GLOBAL D-REGION ABSORPTION PREDICTION

UPDATE:

confirmed.. x Flare from sunspot 1166
Earth facing

Conditions in the D-Region of the Ionosphere have a dramatic effect on High Frequency (HF) communications and Low Frequency (LF) navigation systems like Loran. The global D-Region Absorption Product depicts the D-region at high latitudes where it is driven by particles as well as low latitudes, where photons cause the prompt changes. This product merges all latitudes using appropriate displays, and is useful to customers such as commercial aviation and maritime users.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/index.html

Sunspot 1164 has a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class flares. EQUINOX SUN OUTAGES: Many readers reported an intermittent loss of satellite TV reception over the weekend. Was the sun to blame? Yes and no. Senior forecaster Bill Murtagh of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center explains: "It is likely that the sun caused the problem, but not because of solar flares. Now is the time of year for the 'equinox conjunction,' when the sun lines up with the satellite and the receiving satellite dish. When this happens, radio interference from the sun competes with signals from the satellite and can create noise levels several decibels higher than normal. The problem, which typically persists for 5 to 15 minutes, is referred to as a 'sun outage' and is often confused with sunspot or solar flare activity."


http://www.spaceweather.com/

Solar flare warning for South Africa: 'People must wear high sunscreen factor'...
http://technology.iafrica.com/science/711810.html

Solar flare warning for SA
Article By: Andrea van Wyk
Mon, 07 Mar 2011 2:41

The Hermanus Space Weather Warning Centre (SWWC) on Sunday said a large solar flare was currently being experienced in South Africa. The solar flare would result in higher radiation levels from the sun.

SWWC’s forecaster Kobus Olckers said people should be careful when they go outside.

"People must wear high sunscreen factor at the moment or preferably go shopping," he said.

A powerful solar flare could overwhelm high-voltage transformers with electrical currents and short-circuit energy grids, with one such event in 1989 disrupting power across the Canadian province of Quebec.

However, solar flares are nothing new, with the first major solar flare being recorded by British astronomer Richard Carrington in 1859.
http://investmentwatchblog.com/solar-flare-warning-for-s-africa-people-must-wear-high-sunscreen-factor-at-the-moment/

Earth has had 8 M flares
1 minute X ray flux
http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/last_events/
5 minute X ray flux
The GOES X-ray Flux plot contains 5 minute averages of solar X-ray output in the 1-8 Angstrom (0.1-0.8 nm) and 0.5-4.0 Angstrom (0.05-0.4 nm) passbands. Data from the SWPC Primay GOES X-ray satellite is shown. As of Feb 2008, no Secondary GOES X-ray satellite data is available. Some data dropouts will occur during satellite eclipses.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5mBL.html

and earth just now had another long lasting M
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

list of todays flares
http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/last_events/


Total for Today =
9 M class Flares
7 C class Flares

AND COUNTING!

March 8, 2011 - Conditions in the D-Region of the Ionosphere have a dramatic effect on High Frequency (HF) communications and Low Frequency (LF) navigation systems like Loran. The global D-Region Absorption Product depicts the D-region at high latitudes where it is driven by particles as well as low latitudes, where photons cause the prompt changes. This product merges all latitudes using appropriate displays, and is useful to customers such as commercial aviation and maritime users.

The Hermanus Space Weather Warning Centre (SWWC) on Sunday said a large solar flare was currently being experienced in South Africa. The solar flare would result in higher radiation levels from the sun.


CCMC CME Arrival Time Prediction

Event Issue Date: 2011-03-08 01:13:58.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2011-03-09 18:53:18.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 9 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 5.3 Re
Wed, 09 Mar 2011 18:53:18 GMT

Event Issue Date: 2011-03-07 19:41:06.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2011-03-10 19:33:07.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 12 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.2 Re
Thu, 10 Mar 2011 19:33:07 GMT

Under 'CME Arrival Time Prediction'
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/

Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere.

Absorption is the process by which the energy of radio waves is converted into heat and electromagnetic (EM) noise through interactions between the radio wave, ionospheric electrons, and the neutral atmosphere (for a more extensive description of the absorption process see Davies, 1990). Most of the absorption occurs in the ionospheric D region (50–90 km altitude) where the product of the electron density and the electron-neutral collision frequency attains a maximum. Within this region the neutral density is relatively constant over time, so variations in the local electron density drive the total amount of absorption. The electron density is a function of many parameters and normally varies with local time, latitude, season, and over the solar cycle. These "natural" changes are predictable, and affect absorption only moderately at the lowest HF frequencies. Much more significant changes to the absorption strength are seen as a result of sudden increases of electron density in the D region (the classic short wave fade) due to, for example, solar X-ray flares on the dayside or solar proton precipitation in the polar regions.

Solar X-ray flares have significant emission in the 0.1-0.8 nm [1-8 Å] wavelength range. This is important because these wavelengths ionize the D region, dramatically increasing local electron density, and hence the total EM absorption. The flares, which can last from a few minutes to several hours, are rated C, M, or X according to the 0.1-0.8 nm flux as measured by instruments on the GOES satellites. To qualify as a C-class flare the flux, F, must fall within the range 10-6 ≤ F < 10-5 W·m-2, for M-class 10-5 ≤ F < 10-4 W·m-2, and X-class F ≥ 10-4 W·m-2. In standard notation the letters act as multipliers, for example C3.2 equates to a flux of 3.2 x 10-6 W·m-2. The C, M, and X classification is based on the full-disk X-ray emission from the sun. During periods of high solar activity, such as solar maximum, the background flux may increase to C-class levels for days at a time, even without flare activity. The D region electron density is directly driven by the total X-ray flux regardless of the source, so these periods of high background flux are equally important to radio absorption. Due to geometric effects, D region ionization by solar X-rays is greatest at the sub-solar point, where the sun is directly overhead. The amount of ionization and absorption falls with distance away from the sub-solar point, reaching zero at the day/night terminator. The night-side of the Earth is unaffected.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/dregion_absorption_documentation.html

INCOMING CME: The magnetic canopy of sunspot 1166 erupted on March 7th around 1400 UT, producing an M2-class solar flare and a bright coronal mass ejection (CME). The CME was not squarely directed at Earth. Nevertheless, the cloud will probably deliver a glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field on March 9th or 10th, possibly sparking polar geomagnetic storms. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

"HIGH SOLAR ACTIVITY: Solar Cycle 24 is heating up. No fewer than three sunspots (1164, 1165, and 1166) are crackling with M-class solar flares, and each of them has a delta-class magnetic field capable of producing even more powerful X-flares. Scroll past the double flybys for information about a CME now heading our way..." http://www.spaceweather.com/


http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23+00%3A44%3A00&window=-1&cygnetId=261

re-profile
Scientific observations often has to do with being in the right place at the right time, whether intentionally or not. In a stroke of good luck last Thursday the sun’s rotation, NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory, and a sizeable M 3.6 class solar flare all lined up to allow SDO to capture a gorgeous profile view of said flare unfolding in high definition.

The resulting 16-second video released by NASA over the weekend captures the 90-minute solar event at a cadence of one frame every 24 seconds, creating a time-lapse of the eruption spewing, twisting, and collapsing back to the surface, giving the illusion of seamless motion though the actual event moved more statically.

Unlike the massive solar flare that disrupted communications on earth and spawned beautiful auroras in the Northern Hemisphere earlier this month, NASA says Thursday's flare was directed away from Earth and does not pose any threat.

March 8, 2011 – SOLAR ACTIVITY: The magnetic canopy of big sunspot 1166 erupted on March 7th around 1400 UT, producing an M2-class solar flare and a bright coronal mass ejection (CME). Check out the image of the movie which captures the expanding plasma cloud. The CME was not squarely directed at Earth. Nevertheless, the cloud will probably deliver a glancing blow to our planet’s magnetic field on March 9th or 10th, possibly sparking polar geomagnetic storms. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras. Sunspots have also increased on the solar surface. –Space Weather

UPDATE:

confirmed.. x Flare from sunspot 1166
Earth facing
FAST CORONAL MASS EJECTION: A coronal mass ejection (CME) exploded from the vicinity of sunspot 1164 during the late hours of March 7th. It leapt away from the sun traveling ~2200 km/s, making it the fastest CME since Sept. 2005. A movie of the cloud prepared by Karl Battams of the Naval Research Lab shows a possibly substantial Earth-directed component. This CME and at least one other could brush against Earth's magnetic field on March 9th or 10th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

SUNSPOT CONJUNCTION: On March 7th, shortly after space shuttle Discovery undocked from the International Space Station, the two ships flew directly in front of the sun over Europe. Catalin Fus of Krakow, Poland, had his solar-filtered telescope trained on sunspot 1166 and recorded this amazing conjunction - http://spaceweather.com/

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/last_events/gev_20110309_2313.html

http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/soho_movie_theater
Enter Start and End Dates
2011-03-08 2011-03-10 on LASCO C2.

a a R3 radio blackout was issued http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
March 8, 2011 (2000 UTC) -- Models Indicate Later CME Arrival. Further analysis with ENLIL and other models now suggests the CME from nearly 24 hours ago, clocking a speed of more than 2000 km/s as it left the Sun, may not arrive until midday tomorrow, March 9. Intricacies relating to the density of the ambient solar wind ahead -- and the subsequent deceleration of the ejecta -- are expected to lengthen its travel time. When it does arrive, look for G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic activity to follow.

March 7, 2011 (Product Update): Due to confusion regarding the measures of geomagnetic storm intensity, the Boulder K plot is now shown in conjunction with, and just below, the Estimated Planetary K (Estimated Kp) plot. To enable real-time warnings and alerts of geomagnetic activity, Boulder K has been SWPC's long-standing real-time proxy for Kp. SWPC Alerts, Warnings, and the indications of Geomagnetic Storms on the NOAA Space Weather Scale reference the Boulder K. For more information regarding these two indices and their use, please see the note included on the NOAA Space Weather Scale page.