SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image

See also the CO2 data. Earth's atmosphere lights up at infrared wavelengths during the solar storms of March 8-10, 2012. A ScienceCast video explains the physics of this phenomenon. “We’re just emerging from a deep solar minimum,” says Russell. “The solar cycle is gaining strength with a maximum expected in 2013.”

SOLAR STORM HEATS UP EARTH'S ATMOSPHERE: A flurry of solar activity in early March dumped enough heat in Earth's upper atmosphere to power every residence in New York City for two years. The heat has since dissipated, but there's more to come as the solar cycle intensifies. NOAA forecasters estimate a 15% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on March 23nd. Considering the season, however, a full-fledged storm might not be necessary. Solar wind speed: 362.9 km/sec

March 20, 2012 – SPACE – Did March 14, 2012 Comet Swan’s dive into the solar surface cause another CME blast on the farside of the Sun? These latest pictures from NASA offer a telling story.

INCREDIBLE SUNSPOT AR1429: Big sunspot AR1429, the source of so many strong flares and geomagnetic storms earler this month, is still erupting. The active region produced a significant coronal mass ejection on March 24th at 00:39 UT. Because of the sunspot's location on the far side of the sun, this particular CME will not hit Earth. An animated forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab shows the trajectory of the expanding cloud:
The leading edge of the CME is espected to arrive at the STEREO-B spacecraft on March 25th at 13:08 UT (+/- 7 hours). None of the inner panets will be affected.

Since March began, sunspot AR1429 has propelled CMEs into every corner of the solar system, stirring up stormy space weather around every planet and spacecraft. If the sunspot remains active for another week or so, it will turn back toward Earth for a new round of geoeffective eruptions. Stay tuned.

Analysis by Goddard scientists provide basic guidelines to help model some of the largest, most damaging geomagnetically induced currents -- Explosions on the sun regularly disrupt the magnetic envelope surrounding Earth, but that envelope, the magnetosphere, largely protects the surface of the planet itself from space weather – with one exception. As a rule, changes in magnetic fields cause electric currents and vice versa, so all that change in the magnetosphere causes electric currents to form on the ground. Called geomagnetically induced currents or GICs, such currents extend some 60 miles underground, electrifying any conductors – power grid lines, or oil pipes, for example – along the way.

A big enough electrical surge from a GIC can knock out the transformers in a power grid. Electric companies can protect the grid from such surges by shutting down or lowering the power load on the system, but this, of course, costs money so they also don't wish to be overly cautious by reducing power output unless it is really necessary. New analysis by scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., published online in Space Weather on February 23, 2012, provides some basic guidelines to help model some of the largest, most damaging GICs.

Risk analysis and adequate risk protection both rely on numerous factors. Modeling an extreme, devastating GIC is a crucial part of that picture. Referred to as 100-year events, that is, events so extreme they only happen on average once every 100 years, such currents could cause significant damage to Earth's power grids worldwide. But proper preparation and accurate space weather forecasting could mitigate intense damage, the same way that communities can evacuate or protect their homes if given enough advance warning of a hurricane. Read more http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/gic-model.html

GEOMAGNETIC OUTLOOK: NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% to 45% chance of strong geomagnetic storms around the poles on March 28-29 in response to an incoming solar wind stream. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras. ANOTHER CME FROM SUNSPOT AR1429: Transiting the farside of the sun, never-say-die sunspot AR1429 erupted during the late hours of March 26th, producing its 11th major CME. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) photographed the cloud flying over the sun's eastern limb:

March 27, 2012 – ANOTHER CME FROM SUNSPOT AR1429: Transiting the farside of the sun, never-say-die sunspot AR1429 erupted during the late hours of March 26th, producing its 11th major CME. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) photographed the cloud flying over the sun’s eastern limb. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CMEwill hit two spacecraft, STEREO-B and Spitzer, on March 28th. Earth is not in the line of fire. This event shows that AR1429, the source of several strong geomagnetic storms in early March, is still active. It will begin turning back towards our planet about a week from now. –Space Weather

Carol,

This is what I said on another thread about the sun kicking up again. I have the calculations for the 02 through to the 06 of april. It should be clearer to me in 2 days, depending on the arrival of the sunspot mentioned in my post.

