SOHO LASCO C2 Latest Image

CHANCE OF FLARES: A pair of sunspots pointing almost-directly at Earth poses a threat for strong solar flares. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed the two active regions, AR1861 and AR1865, on Oct. 12th: Sunspot AR1865 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares, while AR1861 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field capable of powering M-class eruptions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of M-class flares and a 15% chance of X-flares on Oct. 12th. Solar wind flowing from coronal hole should reach Earth on Oct. 15-16.

MORNING CONJUNCTION: Earth is entering the outskirts of a debris stream from Halley's comet, source of the annual Orionid meteor shower. Last night, Oct. 12th, cameras in NASA's All-Sky Fireball Network detected two bright Orionid fireballs over the United States. The shower is expected to peak this year on Oct. 21st with ~20 meteors per hour between local midnight and dawn. An almost-full Moon on peak night will sharply reduce visibility, so watch out for the early Orionids. They might be the only ones you see.

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CHANCE OF STORMS: NOAA Forecasters estimate a 20% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on October 15th when a minor CME is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. The cloud of plasma was hurled in our direction by an M1-class eruption from sunspot AR1865. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras. Solar wind speed: 483.9 km/sec density: 5.2 protons/cm3

ACTIVE SUNSPOT: The CME due to hit Earth on Oct 15th was hurled toward our planet by Earth-facing sunspot AR1865. The sunspot has an unstable 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that is crackling with M- and C-class solar flares. Click to view a sampling of activity on Oct 14th: Stronger eruptions could be in the offing. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of M-class flares and a 10% chance of X-flares on Oct. 14th.

CRACKLING SUNSPOT: Sunspot AR1865 is crackling with C- and M-class solar flares, at least one every few hours. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the extreme UV flash from this M1-flare at 23:36 UT on Oct. 15th: The UV pulse from this flare caused a minor wave of ionization in Earth's upper atmosphere over the Pacific side of our planet, but otherwise no effects.

Stronger flares could be in the offing. The sunspot has an unstable 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class eruptions. By crackling, however, the active region might be "blowing off steam" that prevents a really big blast. NOAA forecasters estimate a mere 1% chance of X-class flares in the next 24 hours. Solar wind speed: 461.6 km/sec

CHANCE OF FLARES: Fast-growing sunspot AR1875 (movie) has developed a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy strong explosions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% chance of M-class solar flares and a 5% chance of X-flares on Oct. 22nd.

COMET EXPLOSION: Almost 450 million km from Earth, Comet C/2012 X1 (LINEAR) has exploded. Amateur astronomers are reporting a 100-fold increase in the comet's brightness compared to predictions, and the comet's atmosphere or "coma" now resembles that of exploding Comet 17P/Holmes in 2007. Using a remotely-controlled 0.5 meter telescope in New Mexico, European observers Ernesto Guido, Martino Nicolini and Nick Howes took this picture of the spherical explosion on Oct 21st:
The predicted magnitude of the comet on Oct. 20th was about +14," says Guido. "Now it is close to +8.5." This is below the threshold for naked-eye visibility, but bright enough for backyard telescopes equipped with digital cameras.

Prompted by the reports of Guido et al, Romanian amateur astronomer Maximilian Teodorescu observed the comet on Oct. 22nd, confirming its brightness and spherical structure: image. "It looked exactly like Comet Holmes back in 2007," says Teodorescu.

Located in the constellation Coma Berenices, Comet LINEAR X1 rises in the east about an hour before the sun. The low altitude of the comet in morning twilight is a challenge. "I could not see the comet through the eyepiece of my 4.5 inch refracting telescope," adds Teodorescu, "but the camera detected it easily enough." The comet could become brighter in the days ahead as its coma expands. Monitoring is encouraged.

CHANCE OF STORMS: Earth's magnetic field is about to receive a glancing blow from three CMEs observed leaving the Sun between Oct. 20th and 22nd. Forecast models suggest that the three clouds merged en route to Earth, and their combined impact could trigger a mild polar geomagnetic storm on Oct. 24-25. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras. Aurora alerts: text, voice.

SOLAR FLARE! Solar activity is high. On October 24th at 00:30 UT, Earth-facing sunspot AR1877 erupted, producing a powerful M9-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the blast:

Update #1: The eruption hurled a faint CME into space and it appears to be heading toward Earth. The arrival time is not yet known.

