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    Post  Carol Sat Feb 01, 2014 7:19 pm


    As part of the ongoing investigation into the interaction between the SUN,Earth and Us, this will be a very interesting event to follow through to its material manifestation. There is a lot of people trying to find these connection and we should always remember. We are all part of the solution and investigation. I have a phrase which I love. “The knowing person, knows that they know nothing the moment they know.” The investigation of our beautiful universe is one that will never end, even long after this planet is no more. Nearly broke into the dead parrot scene from Monty Python.

    So heres the mechanics.

    The flare was registered at 18.30 UTC. It was accompanied by a large and bright coronal massive ejection. The flare was earth facing. Get your tin foil pointed hats out. Sorry only a joke.

    Its connection to the outer fields is here.


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    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Mon Feb 24, 2014 7:53 am

    SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image - Page 23 Here_strip
    GROWING CALM: The solar wind blowing around Earth is gusty and unsettled--probably a side-effect of one or more minor CMEs that swept past our planet over the weekend. This is sparking intermittent auroras around the poles, but no widespread geomagnetic storms. The forecast for the next 24-48 hours calls for growing calm. Aurora alerts: text, voice

    WHERE THE ACTION IS: Although the Earth-facing side of the sun is peppered with spots, that's not where the action is. For the past few days, most solar activity has been coming from a location hidden behind the sun's southeastern limb. It is likely old sunspot AR1967, set to return from a two-week transit around the farside of the sun. The place to watch is circled:

    If AR1967 does come back, it will mark the third time the active region has crossed the visible face of the sun. The first time was in early January when it was called "AR1944." Sunspots seldom last more than two or three weeks; two or three months is remarkable. By now the returning spot is probably a decayed shell of its former self, although flares and CMEs flying over the southeastern limb hint at some remaining potency. Solar wind speed: 474.1 km/sec


    A narrow stream of solar wind flowing from this equatorial coronal hole should reach Earth on Feb. 28-March 1. Credit: SDO/AIA.


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Thu Feb 27, 2014 1:42 pm

    SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image - Page 23 Redflare3_strip4
    CME IMPACT, CHANCE OF STORMS: An interplanetary shock wave hit Earth's magnetic field today at approximately 1645 UT (11:45 AM EST). This is the expected glancing blow from the CME produced by the X4.9-class solar flare of Feb. 25th. Polar geomagnetic storms and auroras are possible in the hours ahead.

    X-FLARE! Long-lived sunspot AR1967 returned to the Earthside of the sun on Feb. 25th and promptly erupted, producing an X4.9-class solar flare.  This is the strongest flare of the year so far and one of the strongest of the current solar cycle. A movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the explosion hurling a loop of hot plasma away from the blast site: Coronagraphs onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory tracked this material as it raced away from the sun, eventually forming a bright CME, pictured below.. Radio emissions from shock waves at the leading edge of the CME suggest an expansion velocity near 2000 km/s or 4.4 million mph. If such a fast-moving cloud did strike Earth, the resulting geomagnetic storms could be severe. However, because its trajectory is so far off the sun-Earth line, the CME will deliver a no more than a glancing blow. NOAA forecasters expect a weak impact on Feb. 27th. Solar wind speed: 482.7 km/sec  

    SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image - Page 23 Cme_strip2
    The source of the eruption is long-lived sunspot AR1967, now beginning its third trip across the Earthside of the sun. This region was an active producer of flares during its previous transits, and it looks like the third time will be no different. By tradition, sunspots are renumbered each time they return, so AR1967 has been given a new name, AR1990. After today, that is what we will call it


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Wed Mar 05, 2014 10:51 am

    SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image - Page 23 Farsidecme_strip
    FARSIDE CME: Hours ago, a bright coronal mass ejection (CME) flew over the sun's southeastern limb. If such an event had occured years ago, we wouldn't know if this CME was a threat because, as viewed from Earth orbit, CMEs heading toward and away from Earth look much the same. Today, however, all CMEs are observed from multiple points of view: Dual coronagraph images from SOHO (stationed on the Earthside of the sun) and the STEREO-A probe (stationed on the farside) clearly show that this CME is a farside event. Radio emissions from shock waves at the leading edge of the blast suggest the cloud is racing away from Earth at approximately 1400 km/s (3 million mph). If it were racing in the opposite direction, we would have a significant geomagnetic storm in the offing. Instead, space weather around Earth is expected to remain calm for the rest of this week. Solar wind speed: 467.0 km/sec


