th CME: http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/01/cme-arrives-as-expected.html

18th: http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/01/southern-cme-solar-activity-update-for.html

It is unclear if the CME from the southern region on the 18th will give a glancing blow or not or if it will merge in space with the faster CME from the 19th though, this is what we expect will happen. There has been almost triple the amount of predicted sunspots already.

There were two CMEs on the 19th within a couple of hours. Both had earth-directed elements (though they were in different general directions); but as the second was more powerful they overlapped and merged. These are the two seen on the Enlil model. More on this from the SOHO website:http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/pickoftheweek/


19th: http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/01/major-event-lde-m-flare-with-cme.html

An active region on the Sun unleashed two blasts in quick succession (Jan. 19, 2012), which have sent particle clouds headed towards Earth. The images combine the wider field of view from SOHO's C2 coronagraph with the Sun itself as seen in extreme UV light by Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The initial burst above the Sun is from the sar side of the Sun and not headed our way. The next two bursts, one quickly following the other, are from the bright active region seen near the 10 o'clock position. A series of coronal loops rise up above the active region after these events. The impact on the geomagnetic storm Earth may cause some bright auroras. The video covers about 24 hours of activity.

Solar wind prediction: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/cme-based/

Enlil CME model from NOAA: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/cme-based/


1/21/12 6.2 offshore Chiapas, Mexico

ALMOST-X FLARE AND CME (UPDATED): This morning, Jan. 23rd around 0359 UT, big sunspot 1402 erupted, producing a long-duration M9-class solar flare. The explosion's M9-ranking puts it on the threshold of being an X-flare, the most powerful kind. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the flare's extreme ultraviolet flash: The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and the STEREO-Behind spacecraft have both detected a CME rapidly emerging from the blast site. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab estimate a velocity of 2200 km. There is little doubt that the cloud is heading in the general direction of Earth. A preliminary inspection of SOHO/STEREO imagery suggests that the CME will deliver a strong glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on Jan. 24-25 as it sails mostly north of our planet.

JAN. 22ND CME IMPACT: Arriving a little later than expected, a coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field at 0617 UT on Jan. 22nd. According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME strongly compressed Earth's magnetic field and briefly exposed satellites in geosynchronous orbit to solar wind plasma. For the next 24 hours, Earth's magnetic field reverberated from the impact, stirring bright auroras around the Arctic Circle. Bjørn Jørgensen observed this display from Tromsø, Norway:
NOAA forecasters estimate a 10% - 25% chance of continued geomagnetic storms tonight as effects from the CME impact subside. The odds will increase again on Jan. 24-25 as a new CME (from today's M9-clare) approaches Earth. High-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras.

The Jan. 22nd CME also disturbed Earth's ionosphere. In Atlanta, Georgia, radio engineer Pieter Ibelings monitored a 4.5 MHz CODAR (coastal radar) signal as it bounced off layers of ionization along the US east coast. "The moment of impact can be clearly seen on the CODAR radar plot," he points out:
"The CODAR transmitters are located all around the coast and are used for mapping the ocean currents to a distance of about 200 miles," Ibelings explains. "These signals also propagate through the ionosphere so they can be picked up all around the world. The signals are almost perfect for ionospheric sounding since they are linear chirps. I capture the chirp with a receiver locked to GPS both in frequency and time. I then de-chirp the waveform so I can extract the time of arrival information at my location."

The CODAR echoes show ionization layers shifting vertical position by some hundreds of kilometers, changes that surely affected the propagation of HF radio signals in the aftermath of the impact. More information about Ibelings' observations may be found here. http://www.rfspace.com/RFSPACE/BLOG/Entries/2012/1/22_CODAR_Ionospheric_Observations_during_the_CME_Impact_of_JAN_22,_2012.html

Article:
Huge Solar Eruption Sparks Strongest Radiation Storm in 7 Years

A powerful solar eruption is expected to blast a stream of charged particles toward Earth tomorrow (Jan. 24), as the strongest radiation storm since 2005 rages on the sun. Early this morning (0359 GMT Jan. 23, which corresponds to late Sunday, Jan. 22 at 10:59 p.m. EST), NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory caught an extreme ultraviolet flash from a huge eruption on the sun , according to the skywatching website Spaceweather.com.

The solar flare spewed from sunspot 1402, a region of the sun that has become increasingly active lately. Several NASA satellites, including the Solar Dynamics Observatory, the Solar Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), and the Stereo spacecraft observed the massive sun storm. This SDO image (AIA 193) shows an M9-class solar flare erupting on the Sun's northeastern hemisphere at 03:49 UT on Jan. 23, 2012... just 4 days after a previous strong CME that sparked aurora around the world on the 22nd. More geomagnetic activity is expected for the 24th. http://www.space.com/14319-huge-solar-eruption-sparks-radiation-storm.html

From Dutch Sinse

Todays info VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/user/dutchsinse
1/23/2012 -- Earth directed -- Large CME (coronal mass ejection) and Solar flare erupt from sun --

Vid of the solar eruption: http://www.space.com/14319-huge-solar-eruption-sparks-radiation-storm.html

CME IMPACT: As expected, a CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Jan. 24th at approximately 1500 UT (10 am EST). Geomagnetic storms are likely in the hours ahead. If it's dark where you live, go outside and look for auroras.