Update #2: NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory has released a full-disk movie of the explosion. Play it.
http://www.spaceweather.com/images2013/24oct13/global.mov?PHPSESSID=cmn7rvddsqb35o585aaddvgq87

More flares are in the offing. Two large sunspots, AR1875 and AR1877, have 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic fields that harbor energy for strong eruptions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of M-flares and a 5% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours.

SPOOKY AURORAS? NOAA forcasters estimate a 25% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Oct. 31st when a CME is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. It was propelled in our direction by an M4-class flare from sunspot AR1882 on Oct. 28th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on Halloween.

ANOTHER X-FLARE: Consider it a parting shot. Just before sunspot AR1875 rotated over the sun's western limb on Oct. 29th, it unleashed a powerful X2-class solar flare. NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the explosion's extreme ultraviolet flash: X-rays and UV radiation from the flare ionized the top of our planet's atmosphere. Waves of ionization disturbed the normal propagation of radio waves over the Americas and the Pacific, and may have caused an HF communications blackout over the poles.

The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) recorded a bright CME emerging from the blast site. Given the sunspot's location on sun's western limb, however, it is unlikely the CME will reach our planet. Analysts at NOAA are busy evaluating the possibility of a glancing blow in the days ahead.

Sunspot AR1875 has left the Earthside of the sun, but other active sunspots remain. NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance of M-class flares and a 25% chance of X-flares on Oct. 30th.

SOLAR FLARE CAUSES RARE 'MAGNETIC CROCHET': On Nov. 5th at 22:12 UT, the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR1890 erupted, producing a brief but intense X3-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash: Radiation from the flare caused a surge in the ionization of Earth's upper atmosphere--and this led to a rare magnetic crochet. Alexander Avtanski observed the effect using a homemade magnetometer in San Jose, California. A magnetic crochet is a disturbance in Earth's magnetic field caused by electrical currents flowing in air 60 km to 100 km above our heads. Unlike geomagnetic disturbances that arrive with CMEs days after a flare, a magnetic crochet occurs while the flare is in progress. They tend to occur during fast impulsive flares like this one. Solar wind flowing from coronal hole could reach Earth on Nov. 7-8

Solar wind
speed: 335.5 km/sec

AURORA WATCH: NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% of polar geomagnetic storms on Nov. 10th as a stream of solar wind buffets Earth's magnetic field. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

YET ANOTHER X-FLARE: As predicted, sunspot AR1890 has unleashed another strong flare, an X1-class explosion on Nov. 10th at 05:14 UT. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded a bright flash of extreme ultraviolet radiation from the blast site: The flare also produced a strong burst of ~300 MHz radio waves, recorded at the Mauritius Radio Telescope on the island of Mauritius in the Indian Ocean: data.

This is the third X-flare from AR1890 since Nov. 5th, and all three have something in common: brevity. AR1890 tends to produce impulsive flares, peaking sharply in a matter of minutes or less. Often, brief flares do not produce coronal mass ejections (CMEs), but this one is an exception. A movie of the flare shows a plume of material lifting off the sun shortly after the UV flash. Update: A faint CME associated with that plume could deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on Nov. 12th or 13th. Stay tuned for further analysis.

Solar wind speed: 492.2 km/sec

CHANCE OF FLARES: NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance of M-class flares and a 30% chance of X-flares on Nov. 11th. The most likely source is active sunspot AR1890, which has already produced three X-flares since Nov. 5th. In addition, a new flare threat is emerging over the sun's southeastern limb: Sunspot group AR1895 appears to be big and potent enough to produce some explosions of its own in the days ahead. Sunspot AR1890 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Emerging sunspot AR1895 appears to be a big one and could also pose a threat for strong flares. Solar wind flowing from the coronal hole could reach Earth on Nov. 16th. Solar wind speed: 485.1 km/sec