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Mon Mar 10, 2014 5:16 pm

    SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image - Page 23 Crackle_strip
    SOLAR WIND STREAM MISSES EARTH: A solar wind stream expected to buffet Earth's magnetic field over the weekend missed. It sailed north of our planet and, as a result, did not spark visible auroras. The forecast calls for continued calm geomagnetic conditions tonightCRACKLING SUNSPOT: The eastern limb of the sun is crackling with M-class flares. The source is sunspot AR2002, shown here erupting on March 10th: The rapid growth of the sunspot has destabilized its magnetic field, which makes it more likely to erupt. NOAA forecasters estimate a 50% chance of M-class flares and a 5% chance of X-class flares during the next 24 hours.


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Mon Mar 17, 2014 7:57 pm

    SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image - Page 23 Tyler-Mode-164.-G-Chandalar-Lodge-Band-Sharp-V_1395099054_lg
    GREEN SKIES ON ST. PATRICK'S DAY? NOAA forecasters estimate a 15% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on March 17th. That means the odds of green skies on St. Patrick's Day are low. Instead, look for shamrock colors here. http://spaceweathergallery.com/aurora_gallery.html


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Mon Mar 24, 2014 2:58 pm

    SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image - Page 23 SSW_cutout_20140323T0225-20140323T0455_AIA_131-193-171_S10E42
    http://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/h264/2014/03/23/SSW_cutout_20140323T0225-20140323T0455_AIA_131-193-171_S10E42.mov

    GLANCING-BLOW CME, INCOMING: A CME launched from sunspot AR2014 on March 23rd is expected to deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on March 25th. NOAA forecasters estimate a 30%-40% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on March 25-26. Aurora alerts: text, voice

    LONG-DURATION FLARE: On March 23rd around 0330 UT, the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2014 became unstable and erupted, producing a long-duration C-class solar flare. Although C-class flares are considered to be minor, this one lasted so long (several hours) that it unleashed the energy-equivalent of a much stronger flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the action: \ Slow flares usually produce CMEs and this one was no exception. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) recorded a bright cloud emerging from the blast site: movie. The CME was not aimed at Earth. Nevertheless, it will have an effect on our planet. NOAA analysts say the CME will deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on March 25th. Solar wind speed: 405.0 km/sec



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    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Thu Apr 17, 2014 8:15 am

    SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image - Page 23 Cluster_strip
    CHANCE OF FLARES: A broad cluster of four sunspots straddling the sun's equator is facing Earth. Circled below, each of the active regions has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that habors energy for M-class solar flares: So far these sunspots are relatively quiet, producing no more than a drizzle of low-level C-class flares. Perhaps they are conserving their energy for something bigger. NOAA forecasters estimate a 50% chance of M-flares and a 5% chance of X-flares on April 16th.


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    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Fri Apr 18, 2014 8:19 am

    SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image - Page 23 M1_strip2
    Movie: http://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/h264/2014/04/16/SSW_cutout_20140416T1949-20140416T2019_AIA_131-193-171_S14E09.mov
    CHANCE OF M-CLASS FLARES: NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance of M-class flares today. The most likely source may be sunspot AR2035, which produced this M1-class eruption during the late hours of April 16th:
    Watch the movie again. A dark plume of plasma leaps out of the blast site, and some it it left the sun in the form of a faint, Earth-directed CME. NOAA forecasters expect the storm cloud to reach Earth on April 19th around 1800 UT, possibly sparking geomagnetic storms. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

    SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image - Page 23 Global
    Solar radiation impact