I think NOAA could be shooting a prematurely.


t


quote="lawlessline"]
giovonni wrote:
[b]The Sun Today


After the triangle episode we now have the face of the matter. if you stop the Docs vid at 3.10 you will see their eyes and mount grinning at you.The solar plexus feeling the glow of the cosmic rays blowing through it's dark side of the sun. Oh yes. It's good to feel good. The sun should show a bit of stability for the next 2/3weeks, before the next build.

Thanks for these vids Doc.


t


giovonni wrote:


[b]Things are definitely stirring up again...

And it appears to be coming back around ...



As above Gio, It was the 16th of March when I posted the above and therefore, we should be looking at a new sun spot that has started to develop over the darkside of the sun about 2 days ago. It should singing in Earths direction about the 02-06 of April, although we should see it coming round the bend over the limb in 3 days.

The new sun spot should be in the region of 25° - 35° Latitude or is it longditude. I should really know this by now. Memory like a strainer. That is to say the horizontal lines. Boy I am bad. Doh.

Anyway.Keep em coming My friend.


t

Thanks Tom.

NORTHERN LIGHTS OVER NEBRASKA: A solar wind stream is buffeting Earth's magnetic field, causing magnetic unrest and auroras at high latitudes. Last night faint Northern Lights descended all the way south to Nebraska. Click to view a movie of the display, photographed by Chris Allington of Crofton, NE:

The cause of the display was the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), which tipped south and opened a crack in Earth's magnetosphere. Solar wind poured in to fuel the light. More high-latitude auroras are possible tonight: NOAA forecasters estimate a 50% chance of polar geomagnetic storms as the solar wind continues to blow.

QUOTE: A brief and unexpected timelapse display occured on March 27th, 2012. I had been watching the plots and taking occasional images outside to see if the aurora was visible. Finally around 9:15pm local time... I had the faint green/red glow on the horizon. After a few more images I decided to head for a wind farm near my house west of Crofton, Nebraska to finally capture the Northern Lights with a foreground besides the trees in my yard!

The aurora remained visible from 10pm to nearly 2am local time with brief periods of stronger activity including some colorful rays and beams. This timelapse covers the span from about 10pm to 1am before I decided to head home. All images were taken using a Canon Rebel T1i, using the kit lens at 18mm and f/3.5, 1600 iso for 30 seconds. You can see the wind mills move a couple times during the video as the stars swirl with Earth's rotation above and the curtain of aurora dances between.

To see more go to http://www.intotherfd.com

RETURN OF THE SUNSPOT: Sunspot AR1429, the source of many strong flares and geomagnetic storms earlier this month, is about to re-appear following a two-week trip around the backside of the sun. Magnetic loops towering over the sun's NE limb herald the sunspot's approach:

Earlier today, NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed plumes of plasma rising and falling over the limb. Moreover, a pair of solar flares (C5- and C7-class) in the sunspot's towering magnetic canopy caused waves of ionization to ripple through the high atmosphere over Europe.

While sunspot AR1429 was transiting the farside, it erupted multiple times. Between March 23rd and March 27th, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) recorded four coronal mass ejections, each racing away from the sun faster than 3 million mph. Collectively, these events suggest AR1429 might still be capable of potent solar activity.

AR1429 might still be potent. Just yesterday it produced a flurry of five C-class flares and sent waves of ionization rippling through the high atmosphere over Europe. Furthermore, NOAA forecasters estimate a 35% chance of M-class flares during the next 24 hours. Solar wind speed increased to 421.7 km/sec

Some activity from this diminished active region is certainly possible, but it is unlikely to be anything like the strong storms of early March.