November 11, 2013 – SPACE – Something is up with the sun. Scientists say that solar activity is stranger than in a century or more, with the sun producing barely half the number of sunspots as expected and its magnetic poles oddly out of sync. The sun generates immense magnetic fields as it spins. Sunspots—often broader in diameter than Earth—mark areas of intense magnetic force that brew disruptive solar storms. These storms may abruptly lash their charged particles across millions of miles of space toward Earth, where they can short-circuit satellites, smother cellular signals or damage electrical systems. Based on historical records, astronomers say the sun this fall ought to be nearing the explosive climax of its approximate 11-year cycle of activity—the so-called solar maximum. But this peak is “a total punk,” said Jonathan Cirtain, who works at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration as project scientist for the Japanese satellite Hinode, which maps solar magnetic fields. “I would say it is the weakest in 200 years,” said David Hathaway, head of the solar physics group at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala. Researchers are puzzled. They can’t tell if the lull is temporary or the onset of a decades-long decline, which might ease global warming a bit by altering the sun’s brightness or the wavelengths of its light.

“There is no scientist alive who has seen a solar cycle as weak as this one,” said Andrés Munoz-Jaramillo, who studies the solar-magnetic cycle at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Mass. To complicate the riddle, the sun also is undergoing one of its oddest magnetic reversals on record. Normally, the sun’s magnetic north and south poles change polarity every 11 years or so. During a magnetic-field reversal, the sun’s polar magnetic fields weaken, drop to zero, and then emerge again with the opposite polarity. As far as scientists know, the magnetic shift is notable only because it signals the peak of the solar maximum, said Douglas Biesecker at NASA’s Space Environment Center. But in this cycle, the sun’s magnetic poles are out of sync, solar scientists said. The sun’s north magnetic pole reversed polarity more than a year ago, so it has the same polarity as the South Pole. “The delay between the two reversals is unusually long,” said solar physicist Karel Schrijver at the Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center in Palo Alto, Calif.  Scientists said they are puzzled, but not concerned, by the unusual delay. They expect the sun’s South Pole to change polarity next month, based on current satellite measurements of its shifting magnetic fields. At the same time, scientists can’t explain the scarcity of sunspots. While still turbulent, the sun seems feeble compared with its peak power in previous decades. “It is not just that there are fewer sunspots, but they are less active sunspots,” Dr. Schrijver said. However, the sun isn’t idle: After months of quiescence, it unleashed vast streams of charged particles into space five times in as many days last month, and flared again last week. Even so, these outbursts exhibited a fraction of the force of previous solar maximums. -WSJ

November 16, 2013 – SPACE – Sun is set to “flip upside down” within weeks as its magnetic field reverses polarity in an event that will send ripple effects throughout the solar system. Although it may sound like a catastrophic occurrence, there’s no need to run for cover. The sun switches its polarity, flipping its magnetic north and south, once every eleven years through an internal mechanism about which little is understood. The swap could however cause intergalactic weather fronts such as geomagnetic storms, which can interfere with satellites and cause radio blackouts. NASA said in August that the change would happen in three to four months time, but it is impossible to give a more specific date. Scientist won’t know for around another three weeks whether the flip is complete. The solar flip incidentally coincides with the near approach of Comet Ison. It’s unknown what effect, if any, solar behavior will have on the comet. The impact of the solar shake-up will be widespread, as the sun’s magnetic field exerts influence well beyond Pluto, and past NASA’s Voyager probes positioned near the edge of interstellar space.

The event will be watched closely by researchers at Stanford University’s Wilcox Solar Observatory, which monitors the sun’s magnetic field on a daily basis. Todd Hoeksema, director of the Wilcox Solar Observatory, said the polarity change is built up throughout the eleven year cycle through areas of intense magnetic activity known as sunspots which gradually move towards the poles, eroding the existing opposite polarity. Eventually, the magnetic field reduces to zero, before rebounding with the opposite polarity. “It’s kind of like a tide coming in or going out,” Hoeksema said. “Each little wave brings a little more water in, and eventually you get to the full reversal.” One of the most noticeable effect on Earth will be a boost in the occurrence, range and visibility of auroras – the Northern Lights. “It’s not a catastrophic event, it’s a large scale event that has some real implications, but it’s not something we need to worry about,” added Hoeksema. –Independent, TEP http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/sun-will-flip-upside-down-within-weeks-says-nasa-8942769.html

CHANCE OF FLARES: A cluster of active sunspots has just rotated off the Earthside of the sun. The remaining sunspots facing Earth are quiet, prompting NOAA forecasters to downgrade the chance of geoeffective flares. The odds of an X-class eruption today are no more than 1%.