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Wed May 07, 2014 2:14 pm

    SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image - Page 23 Partingshot_strip
    PARTING SHOT: The odds of a geoeffective solar flare are dropping as sunspot AR2051 rotates off the visible solar disk. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded this parting shot during the late hours of May 6th:This plume of plasma, propelled away from the sun's surface by an M-class explosion in the sunspot's magnetic canopy, is as tall as a dozen planet Earths. Much of the material escaped the sun in the form of a coronal mass ejection (CME), not Earth-directed: movie. http://www.spaceweather.com/images2014/07may14/partingcme_anim.gif?PHPSESSID=okgcp8sc07a8a212caucgtlkc3

    Stronger blasts are possible on May 7th. The sunspot has a 'delta-class' magnetic field that harbors energy for powerful X-flares. Any such eruptions, however, will almost surely miss our planet as AR2051 heads for the farside of the sun


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Tue Jun 10, 2014 11:33 am

    SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image - Page 23 X2p2_strip
    DOUBLE X-FLARE: Forecasters expected an X-flare today, and the sun complied. The source, however, was unexpected. A new sunspot (AR2087) suddenly emerging from behind the sun's southeastern limb erupted twice, producing an X2.2-flare at 11:42 UT and an X1.5-flare at 12:52. This extreme ultraviolet image from the Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the first blast.


    X-rays and UV radiation from the double flare created a wave of ionization in Earth's upper atmosphere, altering the normal propagation of radio transmissions over Europe. Rob Stammes recorded the sudden ionospheric disturbance (SID) from his laboratory in Lofoton, Norway: data. Preliminary coronagraph images from NASA's STEREO probes show a bright CME emerging from the blast site, traveling mostly away from the sun-Earth line. No strong impacts are expected.

    Before today's double-eruption, forecasters had been keeping a wary eye on sunspot complex AR2080/AR2085. Almost directly-facing Earth, those two sunspots have 'delta-class' magnetic fields that harbor energy for X-flares. The emergence of sunspot AR2087 on the southeastern limb adds another potent source to the mix. Solar activity is high, and likely to remain so in the days ahead.


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Sat Jul 05, 2014 11:07 pm

    MOSTLY QUIET WITH A CHANCE OF FLARES: Solar activity is low. However, there are five sunspots facing Earth that pose a threat for geoeffective flares: AR2104, AR2106, AR2107, AR2108, AR2109. NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance that one of those active regions will produce an M-flare during the 4th of July weekend. 

    VERY SPOTTED SUN: Analysts have declared Solar Cycle 24 a "Mini Max" because the ongoing peak in solar activity is so much less intense than other solar cycles of the Space Age. However, today's sunspot count is anything but mini. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured this picture of multiple large sunspot groups sprawled across the face of the sun on July 5th:

    SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image - Page 23 Manyspots_strip3
    Circled are the sunspot groups which pose a threat for geoeffective eruptions. Each one has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field harboring energy for M-class solar flares. So far, the fireworks have been confined to Earth, but this could change before the weekend is over. 


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Mon Jul 07, 2014 10:54 pm

    WAITING FOR FLARES: For days, solar activity has been low, but the quiet seems unlikely to last. Two big sunspots, AR2108 and AR2109, have unstable "beta-gamma-delta" magnetic fields that harbor energy for strong, Earth-directed eruptions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance of M-flares and a 10% chance of X-flares on July 7th. 

    BRIGHT NOTILUCENT CLOUDS: Last night, another bright display of noctilucent clouds lit up the skies over Europe. The luminous ripples were so bright, "they actually lit up my room a blue colour," reports UK photographer Mark Savage. Click on this photo to set the clouds in motion over his hometown, Gateshead, England:

    SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image - Page 23 Brightblue_strip2

    "This was the best display of noctilucent clouds I've seen for a number of years," he says. Similar reports have been received from Poland, Scotland, Russia and other parts of Europe.

    July is the best month of the year for noctilucent clouds in the northern hemisphere. So far, the vast majority of sightings have been in Europe. It is only a matter of time however, before the electric-blue ripples spread to North America. Observing tips:Look west 30 to 60 minutes after sunset when the Sun has dipped 6o to 16o below the horizon. If you see luminous blue-white tendrils spreading across the sky, you may have spotted a noctilucent cloud.


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Thu Jul 31, 2014 7:46 am

    SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image - Page 23 Cme_strip2

    DUE TODAY: NEW IMAGE OF THE ROSETTA COMET: The European Space Agency's Rosetta spacecraft is now less than 1600 km from Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. In only 6 days, Rosetta will reach the comet's core and go into orbit around it. A new high-resolution image of the comet is due to be released today. Look for it @ESA_Rosetta.


    INCOMING STORM CLOUD: Yesterday, July 30th, a dark magnetic filament on the sun erupted and hurled part of itself into space. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory tracked a bright CME moving away from the blast site at 700 km/s:  Although the CME is not coming straight for Earth, it does have an Earth-directed component. Computer models suggest it will deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on August 2nd. NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% chance of polar geomagnetic storms when the storm cloud arrives.


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Wed Sep 17, 2014 8:37 am

    SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image - Page 23 Cme_anim

    INCOMING CME: Another CME is en route to Earth. It was launched in our direction four days ago by the eruption of a magnetic filament near the center of the solar disk. This movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory shows the Earth-directed CME almost overwhelmed, visually, by a brighter farside CME headed in the opposite direction:

    SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image - Page 23 Cme_strip

    The impact won't be as effective as the double-blow Earth experienced on Sept. 12th, when two CMEs hit in less than 24 hours. Nevertheless, NOAA forecasters estimate a 50% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Sept. 17th when the CME arrives. (Note: Yesterday we wrote that the CME would arrive on Sept. 16th, however, a revised analysis of its speed suggests a later arrival.) High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras. 

    MINOR STORM WARNING: A slow-moving CME propelled toward Earth by an erupting magnetic filament on the sun is expected to arrive today, Sept. 17th. NOAA forecasters estimate a 50% chance of minor geomagnetic storms in response to the sluggish impact. 


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Fri Sep 26, 2014 1:51 pm

    FAST-GROWNG SUNSPOT: New sunspot AR2175 didn't exist one day ago. Now it stretches more than 100,000 km across the face of the sun with a primary dark core larger than Earth. The fast-growing region has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares.


    FIRST LIGHT FOR MAVEN: A key goal of NASA's MAVEN spacecraft is to learn how space weather affects the upper atmosphere of Mars. Just days after MAVEN reached the Red Planet, the data are starting to flow. "Our Imaging Ultraviolet Spectrograph (IUVS) instrument obtained these false-color images of Mars on Sept. 22nd," says Nick Schneider who leads the IUVS team at the University of Colorado. "They trace the distribution of two important gases, hydrogen and oxygen."

    SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image - Page 23 Maven_strip
    Image credit: Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, U. Colorado; NASA
    "The oxygen gas is held close to the planet by Mars's gravity, while lighter hydrogen gas expands to higher altitudes and extends past the edges of the image," he explains. "These gases come from the breakdown of water and carbon dioxide in Mars's atmosphere."
    Billions of years ago, Mars was blanketed an atmosphere massive enough to warm the planet and allow liquid water to flow on its surface. Today, only a tiny fraction of that ancient air remains. Where did it go? One possibility is space weather: Solar storms and the relentless buffeting of solar wind might have stripped away much of the planet's gaseous envelope.

    The IUVS might be able to see this process in action--especially in the aftermath of a CME strike. "We expect to see something!" says Schneider. "MAVEN's primary science goal is to see how the atmosphere responds to solar forcing. So on the one hand, a CME might strip way the outermost layers of the atmosphere. On the other, it might also energize the atmosphere below and repopulate the extended atmosphere with a lot of new material." Either way, IUVS can observe what happens.

    The instrument is also capable of observing martian auroras. "We're on the edges of our seats, hoping for our first detection," he says. Stay tuned!

    Solar wind speed: 445.4 km/sec


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Tue Oct 21, 2014 10:16 am

    PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE: This Thursday Oct. 23rd, the Moon will pass in front of the sun, off center, producing a partial solar eclipse visible from almost all of North America. Get the full story from Science@NASA.