In Lofoton, Norway, the CME's arrival produced a surge in ground currents outside the laboratory of Rob Stammes:
"The expected CME arrived and showed up on my instruments at 15.10 UTC--a fantastic shockwave followed by a magnetic storm," says Stammes. "This could be a happy day for many aurora watchers."
The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and NASA's STEREO-B spacecraft detected a CME rapidly emerging from the blast site: movie. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth on Jan. 24 at 14:18UT (+/- 7 hours). Their animated forecast track shows that Mars is in the line of fire, too; the CME will hit the Red Planet during the late hours of Jan. 25.

This is a relatively substantial and fast-moving (2200 km/s) CME. Spacecraft in geosynchronous, polar and other orbits passing through Earth's ring current and auroral regions could be affected by the cloud's arrival. In addition, strong geomagnetic storms are possible, so high-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

The largest solar radiation outburst in six years is on its way to Earth and will hit our planet with high-energy atomic particles at around 2 pm GMT. [link to wwp.greenwichmeantime.com]

The major impact will occur in the North Pole area: routes of some near North Pole flights have been changed.

The functioning of the ISS will not be affected. Taking into consideration the prognosis for the solar storm, the ISS crew will not even have to take additional radiation security measures.

Massive ejections of plasma, or coronal mass, from the Sun have often resulted in communication and other satellites, as well as ground communications facilities failing. They can cause magnetic storms but bring no evident harm to the health of the planet’s population.

The first solar storm this year was registered on January 19 by NASA’s extra-magnetospheric satellites at the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory SOHO, Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory STEREO, and Advanced Composition Explorer ACE. Occurring after two storm-free months, that storm was ranked a relatively weak grade 5.

https://rt.com/news/solar-storm-protonic-event-551/

MORE SOLAR ACTIVITY: Sunspot AR1402, the source of this week's powerful M9-class solar flare, is acting up again. On Jan. 26th between 0100 UT and 0600 UT, a sequence of C-class magnetic eruptions around the active region hurled a bright coronal mass ejection over the sun's north pole, shown here in a coronagraph image from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory: The cloud is not heading toward Earth, at least not directly. This and future eruptions from AR1402 are unlikely to be geoeffective as the sunspot is turning away from our planet. By week's end it will be on the far side of the sun, blasting its CMEs toward planets on the opposite side of the solar system.

AURORAS OVER THE USA: The geomagnetic storm of Jan. 24th died out before night fell over North America--or did it? According to reports still trickling in, auroras were reported not only in Canada, but also in some of the lower 48 US states. More auroras could be in the offing. A solar wind stream is heading for Earth, due to arrive on Jan. 28-29. NOAA forecasters estimate a 15% chance of geomagnetic storms at high latitudes.

ASTEROID FLYBY: Newly-discovered asteroid 2012 BX34 is flying past Earth today only 77,000 km (0.2 lunar distances) away. There is no danger of a collision with the 14-meter wide space rock. Advanced amateur astronomers might be able to observe the flyby as the bus-sized asteroid brightens to 14th magnitude just before closest approach on Jan. 27th at 1530 UT. http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2012%20BX34;orb=1

Linda posted this magnificent video link on another thread: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piYiyyBxRIo&feature=uploademail
Uploaded by SolarWatcher on Jan 27, 2012
X 2 Class Solar Flare & S2 Radiation Storm
Active Region 11402 located on the northwestern limb, unleashed a major X1.7 Solar Flare at 18:35 UTC. S2 level Radiation Storm threshold has been exceeded, R3 Level Radio Blackout, 100 MeV proton spike is in progress and a 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) was reported. Immediately after this flare a Full Halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed and components may brush the earths magnetic field Jan 30th.

Earthquake Forecasting Channel
https://www.youtube.com/thebarcaroller
Earthquake Reporting Channel
https://www.youtube.com/user/EQReporter
solarwatcher website
http://solarwatcher.net
Soho Website
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/
Solar Soft website
http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/
WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/cme-based/
Helioviewer
http://www.helioviewer.org/
Quality Solar Website
http://www.solarham.com
Estimated Planetary K index information
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/kp_...
GOES Xray Flux Data
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5mBL.html
Sunspot Information from Solar Monitor
http://www.solarmonitor.org/
Quality Weather Website
http://www.westernpacificweather.com
Space Weather Website
http://www.spaceweather.com/

Music used is Sunshine by John Murphy

Sunspot 1402 produced a major X1.7 Solar Flare on Jan 27, 2012. A bright Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was also produced, but so far looks to be directed mostly to the northwest. Movie and Images by SDO, EVE, Lasco. FRIDAY X-FLARE: Departing sunspot 1402 unleashed an X2-class solar flare on Jan. 27th at 18:37 UT. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:

Sunspot 1402 is rotating onto the far side of the sun, so the blast site was not facing Earth at the time of the explosion. Nevertheless, energetic protons accelerated by the blast are now surrounding our planet, and an S2-class radiation storm is in progress.

The explosion also produced a spectacular coronal mass ejection (CME). A movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory shows the cloud racing away from the sun at 2500 km/s or 5.6 million mph. Work by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab shows that the CME will just miss Earth when its edge passes by our planet on Jan. 30-31. Click to view an animated forecast track: