SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image

BIG SUNSPOT, CHANCE OF FLARES: Sunspot AR1726 is turning away from Earth, but the threat of flares is not subsiding. The sunspot has a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for powerful eruptions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of M-class flares and a 15% chance of X-flares on April 25th. Sunspot AR1726 has a delta-class magnetic field that poses a continued threat for X-class flares. Solar wind flowing from this major coronal hole could reach Earth on April 26-27.

Solar wind speed: 453.9 km/sec

GEOMAGNETIC UNREST: Today, a fast but thin solar wind stream is buffeting Earth's magnetic field. This is causing some geomagnetic unrest, including a G1-class storm during the early hours of April 26th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras shining through the full moonlight. Earth is entering a solar wind stream flowing from large and complex coronal hole.

Solar wind speed: 575.0 km/sec

SLIGHT LUNAR ECLIPSE: Last night, the full Moon over Africa, Europe, Asia and Australia passed through the outer edge of Earth's shadow. It was the slightest of eclipses, with less than 2% of the lunar disk falling into darkness. Nevertheless, many sky watchers noticed, such as amateur astronomer Walter Borghini. He sends this picture of the shadow-zone from Casasco (AL), Italy: As for lunar eclipses, this is as good as it gets until April 15, 2014. On that date, the the Moon will be fully engulfed by Earth's shadow and the lunar disk will turn a dark shade of sunset red. The total eclipse will be visible from the Americas and Australia: map. Until then, browse the gallery for images of last night's partial shadowfall:

Spaceweather Video: https://www.youtube.com/user/Suspicious0bservers?feature=watch

DOUBLE FLARE THREAT: Two sunspots now facing Earth pose a threat for geoeffective flares. AR1731 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that habore energy for M-class flares, while AR1730 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field capable of unleashing even stronger X-class flares. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the growth of these sunspots over the past 48 hours: NOAA forecasters estimate a 5% chance of X-flares today, April 30th. Normally, X-flares are common around the peak of the solar cycle, yet there has not been a single X-flare all year. Perhaps we're overdue.

CHANCE OF FLARES: Will May begin with a solar flare? Two sunspots (AR1730 and AR1731) have 'delta-class' magnetic fields that harbor energy for strong eruptions. NOAA forecasters put the odds of an M-class solar flare today at 40%.

FARSIDE ERUPTION: Actually, May did begin with a solar flare--on the farside of the sun. An active region located behind the sun's eastern limb erupted during the early hours of May 1st, hurling a plume of red-hot debris into space: Coronagraph images from NASA's twin STEREO probes confirm that a CME emerged from the blast site. Earth was not in the line of fire. Next week, however, we might be as the sun's rotation turns the active region toward our planet.

BIG SUNSPOTS: The sun is peppered with several large sunspots. One of them, AR1731, has an unstable delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for strong eruptions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% chance of M-flares and a 5% chance of X-flares on May 3rd.

STRONG FLARE: An active region just over the sun's eastern limb exploded today, May 3rd @ 1730 UT, producing a strong M5-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory caught a plume of hot plasma flying up from the blast site: This is the second time in three days that this same farside active region has unleashed a strong flare. The sun's rotation is carrying the sunspot around the bend, and it should emerge into view from Earth during the weekend. After that, Earth-directed flares are possible. An uptick in geoeffective solar activity appears to be in the offing.

M5 SOLAR TORNADO: Sunspot group AR1739, just now emerging over the sun's northeastern limb, erupted on May 3rd, producing an M5-class solar flare and a "solar tornado." The explosion also hurled a bright coronal mass ejection (CME) into space. Traveling almost 1300 km/s, the electrified cloud is expected to sweep past a couple of NASA spacecraft (EPOXI and Spitzer) on May 7th. No planets, however, were in the line of fire.

GREAT HORNED SUNSPOT: Around the world, amateur astronomers are snapping pictures of behemoth sunspot AR1734 as it crosses the solar disk. In Buffalo, New York, photographer Alan Friedman noticed something when he rotated his picture 90 degrees. "Sunspot 1734 has a definite owlish look!"The owl could be poised to explode. Sunspot AR1734 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares, almost-certainly Earth-directed because the sunspot is facing our planet. NOAA forecasters estimate a 45% chance of M-flares on May 6th. Three sunspots have beta-gamma magnetic fields that harbor energy for M-class solar flares: AR1731, AR1734, and AR1739. Solar wind flowing from coronal hole should reach Earth on ~May 6-7.

Solar wind speed: 421.9 km/sec

M5 SOLAR TORNADO: Sunspot group AR1739 erupted on May 3rd, producing an M5-class solar flare and a "solar tornado."

Explanation: A tremendous explosion has occurred in the nearby universe and major telescopes across Earth and space are investigating. Dubbed GRB 130427A, the gamma-ray burst was first seen by the Earth-orbiting Swift satellite in high energy X-rays and quickly reported down to Earth. Within three minutes, the half-meter ISON telescope in New Mexico found the blast in visible light, noted its extreme brightness, and relayed more exact coordinates.


http://gcn.gsfc.nasa.gov/gcn3/14526.gcn3
TITLE: GCN CIRCULAR
NUMBER: 14526
SUBJECT: GRB 130427A: Predictions about the occurrence of a supernova
DATE: 13/05/02 09:15:09 GMT
FROM: Remo Rufinni at ICRA <ruffini@icra.it>

R. Ruffini, C.L. Bianco, M. Enderli, M. Muccino, A.V. Penacchioni, G.B. Pisani, J.A. Rueda, N. Sahakyan, Y. Wang, L. Izzo report:

The late x ray observations of GRB 130427A by Swift-XRT clearly evidence a pattern typical of a family of GRBs associated to supernova (SN) following the Induce Gravitational Collapse (IGC) paradigm (Rueda & Ruffini 2012; Pisani et al. 2013). We assume that the luminosity of the possible SN associated to GRB 130427A would be the one of 1998bw, as found in the IGC sample described in Pisani et al. 2013. Assuming the intergalactic absorption in the I-band (which corresponds to the R-band rest-frame) and the intrinsic one, assuming a Milky Way type for the host galaxy, we obtain a magnitude expected for the peak of the SN of I = 22 - 23 occurring 13-15 days after the GRB trigger, namely between the 10th and the 12th of May 2013.

Further optical and radio observations are encouraged.

May 9, 2013 – AUSTRALIA - The moon will block the sun in a potentially spectacular solar eclipse this week — a celestial event that will transform the sun into a cosmic “ring of fire” in the daytime sky. The ring-shaped solar eclipse, known as an annular eclipse, will occur Thursday and Friday Eastern Time. Weather permitting; the eclipse will be visible in certain parts of Australia and the Southern Pacific Ocean, where the local time will be Friday. “Solar eclipses can be inspirational to students and others, so it is interesting to have everyone view the eclipse, but only safe methods of viewing should be used,” Jay Pasachoff, an astronomer at Williams College and chairman of the International Astronomical Union’s working group on eclipses, said in a statement. While nearly 95 percent of the sun will be covered by the moon at the eclipse’s peak, the sky will not be noticeably darker to the naked eye at any point, explained Williams College officials in Williamstown, Mass. For this reason, special protective lenses, camera and telescope filters and other methods of protection should be used in order to safely watch the eclipse even during full annularity, when the sun is silhouetting the moon. The path of annularity passes through parts of Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands and Western Australia, the Northern Territory and Queensland in Australia. Other nearby parts of the world will be able to see a partial solar eclipse, if weather permits. The Hawaiian Islands, other parts of Australia, the southern Philippines, eastern Indonesia, other areas in Papua New Guinea and a small part of New Zealand will get at least a partial show, Williams College officials said. During annular solar eclipses, the moon casts a shadow on the face of the Earth when it passes between the planet and the star. Because of its orbit, however, the moon still appears about 4.5 percent smaller than the sun, creating the distinct ring in the sky, Joe Rao, a Space.com contributor and meteorologist said. This week’s solar eclipse comes on the heels of a partial lunar eclipse that shadowed the moon above Central Asia, Western Australia, Eastern Europe and Africa. Another minor lunar eclipse will occur on May 24. These aren’t the only eclipses of 2013. On Nov. 3, a rare hybrid solar eclipse — an annular eclipse that transitions into a total eclipse — will be visible in the northern Atlantic Ocean and into equatorial Africa. –Science NBC http://science.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/05/06/18087999-solar-eclipse-set-to-turn-sun-into-ring-of-fire-this-week?lite

MAGNETIC ACTIVITY: A ragged, dynamic filament of magnetism is dancing along the sun's southwestern limb today. It is so large, more than 250,000 km from end to end, that amateur astronomers are able to see it in great detail using backyard solar telescopes. John Stetson sends this snapshot from Falmouth, Maine: The magnetic underpinnings of this arching prominence may be connected to nearby sunspot AR1736, which is itself unstable and poses a threat for M-class solar flares. If the anchor is unstable, the overlying structure could collapse. Observers with solar telescopes are encouraged to monitor the southwestern limb for developments. Sunspot AR1736 has a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. Solar wind flowing from coronal hole should reach Earth on May 13-14.

"RING OF FIRE" SOLAR ECLIPSE: As the sun rose over Australia on Friday morning, May 10th, the solar disk turned into a ring of fire. The day began with an annular solar eclipse: Nicole Hollenbeck took the picture from inside the narrow path of annularity about 70km south of Newman, Australia. At the time, more than 95% of the sun's diameter was covered by the Moon. In an annular eclipse the Moon is not quite big enough to cover the entire solar disk. A blinding ring of solar fire juts out around the Moon, overwhelming the sun's delicate corona.

M-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: A sunspot located just behind the sun's northeastern limb erupted during the early hours of May 10th, producing an M3-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Dynamics Observatory recorded the explosion's extreme ultraviolet flash: movie. The farside active region will turn toward Earth in the days ahead. Solar wind speed: 450.8 km/sec - Solar wind flowing from coronal hole should reach Earth on May 14-15

FILAMENT ERUPTION: An unstable filament of magnetism on the Earthside of the sun erupted during the early hours of May 12th. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the blast: The erupting filament did not spark a significant solar flare (that is, there was no strong flash of X-radiation), but it did hurl part of itself into space. SOHO photographed a bright coronal mass ejection (CME) emerging from the blast site: movie. The CME could deliver a slight, glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on May 15th. Emerging sunspots AR1745 and AR1746 pose a threat for M-class solar flares.

FANTASTIC SUNRISE: The sunrise over Australia on Friday, May 10th, was a little ... unusual. Tony O'Brien photographed what happened from a spot south of the town of Newman: The sun had turned into a "ring of fire" during an annular solar eclipse. At the moment of O'Brien's snapshot, more than 95% of the sun's diameter was covered by the Moon. "I travelled a full day to see this annular eclipse--and it was worth the trip," he says. "It was a fantastic event." In an annular eclipse the Moon is not quite big enough to cover the entire solar disk. A blinding ring of solar fire juts out around the Moon, overwhelming the sun's delicate corona. It may not be the same as totality, but annularity has a charm and beauty all its own.

GOES 15 X-Ray Events 1-8A

The GOES X-ray flux plot contains 1 minute averages of solar X-rays in the 1-8 Angstrom (0.1-0.8 nm) and 0.5-4.0 Angstrom (0.05-0.4 nm) passbands. Data from the SWPC Primary GOES X-ray satellite is shown. As of Feb 2008, no Secondary GOES X-ray satellite data is available. Some data dropouts will occur during satellite eclipses.

During the spring and fall, GOES satellites experience eclipses in which the Earth or moon blocks the X-ray instrument view to the sun for a short period every day. Eclipse season lasts for about 45 to 60 days and ranges from minutes to just over an hour. At these times there is a gap in the XRS signal shown.

Other plots of interest: 3-day GOES 5-min X-rays; SWPC Real-time Monitors.

SWPC X-ray alerts are issued at the M5 (5x10E-5 Watts/m2) level, based upon 1-minute data. Large X-ray bursts cause short wave fades for HF propagation paths through the sunlit hemisphere. Some large flares are accompanied by strong solar radio bursts that may interfere with satellite downlinks.

ANOTHER X-FLARE: Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected another X-class solar flare issuing from a sunspot hidden behind the sun's eastern limb. This latest blast, measuring X2.8 on the Richter Scale of Solar Flares, is the second one today and the strongest flare of the year so far. X-FLARE #1: A sunspot hiding behind the sun's northeastern limb erupted on May 13th at 02:17 UT, producing an X1.7-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the explosion's extreme ultraviolet flash: Coronagraphs onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) tracked a bright CME emerging from the blast site: movie. No planets were in the line of fire. However, the CME appears to be on course to hit NASA's Epoxi and Spitzer spacecraft on May 15th. The sunspot that produced this blast is on the farside of the sun. Soon, in a few days, it will turn toward Earth, emerging into view over the sun's eastern limb.