    MONSTER SUNSPOT: The biggest sunspot of the current solar cycle is turning toward Earth. This morning when astronomer Karzaman Ahmad of Malaysia's Langkawi Nagtional Observatory looked through the eyepiece of his solar telescope, he declared AR2192 a "monster" and snapped this picture:
    SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image - Page 23 Monster_strip

    This behemoth active region is 125,000 km wide, almost as big as the planet Jupiter. These dimensions make it an easy target for backyard solar telescopes--hence so many pictures in the realtime photo gallery.

    A few days ago, AR2192 unleashed an X1-class solar flare. Since then the sunspot has almost doubled in size and developed an increasingly unstable 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field. It would seem to be just a matter of time before another strong explosion occurs. NOAA forecasters estimate at 60% chance of M-class flares and a 20% chance of X-flares on Oct. 21st.


    Solar wind speed: 618.8 km/sec


    _________________
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    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Fri Oct 24, 2014 7:20 pm

    CHANCE OF FLARES: Giant sunspot AR2192 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong explosions. NOAA forecasters estimate an 85% chance of M-class flares and a 45% chance of X-flares on Oct. 24th. If an explosion does occur, it will be geoeffective because the sunspot is directly facing Earth.

    SUNSET SOLAR ECLIPSE: Yesterday, Oct. 23rd, the New Moon passed in front of the sun, producing a partial solar eclipse visible from almost all of North America. The eclipse was particularly beautiful in eastern parts of the continent where maximum coverage occurred at sunset. "Setting over Hamilton Harbour, the eclipsed sun cast a beautiful orange glow over the end of the perfect autumn day," says John Gauvreau, who sends this picture from Ontario, Canada:

    SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image - Page 23 Sunseteclipse_strip
    "Magnificent sunspots, magnificent weather, magnificent eclipse!" he says.
    Millions of sky watchers in Canada, the USA and Mexico witnessed the afternoon crescent, with coverage ranging from 12% in Florida to nearly 70% in Alaska. 


    _________________
    What is life?
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    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Thu Nov 06, 2014 10:46 am

    HIGH SOLAR ACTIVITY: Solar activity is intensifying. Sunspot AR2205 has unleashed at least 4 strong M-class solar flares in the past 24 hours (Nov. 5-6), and it appears that stronger explosions could be in the offing. NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% chance of X-flares on Nov. 6th.
    MOONLIT AURORAS: Earth is passing through a fast-moving stream of solar wind, and this is stirring auroras around the Arctic Circle bright enough to see through the glare of the nearly-full Moon. Tour guide Gunnar Hildonen sends this picture from Tromso, Norway:

    SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image - Page 23 Moonlit_strip
    "Lady Aurora just got crazy in the eastern sky," says Hildonen. "Several of my guests were close to crying. It was pink and violet Rock-n-Roll, and it felt like it should never stop. Yes, I am very glad that I have this job."
    The moonlight is intensifying ahead of this Thursday's full Moon, but the auroras might be intensifying, too. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of geomagnetic storms on Nov. 4-5 as the solar wind continues to blow.


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    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Mon Nov 10, 2014 9:27 am

    CHANCE OF FLARES: Sunspot AR2205 was mostly quiet over the weekend, but it still poses a threat for potent eruptions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 70% chance of M-class flares and a 30% chance of X-flares on Nov. 10th. Any eruptions will likely be geoeffective as the sunspot is directly facing Earth.


    CME TARGETS EARTH, AFTER ALL: On Nov. 7th, when an X-flare from AR2205 hurled a CME into space, at first it appeared that the cloud would miss Earth. Follow-up computer modeling by NOAA analysts suggests that the CME might deliver a glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field after all. A complete forecast follows this movie of the eruption recorded by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory:


    SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image - Page 23 Cme_strip2


    The CME left the sun traveling approximately 600 km/s (1.3 million mph) albeit not directly along the sun-Earth line. If the computer models are correct, the outskirts of the cloud should reach Earth mid-day on Nov. 10th (Universal Time). First contact could spark a G2-class geomagnetic storm on Nov. 10th subsiding to G1-class on Nov. 11th. NOAA forecasters are citing storm probabilities as high as 75%.