SOLAR FLEET PICKS UP COMET ISON:"The dark 'clouds' of stuff you see coming from the right are density enhancements in the solar wind, and these are what are causing all the ripples you see in comet Encke's tail," explains Karl Battams of NASA's Comet ISON Observing Campaign. "I can pretty much promise you that we're going to see ISON's tail doing that in a couple of day's time, but on a much larger scale!"

Battams points out another exciting development: Comet Encke and Comet ISON are converging for a photogenic close encounter. "No they're not going to hit each other - in reality they are millions of miles apart - but as seen from the STEREO-A spacecraft, they are going to get very close!" he says. "We are probably a couple of days away from seeing two comets almost side-by-side in that camera, with long tails flowing behind them in the solar wind. To say that such an image will be unprecedented is rather an understatement." Because NASA's twin STEREO probes are designed to observe the sun, they can see sundiving comets even when the glare becomes intense. Yesterday, Comet ISON joined Earth, Mercury, and Comet Encke in the field of view of STEREO-A's Heliospheric Imager. Click on the image to view ISON's grand entrance:

ISON, THE DAWN COMET: Comet ISON is plunging toward the sun and brightening as it heads for a perilous close encounter on Nov. 28th. Yesterday morning, with the "final countdown" clock at T-7 days, Juan Carlos Casado photographed the sundiver over the Teide Observatory in the Canary Islands:

"The comet is over the distant island of Gran Canaria," he says, "while in the central cloud we can see the planet Mercury. ISON was at the limit of naked-eye visibility, but it was an easy target for my SLR camera with a small telephoto lens (85 mm focal length) on a static tripod and 6 seconds of exposure."

Because Comet ISON is moving into the rosy glow of dawn, it will soon be impossible for cameras on Earth to track it. Fortunately, NASA's fleet of solar spacecraft are able to follow the comet into the glare. NASA's STEREO-A spacecraft has already picked up Comet ISON. In the days ahead, STEREO-B, SOHO and the Solar Dynamics Observatory will join the hunt, providing continuous views all the way to perihelion (closest approach to the sun) on Nov. 28th.

COMET ISON, R.I.P.: Following its Thanksgiving Day brush with solar fire, sundiving Comet ISON is now just a cloud of dust. Among experts, a consensus is building that the comet broke apart shortly before perihelion (closest approach to the sun). In the movie, note how rapidly the comet fades just before it vanishes behind the occulting disk of the SOHO coronagraph: After perihelion, the comet emerges as a diffuse remnant of its former self. No one knows for sure what is inside that fan-shaped cloud. Possibilities include a small remnant nucleus or a "rubble pile" of furiously vaporizing fragments. By the end of the day on Nov. 28th, Comet ISON was spent.

As of Dec. 2nd, the cloud of debris is no brighter than a star of approximately 8th magnitude. Experienced astrophotographers might be able to capture the comet's fading "ghost" in the pre-dawn sky of early December, but a naked-eye spectacle is out of the question.

MOSTLY QUIET: With no sunspots actively flaring, the Earthside of the sun is quiet. However, two sunspots (AR1908 and AR1909) have 'beta-gamma' magnetic fields that harbor energy for moderately strong eruptions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% chance of M-class solar flares on Dec. 3rd. Solar wind speed: 401.5 km/sec

RARE V-SHAPED SUN HALO: At the end of Thanksgiving Day when the sun was setting over Sumterville, Florida, Paula Phillips took a break from her meal, stepped outside and saw something odd--a pair of luminous 'Vs' in the deepening twilight: "I've never seen anything like this before," says Phillips. "I photographed the phenomenon with a simple small Samsung camera."

They're sun halos, caused by sunlight shining through ice crystals. Atmospheric optics expert Les Cowley explains:

"These two ‘V’ shaped halos, one rare and one common, change shape dramatically as the sun climbs," he says. "Near sunrise or sunset is the only time to catch them like this. The lower ‘V’ is an upper tangent arc from horizontal hexagonal prisms of ice. The upper one is a rare sunvex Parry arc from similar crystals that - strangely – are fixed so that two prism faces are always horizontal. In the full-sized image, we also see just a trace of a 22o halo and stretching upwards from the sun a sun pillar."