May 14, 2013 – SOLAR WATCH - The sun erupted for the second time in less than 24 hours Monday morning, releasing the most powerful solar flare so far of 2013. Monday’s solar flare, which peaked at 9 a.m. Pacific time, came just 14 hours after the second largest solar flare of 2013, which occurred on Sunday evening. A solar flare is a huge explosion in the sun’s atmosphere that sends out a burst of radiation. The Earth’s atmosphere protects us from that radiation, but some satellites could be affected. Monday’s solar flare is classified as an X2.8, according to NASA. Sunday’s solar flare was an X1.7. In the language of solar flare watchers, an X class solar flare is the largest type of solar flare. An X2 is twice as powerful as an X1, and an X3 is three times as powerful, etc. The Sunday solar flare was the first X-class solar flare of 2013. Both solar flares originated from sunspots that are just hidden from view on the left-hand side of the sun. These spots will be visible from Earth in a few days however, thanks to the sun’s rotation. Both solar flares were also associated with coronal mass ejections, which can send billions of tons of solar material hurtling through space at speeds of hundreds of miles per second. The coronal mass ejections were not directed at Earth however, but the people who work on the solar imaging satellite STEREO-B and the Spitzer spacecraft have been put on notice that the side of the coronal mass ejections may brush past them, interfering with their operations. There’s no need to worry about the sun’s increase in eruptions. In a statement reelased Monday, NASA says that the increased number of solar flares is expected as the sun moves toward the peak of its 11-year solar cycle–solar maximum–in 2013. So far this solar cycle, there have been a total of 16 X-class flares including Sunday and Monday’s flares. The largest X-class flare of this cycle was a whopping X6.9, which took place on Aug. 9, 2011. Monday’s solar flare was the third strongest flare of this solar cycle. –LA Times

SOLAR ACTIVITY SURGES: A sunspot on the sun's eastern limb is crackling with powerful X-class solar flares. Just-numbered AR1748 announced itself during the early hours of May 13th with an X1.7-class eruption (0217 UT), quickly followed by an X2.8-class flare (1609 UT) and an X3.2-class flare (0117 UT on May 14). These are the strongest flares of the year so far, and they signal a significant increase in solar activity. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of more X-flares during the next 24 hours. All of these flares have produced strong flashes of extreme ultraviolet radiation. Here is the view of the latest eruption, which registered X3.2 on the Richter Scale of Solar Flares, from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory: The explosions have also hurled coronal mass ejections (CMEs) into space. Coronagraphs onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory are tracking the clouds: movie. The planet in the CME movie is Mercury. Although the CMEs appear to hit Mercury, they do not. In fact, no planets were in the line of fire. However, the CMEs appear to be on course to hit NASA's Epoxi and Spitzer spacecraft on May 15-16.

When the action began on May 13th, the instigating sunspot (just numbered "AR1748") was hidden behind the sun's eastern limb, but now solar rotation is bringing the active region into view. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory captured this first look just hours ago:

CHANCE OF FLARES: NOAA forecasters estimate a 50% chance of X-class solar flares and an 80% chance of M-class solar flares today. The source would be active sunspot AR1748, which is turning toward Earth. ANOTHER X-FLARE ON MAY 15: When the week began, the sun hadn't unleashed an X-flare all year long. In only two days, sunspot AR1748 has produced four. The latest X-flare from this active sunspot occured on May 15th at 0152 UT. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the extreme ultraviolet flash: Although the sunspot is not directly facing Earth, this flare might have produced a CME with an Earth-directed component. We are waiting for coronagraph data from SOHO and the twin STEREO probes to check this possibility.

In summary, AR1748 has produced an X1.7-class flare (0217 UT on May 13), an X2.8-class flare (1609 UT on May 13), an X3.2-class flare (0117 UT on May 14), and an X1-class flare (0152 on May 15). These are the strongest flares of the year, and they signal a significant increase in solar activity.


ION WAVES IN THE ATMOSPHERE: Although AR1748 is not directly facing Earth, its strong flares have nevertheless affected our atmosphere. UV and X-radiation hitting the top of the atmosphere ionizes atoms and molecules, creating ion waves over the dayside of the planet. Roberto Battaiola detected these waves on May 13th using a Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance monitor in Milan, Italy: Sudden ionospheric disturbances--"SIDs" for short--make themselves known by the effect they have on low-frequency radio signals. When a SID passes by, the atmosphere overhead becomes an good reflector for radio waves, allowing signals to be received from distant transmitters. Battaiola monitored a faraway 21.75 kHz radio station to monitor the SIDs over his location. More SIDS are in the offing as NOAA forecasters estimate an 80% chance of M-flares and a 50% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours.

CME IMPACT: A CME hit Earth's magnetic field on May 19th at 2250 UT (3:50 PM PDT). Polar geomagnetic storms and high-latitude auroras are possible in the hours ahead.
The CME was propelled toward Earth on May 17th by an M3-class solar flare in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR1748. SOHO took this picture of the CME racing away from the sun at 1500 km/s (3.4 million mph): It was hurled into space by an M3-class solar flare in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR1748. In the video, the CME appears to hit Mercury, but it does not. It is merely passing in front of the innermost planet. The planet in the line of fire is Earth.