    These storms in the forecast are mild, not extreme, so there is no danger of power outages or communications blackouts. However, the CME impact could spark some beautiful auroras around the Arctic Circle. The lights might even spill across the Canadian border into northern-tier US states such as Maine, Michigan, Minnesota and the Dakotas.


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    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Mon Dec 01, 2014 9:22 am

    CHANCE OF FLARES: Two sunspots poised to explode are turning toward Earth. Click on the arrow to set the sun in motion, and watch the circled regions advance:

    SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image - Page 23 Doublespot2_strip

    Active regions AR2221 and AR2222 have unstable 'beta-gamma' magnetic fields that harbor energy for M-class flares; they could "go off" at any moment. NOAA forecasters estimate a 45% to 50% chance of M-flares during the next 24 hours. Any eruptions from the duo will probably be Earth-directed as they continue to turn toward our planet. 


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Sat Dec 06, 2014 11:55 am

    GROWING PERIL FOR ASTRONAUTS? NASA's successful test flight of Orion on Dec. 5th heralds a renewed capability to send astronauts into deep space. A paper just published in the journal Space Weather, however, points out a growing peril to future deep space explorers: cosmic rays. 

    The title of the article, penned by Nathan Schwadron of the University of New Hampshire and colleagues from seven other institutions, asks the provocative question, "Does the worsening galactic cosmic ray environment preclude manned deep space exploration?" Using data from a cosmic ray telescope onboard NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, they conclude that while increasing fluxes of cosmic rays "are not a show stopper for long duration missions (e.g., to the Moon, an asteroid, or Mars), galactic cosmic radiation remains a significant and worsening factor that limits mission durations." This figure from their paper shows the number of days a 30 year old astronaut can spend in interplanetary space before they reach their career limit in radiation exposure:
    SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image - Page 23 Missionduration_strip
    According to the plot, in the year 2014, a 30 year-old male flying in a spaceship with 10 g/cm2 of aluminum shielding could spend approximately 700 days in deep space before they reach their radiation dose limit. The same astronaut in the early 1990s could have spent 1000 days in space before hitting their personal radiation limits. 

    What's going on? Cosmic rays are intensifying. Galactic cosmic rays are a mixture of high-energy photons and subatomic particles accelerated to near-light speed by violent events such as supernova explosions. Astronauts are protected from cosmic rays in part by the sun: solar magnetic fields and the solar wind combine to create a porous 'shield' that fends off energetic particles from deep space. The problem is, as the authors note, "The Sun and its solar wind are currently exhibiting extremely low densities and magnetic field strengths, representing states that have never been observed during the Space Age. As a result of the remarkably weak solar activity, we have also observed the highest fluxes of cosmic rays in the Space Age." 

    The shielding action of the sun is strongest during solar maximum and weakest during solar minimum--hence the 11-year rhythm of the mission duration plot. The current situation could become even worse if, as some researchers suspect, the sun is entering a long-term phase of the solar cycle characterized by relatively weak solar maxima and deep, extended solar minima. In such a future, feeble solar magnetic fields would do an extra-poor job keeping cosmic rays at bay, further reducing the number of days astronauts can travel far from Earth. 

    To learn more about this interesting research, read the complete article in the online edition of Space Weather.


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    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  Carol Tue Mar 17, 2015 11:28 pm

    Powerful space storm hits Earth

    Posted: Mar 17, 2015 5:22 AM HST

    NEW YORK (MYFOXNY) -
    A geomagnetic storm that government scientists rate as severe hit the planet on Tuesday morning.

    The storm rated as a G4 on a NOAA scale, which tops out at G5. It's the strongest storm that's happened in the current solar cycle, which lasts about 11 years.

    The Space Weather Prediction Center says that the storm is from sun activity that started on March 15. Two magnetic eruptions occurred in quick succession. They combined into one larger eruption before intersecting the Earth's orbit on Tuesday.

    The storm arrived earlier (10 a.m. EDT) and was stronger than predicted. The storm could last 24-36 hours.