"I find it odd that I saw this in Florida!" continues Phillips. Yet Florida has ice crystal, too. The atmosphere 5 to 10 km above the Sunshine State is always cole enough for water to freeze.

"Florida and other warm places get plenty of halos--some of them exceedingly rare," says Cowley. "Look for them everywhere, winter and summer."

ELECTRIC-BLUE CLOUDS OVER ANTARCTICA: The season for noctilucent clouds has begun in the southern hemisphere. NASA's AIM spacecraft is monitoring a vast bank of rippling electric-blue NLCs blanketing almost all of Antarctica. This two week movie chronicles the onset of the clouds in late November and their rapid spread into December: NLCs are Earth's highest clouds. Seeded by "meteor smoke," they form at the edge of space 83 km above Earth's surface. When sunlight hits the tiny ice crystals that make up these clouds, they glow electric blue.

NLCs appear during summer because that is when water molecules are wafted up from the lower atmosphere to mix with the meteor smoke. That is also, ironically, the time when the upper atmosphere is coldest, allowing the ice crystals of NLCs to form.

In recent years NLCs have intensified. Some researchers believe this is a sign of climate change. One of the greenhouse gases that has become more abundant in Earth's atmosphere since the 19th century is methane. "When methane makes its way into the upper atmosphere, it is oxidized by a complex series of reactions to form water vapor," explains Hampton University Professor James Russell, the principal investigator of AIM."This extra water vapor is then available to grow ice crystals for NLCs."

Spewing solar wind, a significant coronal hole is emerging over the sun's NE limb.

HERE COME THE GEMINIDS: Earth is entering a stream of debris from rock comet 3200 Phaethon, source of the annual Geminid meteor shower. Forecasters expect the shower to peak on Dec. 13-14 with as many as 120 meteors per hour. Lunar interference will be a problem, as glare from the nearly-full Moon reduces the number of visible meteors 2- to 5-fold. You can listen to radar echoes from the Geminids, unaffected by moonlight

INCOMING CMES, CHANCE OF STORMS: Yesterday, December 12th, a pair of magnetic filaments on the sun erupted in quick succession between 0300 UT and 0630 UT. The explosions hurled a pair of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) into space. SOHO recorded the clouds racing away from the sun at approximately 1.1 million mph (500 km/s): Although neither explosion was squarely Earth-directed, the two clouds could deliver glancing blows to Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 14th or (more likely) the 15th. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of polar geomagnetic storms when the clouds arrive.

ELECTRIC-BLUE CLOUDS OVER ANTARCTICA: A vast bank of electric-blue clouds has appeared over the south pole, signaling the start of the season for southern noctilucent clouds. According to data from NASA's AIM spacecraft, the clouds appeared earlier than usual this year. Researchers say this could be a sign of climate change: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GHpxD807kM4

The northern winter solstice is today.

SUBSIDING RADIATION STORM: An S1-class solar radiation storm that began on Dec. 28th is subsiding. The storm was sparked by a magnetic explosion near the sun's western limb, which accelerated solar protons toward Earth. Our planet is now exiting the swarm of energetic particles.

INCREASING CHANCE OF FLARES: Sunspots AR1934 and AR1936 have grown significantly in the past 24 hours, each more than doubling in area as dozens of new dark cores add themselves to the two active regions. Click on the image to review the developments: Sunspot AR1934 has developed a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for powerful X-class solar flares. Sunspot AR1936 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for lesser M-class flares. Nevertheless, AR1936 poses the greater threat to Earth because it is directly facing our planet. Indeed, an M3-class flare from this sunspot on Dec. 29th created a wave of ionization in the upper atmosphere over Asia, the Middle East and eastern Europe. More flares are in the offing.

RADIO STORMS ON JUPITER: Last week, there was a storm on Jupiter--a radio storm. Amateur radio astronomer Thomas Ashcraft recorded the event on Dec. 23rd using a shortwave radio telescope located in New Mexico. Click on the image to hear the whooshing, crackling, popping sounds that emerged from his telescope's loudspeaker:



"Although few were aware of it, Earth was bathed in Jovian radio beams for an hour and half," says Ashcraft. "The audio recording captures the sounds I heard during one minute around 09:30 UT."