Published on May 16, 2013
Visit http://science.nasa.gov/ for breaking science news.
BRIGHT EXPLOSION ON THE MOON: Recently, a small boulder hit the Moon and exploded with as much energy as 5 tons of TNT. NASA scientists say the explosion was bright enough to see with the naked eye. NASA researchers who monitor the Moon for meteoroid impacts have detected the brightest explosion in the history of their program.

WEEKEND CME STRIKES: Over the weekend, a pair of CMEs hit Earth--one on May 18th (0100 UT) and another on May 19th (2250 UT). The impacts, especially the first one, rattled Earth's magnetic field and sparked Northern Lights visible as far south as Colorado. More auroras are possible tonight as Earth's magnetic field continues to reverberate from the impacts. Sunspot AR1748 has a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 75% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on May 20th. Solar wind flowing from coronal hole should reach Earth on May 23-24.

SOLAR WIND: A stream of solar wind blowing from a southern coronal hole on the sun is expected to brush past Earth's magnetic field on May 23-24. NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% chance that the contact will spark polar geomagnetic storms.

Solar wind speed: 441.6 km/sec

CME AND RADIATION STORM: A solar radiation storm is in progress on May 22nd following an M5-class explosion on the sun's western limb. The source of the flare, which peaked at 1332 UT, was departing sunspot AR1745. SOHO coronagraphs observed a magnificent CME emerging from the blast site: The speckles dancing across the image are caused by high-energy solar protons striking the CCD camera in SOHO's coronagraph. Those protons were guided toward Earth by magnetic field lines that connect our planet to the blast site. The rain of protons is what forecasters mean by a "radiation storm." This storm ranks S2 on NOAA storm scales.

Update (May 22 @ 5:30 PDT): Although the explosion was not squarely Earth-directed, the CME will likely be geoeffective. The expanding cloud appears set to deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on May 24th around 1200 UT. According to NOAA forecast models, the impact will more than double the solar wind plasma density around Earth and boost the solar wind speed to ~600 km/s.

SUBSIDING RADIATION STORM: A solar radiation storm in progress around Earth is slowly subsiding. It currently ranks S2 (moderate) on NOAA storm scales, which means that satellites in Earth orbit could experience "single event upsets" in their electronic systems. The radiation storm is also a source of noise in spacecraft cameras, giving their images a snowy appearance (see below).

M5-CLASS EXPLOSION: The ongoing radiation storm got started on May 22nd when the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR1745 exploded. The blast produced an M5-class solar flare and hurled a magnificent CME over the sun's western limb:


The movie of the CME is very "snowy." That is caused by high-energy solar protons striking the CCD camera in SOHO's coronagraph. Each strike produces a brief snow-like speckle in the image. This hailstorm of solar protons is what forecasters mean by "radiation storm."

Although the explosion was not squarely Earth-directed, the CME will likely be geoeffective. The expanding cloud appears set to deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on May 24th around 1200 UT. According to NOAA forecast models, the impact will more than double the solar wind plasma density around Earth and boost the solar wind speed to ~600 km/s.

CME STRIKE, GEOMAGNETIC STORM: As expected, a CME propelled into space by the M5-class explosion of May 22nd delivered a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on May 24th around 1800 UT. A polar geomagnetic storm is in pregress as a result of the strike. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras shining through bright moonlight.

Solar Wind Speed: 528.9 km/sec

Sunspots AR1755 and AR1756 have 'beta-gamma' magnetic fields that harbor energy for M-class solar flares. Solar wind flowing from coronal hole could brush past Earth's magnetic field on May 27-28.

BACTERIA FLY INTO RADIATION STORM: Two days ago, high school students in Bishop, California, using a suborbital helium balloon launched a petri dish full of extreme-loving halobacteria into the strongest radiation storm of the year. They wanted to know how the extremophiles would fare when peppered with protons at the edge of space. Here is a picture of the sample 108,000 feet above Earth's surface: The radiation storm was sparked by an M5-class solar flare on May 22nd. Students launched their microbes in the immediate aftermath of the flare when the highest energy protons (E > 100 MeV) were peaking in intensity. In addition to solar protons, the bacteria experienced air pressures only 1% that of sea level on the Earth below, temperatures as low as -65 C, and 70 mph winds. A student recovery team collected the payload from a remote desert in Nevada on May 23rd. Now they are culturing the bacteria to see if they survived.

Solar wind speed: 528.9 km/sec