    It warned that there could be possible widespread voltage control problems at power systems and some protective systems could trip out key assets from the grid but that appeared to not be happening.

    "We are receiving no reports of abnormality or disconnects on the power grid," NOAA's Tom Burger said at a Tuesday afternoon press briefing.

    Spacecraft could also experience surface charging and tracking problems and corrections may be needed for orientation problems.

    It warned that satellite navigation systems could be affected for hours and low-frequency radio navigation disrupted.

    It also said that the aurora could be seen as far south as California because of the storm. Images on Twitter showed it was visible in the pre-dawn hours in Washington state.

    There were other reports of the aurora being seen in Minnesota, North and South Dakota, and Alaska.

    Widespread areas of Northern Europe were expected to see the aurora later Tuesday.

    NOAA scientists say that depending on how long it lasts and how intense the storm continued to be, states as far south as from Alabama to northern California on Tuesday night.

    A less severe storm hit Earth on January 7. That storm was classified as a G3. NOAA said that it has been about a decade since a G5 storm hit the planet.


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    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Post  mudra Wed Apr 29, 2015 8:45 am

    SOLAR UPDATE: CME Alert, Earthquake Alert, Volcano Alert


    We have a massive Filament just slightly towards the eastern limb of the sun- almost directly earth facing, AND we have a series of large Coronal Holes, running from the very north pole of the sun to the equatorial region.  We have no active flare zones at the moment, but I do expect that this Filament will rip off very soon- possibly throwing a huge CME that would be directly geoeffective towards earth.   Add to that the solar particle streams from the coronal hole and it could be a major combo.  We already have active solar X-rays streaming in.



    SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image - Page 23 F_211_193_171_1024



    We have seen a ridiculously HUGE amount of Earth quakes in the past 72 hours of magnitude 5 and UP and volcanoes erupting in 36 different locations globally.  IF this filament rips off with a CME launched, we could have yet another round of very powerful earthquakes.   The pacific circle is SERIOUSLY messed up right now!!!!




    SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image - Page 23 Earthquakes%2B72%2Bhours

    SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image - Page 23 Volcanos%2B36%2Bactive%2Bmaps


    NEWS FLASH..... literally


    Just less than an hour ago a smaller filament separated from the sun, and has produced an incoming CME (Coronal Mass Ejection)- I do not have the details yet of just how geoeffective the CME will be with Earth, but as soon as I have the information I will update this article.   The large Filament is still hanging on.... by a thread and I highly doubt it will last another day before it too separates from the Sun.   We also experienced a huge proton spike at around 2pm UTC ....Again, I will keep everyone updated as soon as I have new information.


    SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image - Page 23 Proton%2Bspike%2Bapril%2B28%2B2015


    This was just updated on Solarham:

    A large filament located in the northeast quadrant is now in the process of lifting off of from the sun. Sometimes following such events, intense brightening within the chromosphere near the location of the eruption, also known as a hyder flare can take place. On the other hand, plasma may be reabsorbed by the sun with little to no coronal mass ejection (CME) produced. What will happen? Stay tuned to find out.
    read on  Arrow http://removingtheshackles.blogspot.be/2015/04/solar-update-cme-alert-earthquake-alert.html

    Love Always
    mudra



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    Post  Carol Tue May 05, 2015 8:15 pm

    MINOR STORM WARNING:A pulse of X-rays from the flare caused a strong radio blackout over western parts of North America and the entirety of the Pacific Ocean. This map shows the extent of the blackout, which affected frequencies mainly below 10 MHz. This is the type of event that mariners, aviators, and ham radio operators might have noticed.

    The explosion probably hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) into space, but coronagraph data are not yet available to confirm.
    A coronal mass ejection (CME) hurled into space by a solar filament eruption on May 2nd is heading for Earth. ETA: May 6th. NOAA forecasters estimate a 45% chance of minor geomagnetic storms when the cloud arrives

    X-FLARE! The sun is no longer quiet. Emerging sunspot AR2339 unleashed an intense X2-class solar flare on May 5th at 22:15 UT. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the extreme ultraviolet flash:

    SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image - Page 23 X2


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol

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