Jupiter's radio storms are caused by natural radio lasers in the planet's magnetosphere that sweep past Earth as Jupiter rotates. Electrical currents flowing between Jupiter's upper atmosphere and the volcanic moon Io can boost these emissions to power levels easily detected by ham radio antennas on Earth. Jovian "S-bursts" (short bursts) and "L-bursts" (long bursts) mimic the sounds of woodpeckers, whales, and waves crashing on the beach. Here are a few audio samples: S-bursts, S-bursts (slowed down 128:1), L-Bursts

Now is a good time to listen to Jupiter's radio storms. The distance between Earth and Jupiter is decreasing as the giant planet approaches opposition on Jan. 5th; and the closer Jupiter comes, the louder it gets. Jupiter is a bit like a lighthouse. It is possible to predict when the planet's most intense radio beams will sweep past Earth. The next storm is due on Dec. 30th between 10:00 and 11:00 UT. NASA's Radio Jove Project explains how to build your own receiver.

SUBSIDING PROTONS, MORE TO COME? Energetic protons are swarming past Earth in the aftermath of a magnetic explosion on the sun's western limb on Dec. 28th: movie. At its peak, the radiation storm registered "S1" on NOAA storm scales, which is to say it was a minor event with minimal effects on Earth-orbiting satellites and aviation. The storm is subsiding now. Stronger radiation storms are possible in the days ahead, however, as potent sunspot AR1934 rotates toward the western limb--a place with a strong magnetic connection to Earth. Flares from AR1934 could send more protons in our direction. Sunspots AR1934 and AR1936 have complex magnetic fields that harbor energy for M- and X-class

COMING SOON--THE FIRST AURORAS OF 2014: Magnetic fields in the sun's northern hemisphere have opened up, creating a vast hole in the sun's atmosphere--a coronal hole. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory is monitoring the UV-dark gap: Coronal holes are places where magnetic fields threading through the sun's atmosphere spread apart and allow solar wind to escape. A stream of solar wind flowing from this particular coronal hole could reach Earth on Jan. 2-3, possibly sparking polar geomagnetic storms. The first auroras of 2014 are in the offing

HUGE SUNSPOT TARGETS EARTH: Although AR1944 has been mostly quiet for days, flares are in the offing. The sunspot has an unstable 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that could erupt at any time. NOAA forecasters estimate a 75% chance of M-class flares and a 30% chance of X-flares on Jan. 7th.

One of the biggest sunspots in years is crossing the center of the solar disk, putting Earth in the way of potential eruptions. Rocky Raybell photographed the active region named "AR1944" yesterday from his backyard in Keller, Washington: The sprawling sunspot contains dozens of dark cores, the largest big enough to swallow Earth three times over. This makes it an easy target for amateur solar telescopes -- or even regular cameras. Raybell used an SX40 digital camera on a tripod whole holding a Baader solar filer over the lens to capture his image.

X-FLARE: Giant sunspot AR1944 erupted on Jan 7th at approximately 1832 UT, producing a powerful X1-class solar flare. First-look coronagraph images from the STEREO-Ahead spacecraft appear to show a coronal mass ejection (CME) emerging from the blast site. If so, the CME is almost certainly heading for Earth. Stay tuned for updates as more data arrive from the NASA-ESA Heliophysics Fleet

4-Day movie: http://www.spaceweather.com/images2014/07jan14/ar1944_anim.gif?PHPSESSID=2sfdd04tifvk3vm9ls0qm3k2n0

The flare occurred at 1832 UT, but NASA has only released the details in the last half an hour. Not all the information has been collated at this point so updates will follow as more details become available.

Update 1: NOAA has upped the risk from further X-class flares to 50% for the next 24 hours. Risk of M-class up to 80%

- See more at: http://www.thedailysheeple.com/breaking-news-coronal-mass-ejection-heading-for-earth-as-ar1944-produces-x1-flare_012014#sthash.s62i9aYF.dpuf

STORMY SPACE WEATHER: Giant sunspot AR1944 is directly facing Earth and crackling with solar flares. Yesterday, Jan. 7th, an X1-class explosion in the sunspot's magnetic canopy hurled a CME in our direction. High-latitude sky watchers shoud be alert for auroras on Jan. 9th when the cloud is expected to arrive. NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance of polar geomagnetic storms.