INCOMING CME: A magnetic filament connected to sunspot AR1450 erupted on April 2nd, hurling a faint CME in the direction of Earth. A weak impact is expected sometime on April 4th. NOAA forecasters estimate a ~25% chance of polar geomagnetic storms when the cloud arrives.

CATCH THE CONJUNCTION! When the sun sets tonight, go outside and look west. The planet Venus is in conjunction with the Pleiades star cluster. This only happened once every eight years, so don't miss it!

Last night in Puławy, Poland, photographer Kamila Mazurkiewicz was determined to catch the meeting:
"Venus and the Pleiades were like diamonds in the sky," says Mazurkiewicz. "It was a beautiful sight."

A CME expected to reach Earth on April 4th is overdue. The cloud might have missed or maybe it's running late. Mindful of a possible impact, NOAA forecasters estimate a 15% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on April 5th. Solar wind: speed: 370.8 km/sec

"Thanks to its orbit, Venus' appearance in the sky repeats itself almost exactly every 8 years," explains Keen. "Forty years ago, on April 2, 1972, Venus passed by the Pleiades only half a degree from its position two days ago. It's fun to compare this photo I took back in 1972 with this week's wonderful images."

THREE EXPLOSIONS: Three coronal mass ejections (CMEs) blasted away from the sun in quick succession during the late hours of April 5th: movie. The clouds were propelled by magnetic filaments erupting in various locations around the sun's northern hemisphere. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded this explosion, the most potent of the three:
The movie shows a filament connected to sunspot AR1450 rising up and snapping. In the aftermath of the eruption, an arcade of hot-glowing magnetic loops forms over the blast site as a "canyon of fire" illuminates the empty filament channel.

Remarkably, given their number, not one of the CMEs appears to be heading for our planet. This conclusion is only tentative, however, because of visual confusion among the three clouds. Stay tuned for updates.

INCOMING CME: NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% chance of strong geomagnetic storms around the poles on April 8-9 when a CME delivers a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field. The cloud was propelled in our direction by a solar filament, which erupted on April 5th (movie). High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras

EGG MOON: Last night's full Moon, the first full Moon of northern spring, is sometimes called the "Egg Moon" because of its association with Easter. As it watched the moon rise over Cape Elizabeth, Maine, photographer John Stetson didn't think it looked much like an egg--that is, until he tilted his head 90 degrees:

"The earth's atmosphere provided beautiful color and distorted the shape of our moon as it appeared on the horizon," says Stetson. "The red rim on the lower part of the moon and the green rim on the upper part of the moon was particularly evident tonight. Many observers shared this view at the eyepiece. Happy Easter to all."

CHANCE OF MAGNETIC STORMS: NOAA forecasters estimate a ~30% chance of geomagnetic storms around the poles on April 9th. That's when a CME is expected to deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field. The cloud was propelled in our direction by a solar filament erupting on April 5th (movie). High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

MERCURY-DIRECTED ERUPTION: For the past few days, magnetic filaments have been rising and snapping all around the sun. The latest eruption occured during the late hours of April 7th, shown here in an extreme UV video from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:

The eruption hurled a CME into space. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the cloud will not hit Earth, but it will hit Mercury on April 9th around 02:29 UT (+/- 7 hours). Mercury's planetary magnetic field is only ~10% as strong as Earth's, so Mercury is not well protected from CMEs. When the clouds hit, they can actually scour atoms off Mercury's surface, adding material to Mercury's super-thin atmosphere and comet-like tail.


"Around midnight, the air on the Brunt Ice Shelf the air was filled with diamond dust," says Burrell. "As the moon rose, we caught this show." Diamond dust is the atmospheric optics term for tiny, jewel-like crystals of ice. They form on cold days in the air near ground level. When they catch the rays of the low-hanging sun or moon, the results can be spectacular. "In this single display, we could see a moon halo, moondogs, and hints of a moon pillar," says Burrell.

STORM CLOUD MISSES EARTH: A coronal mass ejection (CME) expected to hit Earth's magnetic field on April 9th seems to have missed. No signatures of an impact are evident in solar wind data. NOAA has downgraded the odds of a geomagnetic storm today to no more than 10%.

GREEN COCKPIT: Earth is entering a solar wind stream that could spark high-latitude auroras during the next 24-48 hours. More lights are possible on April 12-14 when a high-speed solar wind stream is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. NOAA forecasters estimate a ~20% chance of geomagnetic storms around the poles.

SOMETHING IN THE OFFING: A potentially significant active region is about to rotate onto the Earthside of the sun. A hot plume of plasma flying over the sun's northeastern limb heralded its approach during the early hours of April 15th:
The eruption hurled a coronal mass ejection toward NASA's STEREO-B spacecraft. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab have prepared a forecast track showing the progress of the cloud. No planets are in the line of fire.

SPECTACULAR EXPLOSION (UPDATED): Magnetic fields on the sun's northeastern limb erupted around 17:45 UT on April 16th, producing one of the most visually-spectacular explosions in years. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the blast at extreme ultraviolet wavelengths.The explosion, which registered M1.7 on the Richter Scale of solar flares, was not Earth-directed, but it did hurl a CME into space. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather have analyzed the trajectory of the cloud and found that it will hit NASA's STEREO-B spacecraft, the Spitzer space telescope, and the rover Curiosity en route to Mars. Planets Venus and Mars could also receive a glancing blow.

This event confirms suspicions that an active region of significance is rotating onto the Earth-facing side of the sun.

UPDATE: Using data from SDO, Steele Hill of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center has assembled a must-see movie of the event. The movie shows the explosion unfolding at 304 Angstroms, a wavelength which traces plasma with a temperature around 80,000 K.

http://www.spaceweather.com/images2012/16apr12/304.mov?PHPSESSID=8ne9vbgcodfbihllc1cp80ke66

Coverage of the blast was not limited to space telescopes. Amateur astronomers saw it, too. Jim Lafferty sends this picture from his backyard observatory in Redlands, California: "Yesterday's prominence on the sun's eastern limb was was one of the largest in years---short lived, it was mostly gone in a few hours," says Lafferty. "It was a wonderful sight in the eyepiece and in the camera!"

Nutron cosmic rays http://neutronm.bartol.udel.edu/~pyle/RTPlots.html and http://cr0.izmiran.rssi.ru/mosc/main.htm

GROWING SUNSPOT: What a difference a day makes. On April 16th, sunspot AR1460 did not exist. Twenty-four hours later it was twice as big as the planet Earth. This April 17th movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows sunspot genesis in action: The sunspot's magnetic field is still too simple for strong flares, but if the expansion continues apace, instabilities could develop that lead to explosions.

ION WAVES IN EARTH'S ATMOSPHERE: Today, a volley of C-class solar flares sent waves of ionization rippling through the atmosphere high over Europe. Dave Gradwell of Birr, Ireland, detected the disturbances using a VLF radio monitoring system:
The source of the flares is a sunspot in the sun's southern hemisphere (tentatively numbered AR1463)--one of several active regions popping up around the solar disk. With sunspot numbers on the rise, more flares and ion waves are likely in the days ahead.

INCOMING PLASMA CLOUDS: On April 18th and 19th, a series of minor CMEs puffed away from the sun. Three of them are heading in our general direction. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab have prepared an animated forecast track of the ensemble:
According to the forecast, the clouds are going to hit Mercury, Earth, Mars and rover Curiosity en route to Mars. The impact on our planet, on April 22nd around 00:50 UT, is expected to be minor with auroras likely only at higher latitudes.

GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A minor (Kp=5) geomagnetic storm is underway. This is probably due to Earth's passage through the wake of a CME that swept past our planet earlier today. Solar wind speed: 359.6 km/sec

SIERRA FIREBALL DECODED: On Sunday morning, April 22nd, just as the Lyrid meteor shower was dying down, a spectacular fireball exploded over California's Sierra Nevada mountain range. The loud explosion rattled homes from central California to Reno, Nevada, and beyond. According to Bill Cooke, head of NASA's Meteoroid Envronment Office, the source of the blast was a meteoroid about the size of a minivan. "The energy is estimated at a whopping 3.8 kilotons of TNT, so this was a big event," he continues. "I am not saying there was a 3.8 kiloton explosion on the ground in California. I am saying that the meteor possessed this amount of energy before it broke apart in the atmosphere. [The map] shows the location of the atmospheric breakup, not impact with the ground."

"The fact that sonic booms were heard indicates that this meteor penetrated very low in atmosphere, which implies a speed less than 15 km/s (33,500 mph). "This meteor was probably not a Lyrid; without a trajectory, I cannot rule out a Lyrid origin, but I think it likely that it was a background or sporadic meteor."

April 23, 2012 – SPACE - Here’s troubling news in the world of astrophysics, in which astronomers can’t seem to find the dark matter. As you may know dark matter is a much-speculated upon, but unknown substance that cannot be seen but appears to exist as it exerts a gravitational force on material around it. Astronomers first posited the existence of dark matter to explain why the outer portions of galaxies rotate quickly, and it now is also an important part of theories that explain how galaxies form and grow. Scientists believe there must be about five times as much dark matter in the universe as normal matter — atoms, planets, you and me. Last week, in a study that didn’t get the attention it probably deserves, astronomers said they could find any dark matter near our Sun. Existing theories predict that the average amount of dark matter in the Sun’s part of the galaxy should be in the range 1 to 2 pounds of dark matter in a volume the size of the Earth. The new measurements found nada. Zip. Zilch.“This is an article that we are going to have to take seriously,” Texas A&M astronomer Nick Suntzeff told me. Which is to say that if dark matter is not where our theories predict it will be, our theories probably have some serious issues. –Chron



Mystery of cosmic rays deepens: The mystery of the origin of the strongest cosmic rays has deepened as new clues into key suspects, the most powerful explosions in the universe, suggest they are likely not potential culprits, researchers say. Gamma-ray bursts are the most powerful explosions in the universe. They can emit as much energy as our sun during its entire 10-billion-year lifetime in anywhere from milliseconds to minutes. Some gamma-ray bursts are thought to be collapses of super massive stars — hypernovas — while others are thought to be collisions of black holes with other black holes or neutron stars,” said study co-author Spencer Klein of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. “Both types produce brief but intense blasts of radiation.” New evidence may now rule out gamma-ray bursts as sources of these. Using the IceCube Neutrino Observatory at the South Pole in Antarctica, the boffins watched 300 gamma ray bursts (GRBs) while searching for the neutrinos that are believed to be linked with cosmic ray generation, and found none. “The unexpected absence of neutrinos from GRBs has forced a re-evaluation of the theory for production of cosmic rays and neutrinos in a GRB fireball and possibly the theory that high energy cosmic rays are generated in fireballs.” -Space, Register

CHANCE OF FLARES: Sunspot AR1465 has developed a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Because of the sunspot's location near the middle of the solar disk, any eruptions will likely be Earth-directed. Solar wind speed: 650.8 km/se

QUIETING STORM, MORE TO COME: Earth's magnetic field is quieting after two straight nights of mild to moderate geomagnetic storms. At the height of the disturbance on April 23-24, auroras were spotted in more than a dozen US states including Michigan, Nebraska, Kansas, Wisconsin, North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, and Colorado. On the threshold of the Arctic Circle in Anchorage, Alaska, the Northern Lights pierced the glow of the midnight sun: More auroras may be in the offing. A minor CME is en route to Earth, due to arrive on April 26th. NOAA forecasters estimate a 20% to 30% chance of geomagnetic storms.