The X1-flare that hurled the CME toward Earth also accelerated a swarm of high-energy protons in our direction. Effects of the proton fusillade are visible in this Jan. 7th coronagraph movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO): The "snow" in this movie is caused by solar protons striking the spacecraft's CCD camera. A veritable blizzard of speckles develops as the CME emerges into full view. Indeed, many of the protons are accelerated by shock waves at the forefront of the expanding cloud.

This ongoing radiation storm ranks S2 on NOAA storm scales. It is rich in "hard" protons with more than 100 MeV of energy, which accounts for the snowiness of the SOHO coronagraph images. According to NOAA, "passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to elevated radiation risk" during such a storm.

The source of all this activity is AR1944, one of the biggest sunspots of the past decade. The sprawling active region is more than 200,000 km wide and contains dozens of dark cores. Its primary core, all by itself, is large enough to swallow Earth three times over. To set the scale of the behemoth, Karzaman Ahmad inserted a picture of Earth in the corner of this picture he took on Jan. 7th from the Langkawi National Observatory in Malaysia:

More flares are in the offing. The sunspot has an unstable 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that is likely to erupt again today. NOAA forecasters estimate an 80% chance of M-class flares and a 50% chance of X-flares on Jan. 8th.

STORM WARNING: NOAA forecasters estimate a 90% chance of geomagnetic storms on Jan. 9th when a CME is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. The speed of the solar wind around Earth could spike to 700 km/s (1.6 million mph) shortly after the impact, sharply compressing Earth's magnetosphere. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

HUGE SUNSPOT, CHANCE OF FLARES: The source of the incoming CME is AR1944, one of the largest sunspots of the current solar cycle. The active region sprawls across more than 200,000 km of solar terrain and contains dozens of dark cores.

The largest could swallow Earth three times over. AR1944 is circled in this Jan. 9th snapshot from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory: As the image shows, the sunspot is almost directly facing Earth. This makes it a threat for geoeffective eruptions. NOAA forecasters estimate an 80% chance of M-class flares and a 50% chance of X-flares on Jan. 9th.

STRONG M-FLARE: Big sunspot AR1967 unleashed a strong M6-class solar flare on Jan. 30th at approximately 1617 UTC. The explosion, which may be seen at the end of this movie of today's solar eclipse, hurled a CME into space. Radio emissions from shock waves preceding the CME suggest that it could be leaving the sun faster than 2100 km/s (4.7 million mph). Stay tuned for updates about this potentially significant event. LUNAR TRANSIT OF THE SUN: Earlier today, the Moon eclipsed the sun. No one on Earth saw it. The "lunar transit" was only visible from space. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the whole thing from geosynchronous orbit: At maximum eclipse as much as 90% of the sun was covered. SDO is solar powered, but it did not "brown out" because mission controllers put an extra charge on the spacecraft's batteries ahead of time.

Every year, SDO observes multiple lunar transits. This one, lasting almost 2.5 hours, was the longest in the history of the spacecraft's 4 year mission.

INCOMING CME, CHANCE OF STORMS:Big sunspot AR1967 is crackling with solar flares and hurling CMEs into space. The biggest CME so far was propelled away from the sun on Jan. 30th by an M6-class explosion in the sunspot's magnetic canopy. It is expected to reach Earth on Feb. 2nd: The blast was not squarely Earth-directed. Instead, it will deliver a glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field. NOAA forecasters estimate a 45% chance of polar geomagnetic storms when the cloud arrives on Sunday. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

DIAMOND DUST SKI HALO: Ski resorts are one of the best places to see sun halos--rings of light that surround the sun when ice crystals fill the air. The most sublime halos are caused by jewel-like crystals called "diamond dust." On Jan. 29th, Christian Schartner was skiing in Obertauern, Austria, when he witnessed this specimen: "The outside temperature was quite chilly at -12°C when we hit the slopes," says Schartner. "Beautiful sun halos made our skiing day even better!"

Most sun halos are caused by ice crystals floating high above Earth's surface in cirrus clouds. "Ski halos," on the other hand, are formed by ice crystals near the ground, kicked into the air by the action of skis and snow-making machines. A close look at Schartner's picture shows specks of light in the air. Those are the glittering crystals of diamond dust which make these halos so beautiful.

If you're on the slopes this weekend, and the sun dips behind a cloud of ice, be alert for "ski halos." They can make your day.